Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons basketball final score
Mon, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM ET · Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN
Non-conferenceESPN+Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN
W Illinois
2025-26: 5-26 · 1-19 conf
Efficiency #362
@
Valparaiso
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-10 conf
Efficiency #176
Final
5880
Final score
Projected 62.0 – 80.5
WIU win 6%VAL win 94%
MarketClose
Spread
VAL −18.5
open VAL −18.5
Total
139.0
open 142.5
Our line
VAL −18.5
as of Mon, Nov 2 · 7:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Valparaisorated 1.8 below average
−1.8
W Illinoisrated 16.9 below average
+16.9
Home court
+3.5
Our line
VAL −18.5
◂ W Illinois sideValparaiso side ▸
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Valparaiso. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Illinois is the faster team (67.3, #230 of 365) and Valparaiso the slower (66.1, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Market total
139.0
Market close · open 142.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#233
W Illinois
66.9#298
Valparaiso
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
VAL −18.5
Four factors 8.1Not in these stats 10.4
From the four factors
Valparaiso has the ball+2.5
W Illinois has the ball−5.6
Valparaiso has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.7% #115 · WIU forces 14.9% #297 · ~10 turnovers+1.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.5% #110 · WIU allows 34.8% #334+1.4
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.6% #322 · WIU allows 54.2% #303−0.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.1% #79 · WIU allows 34.8% #173 · FT 70.9% #244+0.1
W Illinois has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.5% #361 · VAL allows 50.5% #130−4.0
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.0% #293 · VAL allows 30.1% #167−1.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 17.5% #236 · VAL forces 16.9% #161 · ~11 turnovers−0.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 37.7% #108 · VAL allows 35.1% #179 · FT 66.2% #351−0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersW Illinoisoffense vsValparaisodefense
Share of shots by zone
W Illinois shoots
39.5
9.2
18.3
33.0
Valparaiso allows
40.3
8.0
14.8
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.3%#353 | 61.7%#293 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 29.0%#352 | 41.3%#217 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#293 | 29.6%#4 | 38.1% |
| Three | 30.9%#322 | 32.1%#70 | 33.7% |
Valparaisooffense vsW Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Valparaiso shoots
31.3
8.5
23.7
36.5
W Illinois allows
44.5
7.7
13.7
34.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.3%#258 | 62.3%#306 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.7%#320 | 40.5%#200 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#237 | 33.7%#44 | 38.1% |
| Three | 33.9%#180 | 35.6%#288 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersW Illinois
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#311 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#293
Def reb %
65.2%
#334
Turnover %
17.5%
#236
Forced TO %
14.9%
#297
FT rate
37.7%
#108
FT allowed
34.8%
#173
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Valparaiso
+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#61 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#110
Def reb %
69.9%
#167
Turnover %
15.7%
#115
Forced TO %
16.9%
#161
FT rate
39.1%
#79
FT allowed
35.1%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed0.0
Valparaiso has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#61 of 365) to W Illinois’s −3.4 (#311).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
W Illinois2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 28.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 28.6% | 19.0% | |
| 15 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 27.3 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 62.5% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-2 | 26.7 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 51.9% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 60.0% | 23.6% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 23.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 4.7 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 23 | F | So | 6'5" | 3-0 | 20.3 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 25.9% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 60.0% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 83.3% | 20.2% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 14.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 36.4% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 20.9% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'0" | 3-1 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 20.9% | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 41.7% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 16.6% | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 22.8% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 31.1% | |
| 12 | F | Sr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 35.8% | |
| 32 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 7.5% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameW Illinois
Against the spread
Season
11-17
Home
3-9
Road
8-8
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −8.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 2 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
12-15-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
6-10
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.2
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | Lindenwood | H | L 69–91 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 97.8 | 129.0 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | SIUE | A | L 47–67 | +14.0 | L−6.0 | 135.5 | U114 | 69.8 | 99.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Morehead St | H | L 59–81 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 92.9 | 127.6 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | S Indiana | H | L 70–77 | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 140.0 | O147 | 106.1 | 116.7 | 66.0 |
| Feb 12 | Little Rock | H | L 58–77 | +7.5 | L−11.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 81.8 | 108.7 | 70.9 |
| Feb 10 | E Illinois | H | W 79–70 | +4.5 | W+13.5 | 133.0 | O149 | 109.7 | 97.2 | 72.0 |
| Feb 7 | Tennessee St | A | L 56–83 | +14.5 | L−12.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 82.3 | 121.9 | 68.1 |
| Feb 5 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 72–97 | +9.5 | L−15.5 | 144.0 | O169 | 116.4 | 156.9 | 61.8 |
| Jan 31 | UT Martin | H | L 44–84 | +9.0 | L−31.0 | 138.0 | U128 | 67.9 | 129.6 | 64.8 |
| Jan 29 | SE Missouri | H | L 74–78 | +11.0 | W+7.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 106.9 | 112.7 | 69.2 |
Valparaiso
Against the spread
Season
19-12-1
Home
10-5-1
Road
9-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-16
Home
6-10
Road
9-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +7.2
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Bradley | N | L 84–90 2OT | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 138.5 | O174 | 95.8 | 102.6 | 87.7 |
| Mar 5 | Indiana St | N | W 63–62 | −2.5 | L−1.5 | 142.0 | U125 | 105.6 | 103.9 | 59.7 |
| Feb 28 | Evansville | A | L 79–80 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 116.4 | 117.9 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | Drake | H | W 74–71 | −3.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | U145 | 116.3 | 111.6 | 63.6 |
| Feb 21 | UIC | A | W 71–67 | +7.0 | W+11.0 | 138.5 | U138 | 110.6 | 104.3 | 64.2 |
| Feb 18 | Bradley | H | W 79–72 | +2.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 119.0 | 108.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 15 | Indiana St | H | W 76–75 | −5.0 | L−4.0 | 145.0 | O151 | 124.4 | 122.8 | 61.1 |
| Feb 12 | Illinois St | A | L 64–86 | +9.0 | L−13.0 | 138.5 | O150 | 93.6 | 125.8 | 68.4 |
| Feb 9 | Drake | A | W 81–76 | +3.5 | W+8.5 | 144.5 | O157 | 121.4 | 113.9 | 66.7 |
| Feb 6 | Evansville | H | W 70–63 OT | −8.5 | L−1.5 | 136.5 | U133 | 101.2 | 91.1 | 69.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeW IllinoisValparaiso
Efficiency
98.1
107.0
115.8
107.0
67.7
66.9
Shooting
44.5%
47.6%
43.5%
45.8%
30.9%
33.9%
66.2%
70.9%
37.7%
39.1%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
15.7%
14.9%
16.9%
27.0%
32.5%
34.8%
30.1%
10.0%
7.4%
11.1%
8.5%
Style
33.3%
36.8%
43.2%
36.8%
11.9%
7.1%
37.0%
48.8%
30.1%
34.9%
Roster
2.00
2.37
6'2.7"
6'6.2"
16.8%
47.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputW Illinois
Returning minutes: 16.8%Returning production: 13.9%
Lost
- Lucas Lorenzen 32.9 mpg, 14.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Griffin 28.4 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Francis Okwuosah 22.0 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Antwaun Massey 18.9 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Goanar Biliew 17.3 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Karyiek Dixon 16.3 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Shay Stephens no D1 minutes last season
- Matthieu Biembongo no D1 minutes last season
- Hunter Vaughn no D1 minutes last season
- Davee Flowers no D1 minutes last season
- Isaiah Davis no D1 minutes last season
- Abdoulaye Konate no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Valparaiso
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
- Owen Dease 26.9 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shon Tupuola 24.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Murray St
- Brody Whitaker 24.4 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaiah Barnes 11.7 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mark Brown Jr. 9.4 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Utah Tech
- Tucker Tornatta 7.2 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Bellarmine
Added
- Bruno Alocen from Indiana St · 21.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Kai Yu from Bradley · 7.1 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Hudson Scroggins no D1 minutes last season
- Justin Curry II no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Moles no D1 minutes last season
- Terron Garrett no D1 minutes last season
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -18.5-112 | 142.5→139.5o-108 u-112 | -3600 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -18.5-115 | 140.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | -4500 | +1600 |
| BetMGM | -18.5-115 | 142.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | -3000 | +1250 |
| BetRivers | -18.5-115 | 143.5→138.5o-113 u-110 | — | +1400 |
| Fanatics | -18.5-110 | 142.5→139.5o-107 u-112 | -2200 | +1200 |
| BetOnline | -18.5→-19-110 | 143→139.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -19→-18.5-110 | 143→139.5o-110 u-110 | -3500 | +1100 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5-110 | 143.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock | -18.5-115 | 143.5→138.5o-110 u-110 | — | +1400 |
| Kalshi | -18.5-104 | 138.5o-113 u+104 | -3233 | +1900 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -2400 | +1567 |
| Novig | -18.5-106 | 142.5→— | -2339 | +1900 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.