CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
Southern
Efficiency #286
2025-26: 17-17 · 13-8 conf
@
SMU
Efficiency #44
2025-26: 20-14 · 9-11 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
71.5
win 9%
Projected
87.3
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: SMU −15.8 · total 158.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SMU 69.1, Southern 70.0 → 70.8 possessions
+5.3
SMU offense vs Southern defense
+8.5
Southern offense vs SMU defense
−3.3
Projected total
158.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SMU offense vs Southern defense
+8.5
Southern offense vs SMU defense
+3.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
SMU by 15.8
15.8
Southern side ◂▸ SMU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 158.7 against a projected 158.8, and the margin steps add to +15.9 against +15.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SMU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern is the faster team (71.5, #31 of 365) and SMU the slower (70.6, #73). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.8
model
Projected team totals
71.5 / 87.3
Southern / SMU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#52
Southern
69.1#108
SMU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSMU
Where SMU scores: shooting
SMU shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); Southern allows 53.2% (#274). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
SMU averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Southern 71.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassSMU
SMU owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.3% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for SMU's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SMU, Southern's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Southern at about 38.8% of its shots from three, SMU about 35.3%.
AdvantageSouthern
Where Southern struggles: shooting
Southern shoots an effective 49.1% (#287); SMU allows 51.6% (#189). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSouthern
Southern's ball-hawking
Southern ranks #36 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.7% of SMU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Southern has the ball
OffenseSMU allowsvs D1 avg
49.1% #287
51.6% #189
-1.5 pt/100
16.5% #170
16.8% #164
+0.1 pt/100
31.4% #144
31.6% #237
+0.8 pt/100
39.8% #61
32.1% #107
+0.1 pt/100
69.5% #284
—
-0.3 pt/100
Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100
SMU has the ball
OffenseSouthern allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #26
53.2% #274
+5.0 pt/100
15.7% #116
18.6% #66
-0.7 pt/100
35.4% #37
31.3% #217
+2.4 pt/100
30.4% #301
42.9% #338
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #117
—
+0.2 pt/100
SMU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Southernoffense vsSMUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern shoots
SMU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.5%#25560.8%#26358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.8%#29137.0%#11139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.5%#34338.3%#16938.0%
Three34.8%#12934.1%#18833.7%
SMUoffense vsSoutherndefense
Share of shots by zone
SMU shoots
Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.0%#3859.7%#21558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.5%#1738.6%#14939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2535.9%#10638.0%
Three37.1%#2736.7%#33933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Southern
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#143 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#144
Def reb %
68.7%
#217
Turnover %
16.5%
#170
Forced TO %
18.6%
#66
FT rate
39.8%
#61
FT allowed
42.9%
#338
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.0
SMU
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#112 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#37
Def reb %
68.4%
#237
Turnover %
15.7%
#116
Forced TO %
16.8%
#164
FT rate
30.4%
#301
FT allowed
32.1%
#107
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8

SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#112 of 365) to Southern’s +0.9 (#143).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Southern2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Michael JacobsGSr6'2"32-2532.117.33.65.12.644.9%33.9%3.966.2%34.7%
1DaMariee JonesFSr6'5"30-2225.49.96.51.40.958.9%0.0%0.166.7%19.8%
3Cam AmboreeGSr6'3"28-1827.09.62.53.62.145.5%37.5%4.380.3%23.6%
23Terrance Dixon Jr.FSr6'8"34-3020.59.04.30.50.969.3%—0.062.3%20.3%
14Fazl OshodiGSo6'3"34-1820.38.91.40.70.552.9%34.9%5.193.5%23.2%
4Brandon HardyGJr6'3"33-1019.03.82.20.70.853.4%35.8%1.675.0%12.4%
12AJ BarnesFSr6'6"28-2022.08.34.81.60.845.7%36.5%2.674.6%23.6%
8Malek AbdelgowadFSr6'10"28-517.110.66.20.51.562.3%50.0%0.472.8%30.9%
2Joe ManningGSr6'2"30-611.63.10.71.60.942.4%32.7%1.787.0%19.8%
35Puoch DobuolFSr6'8"19-88.51.61.40.40.431.7%33.3%0.3100.0%17.6%
11Keith LamarFSr6'6"7-215.72.31.70.70.729.6%19.0%3.0—15.6%
13Lionel BellFFr6'9"18-15.81.41.70.20.452.4%—0.040.0%17.1%
0Rondae HillGSo6'0"6-414.77.21.21.81.257.1%43.5%3.850.0%25.4%
5Jayce DepronGSo6'3"5-07.63.61.20.20.252.9%30.8%2.6—22.5%
30D'Mari WiltzGSr—3-07.30.00.70.31.30.0%0.0%0.3—12.9%
9Andre NunleyGSr5'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Femi OlaniyanFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Trey ShephardGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SouthernSMU
Efficiency
105.6
117.0
112.0
106.7
70.0
69.1
—
—
Shooting
49.1%
55.6%
47.7%
55.6%
34.8%
37.1%
69.5%
74.3%
39.8%
30.4%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
15.7%
18.6%
16.8%
31.4%
35.4%
31.3%
31.6%
8.8%
9.3%
10.0%
7.5%
Style
32.1%
35.9%
44.5%
43.7%
16.3%
13.4%
52.6%
54.9%
40.6%
22.4%
Roster
3.61
2.18
6'4.6"
6'9"
94.9%
53.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Southern
Returning minutes: 94.9%Returning production: 97.0%
Lost
  • Ashton Magee 10.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
  • Femi Olaniyan no D1 minutes last season
  • Andre Nunley no D1 minutes last season
  • Trey Shephard no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 95% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SMU
Returning minutes: 53.0%Returning production: 45.5%
Lost
  • Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Added
  • Billy White III no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.