CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSiegel Center, Richmond, VA

Little Rock

Efficiency #300

2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf

VCU

Efficiency #39

2025-26: 28-8 · 18-3 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM ET

66.7

win 8%

Projected

83.3

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: VCU −16.6 · total 150.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VCU 69.1, Little Rock 67.7 → 68.5 possessions

+0.4

VCU offense vs Little Rock defense

+7.0

Little Rock offense vs VCU defense

−5.7

Projected total

150.0

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VCU offense vs Little Rock defense

+7.0

Little Rock offense vs VCU defense

+5.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

VCU by 16.6

16.6

Little Rock side ◂▸ VCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.9 against a projected 150.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, VCU is the faster team (69.2, #132 of 365) and Little Rock the slower (67.6, #217). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.0

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 83.3

Little Rock / VCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.7#233

Little Rock

69.1#109

VCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLittle Rock

Where Little Rock struggles: shooting

Little Rock shoots an effective 49.4% (#273); VCU allows 49.0% (#69). Expect about 49.0%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLittle Rock

Style match: 3-point volume

Little Rock rarely shoots threes (31.0% of its shots); VCU runs teams off the line (35.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageVCU

Where VCU scores: the offensive glass

VCU rebounds 31.6% of its own misses (#139); Little Rock lets opponents grab 36.6% of their own misses (#357). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VCU) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Little Rock at about 29.8% of its shots from three, VCU about 43.5%.

DefenseLittle Rock

Little Rock's shot-blocking

Little Rock ranks #37 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of VCU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashLittle Rock

Style match: paint scoring

Little Rock scores 47.2% of its points in the paint; VCU gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.2% — both habits push the same way.

Little Rock has the ball

OffenseVCU allowsvs D1 avg

49.4% #273

49.0% #69

-3.2 pt/100

18.4% #293

17.0% #158

-1.3 pt/100

31.5% #143

30.0% #162

+0.3 pt/100

27.7% #345

32.8% #126

-0.6 pt/100

68.0% #327

—

-0.4 pt/100

Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

VCU has the ball

OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #78

51.8% #199

+2.3 pt/100

15.1% #75

18.5% #71

-0.2 pt/100

31.6% #139

36.6% #357

+2.4 pt/100

42.0% #30

33.1% #134

+0.3 pt/100

73.6% #150

—

+0.1 pt/100

VCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Little Rockoffense vsVCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Little Rock shoots

36.0

6.9

25.9

31.2

VCU allows

44.1

6.5

14.1

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.8%#57	52.9%#23	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.4%#323	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.6%#349	36.4%#119	38.0%
Three	35.3%#96	33.0%#125	33.7%

VCUoffense vsLittle Rockdefense

Share of shots by zone

VCU shoots

39.0

7.4

9.7

43.9

Little Rock allows

41.3

5.8

12.8

40.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#271	62.6%#315	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	28.7%#10	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#9	29.6%#5	38.0%
Three	36.3%#46	34.4%#211	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Little Rock

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365

Off reb %

31.5%

#143

Def reb %

63.4%

#357

Turnover %

18.4%

#293

Forced TO %

18.5%

#71

FT rate

27.7%

#345

FT allowed

33.1%

#134

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.9

Foul shots allowed+0.6

VCU

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#33 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#139

Def reb %

70.0%

#162

Turnover %

15.1%

#75

Forced TO %

17.0%

#158

FT rate

42.0%

#30

FT allowed

32.8%

#126

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

VCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.3 (#33 of 365) to Little Rock’s −2.8 (#296).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Little Rock2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Johnathan Lawson	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	36.7	16.2	4.1	4.1	2.0	48.7%	34.7%	7.2	82.8%	27.3%
0	Braxton Bayless	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	10.3	3.9	3.3	2.4	46.5%	35.1%	3.0	70.4%	22.7%
24	Cameron Wallace	F	Jr	6'8"	32-22	28.6	12.7	6.9	1.8	1.7	49.0%	5.3%	0.6	57.4%	29.0%
32	Tuongthach Gatkek	F	Sr	6'9"	29-29	31.4	9.4	5.9	2.0	1.8	59.1%	25.0%	0.1	66.2%	17.6%
15	Kachi Nzeh	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	28.4	11.7	4.8	1.3	1.8	54.9%	41.5%	3.7	69.9%	24.9%
22	Truman Claytor IV	F	Jr	6'6"	28-0	16.2	6.3	1.5	0.7	1.2	47.0%	34.3%	2.4	72.4%	27.5%
10	Caleb Pennyfeather	F	So	6'9"	29-4	11.8	2.2	2.3	0.3	0.3	45.5%	100.0%	0.0	33.3%	14.2%
12	Tracy Steele Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	24-0	10.9	1.7	1.3	0.6	0.8	43.6%	38.1%	0.9	35.3%	14.6%
23	Terrion Burgess	F	Fr	6'9"	6-4	23.5	7.5	3.2	1.2	1.2	71.2%	42.9%	1.2	66.7%	15.9%
1	Joseph Thomas	G	So	6'3"	13-1	10.5	3.2	0.8	0.3	0.4	50.0%	45.5%	1.7	80.0%	19.7%
5	Christian Hughes	G	So	6'2"	9-5	15.0	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	18.4%	14.3%	0.8	25.0%	9.9%
4	Kellen Robinson	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Khasen Robinson	G	So	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	KK Robinson	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Travonne Jackson	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Little Rock2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Johnathan Lawson	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	36.7	16.2	4.1	4.1	2.0	48.7%	34.7%	7.2	82.8%	27.3%
0	Braxton Bayless	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	10.3	3.9	3.3	2.4	46.5%	35.1%	3.0	70.4%	22.7%
24	Cameron Wallace	F	Jr	6'8"	32-22	28.6	12.7	6.9	1.8	1.7	49.0%	5.3%	0.6	57.4%	29.0%
32	Tuongthach Gatkek	F	Sr	6'9"	29-29	31.4	9.4	5.9	2.0	1.8	59.1%	25.0%	0.1	66.2%	17.6%
15	Kachi Nzeh	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	28.4	11.7	4.8	1.3	1.8	54.9%	41.5%	3.7	69.9%	24.9%
22	Truman Claytor IV	F	Jr	6'6"	28-0	16.2	6.3	1.5	0.7	1.2	47.0%	34.3%	2.4	72.4%	27.5%
10	Caleb Pennyfeather	F	So	6'9"	29-4	11.8	2.2	2.3	0.3	0.3	45.5%	100.0%	0.0	33.3%	14.2%
12	Tracy Steele Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	24-0	10.9	1.7	1.3	0.6	0.8	43.6%	38.1%	0.9	35.3%	14.6%
23	Terrion Burgess	F	Fr	6'9"	6-4	23.5	7.5	3.2	1.2	1.2	71.2%	42.9%	1.2	66.7%	15.9%
1	Joseph Thomas	G	So	6'3"	13-1	10.5	3.2	0.8	0.3	0.4	50.0%	45.5%	1.7	80.0%	19.7%
5	Christian Hughes	G	So	6'2"	9-5	15.0	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	18.4%	14.3%	0.8	25.0%	9.9%
4	Kellen Robinson	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Khasen Robinson	G	So	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	KK Robinson	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Travonne Jackson	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Little Rock

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-7

Road

8-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-4

Road

8-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.4

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	N	L 62–72	+4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U134	80.1	93.0	77.4
Feb 28	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	W 89–70	−6.0	W+13.0	139.5	O159	132.8	104.5	67.0
Feb 26	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 70–76	−2.5	L−8.5	139.0	O146	108.5	117.8	64.5
Feb 21	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	H	L 65–70	+2.5	L−2.5	144.0	U135	95.3	102.6	68.2
Feb 19	UT MartinAdjEM #182	H	W 67–65	+2.5	W+4.5	136.0	U132	112.3	109.0	59.6
Feb 14	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	L 72–78	−1.5	L−7.5	135.5	O150	108.4	117.5	66.4
Feb 12	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–58	−7.5	W+11.5	142.0	U135	108.7	81.8	70.9
Feb 7	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 61–71	−1.5	L−11.5	133.0	U132	90.5	105.3	67.4
Feb 5	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 74–79	+1.5	L−3.5	150.5	O153	109.2	116.6	67.8
Feb 3	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 52–55	+6.5	W+3.5	138.5	U107	83.8	88.6	62.1

VCU

Against the spread

Season

17-17-2

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-20

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–76	+12.0	L−9.0	150.5	U131	83.4	115.2	66.0
Mar 19	#6North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 82–78 OT	+2.5	W+6.5	151.0	O160	107.1	101.9	76.5
Mar 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	W 70–62	−2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 14	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	W 77–64	−6.5	W+6.5	146.0	U141	118.4	98.4	65.0
Mar 13	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	W 71–66	−7.0	L−2.0	153.0	U137	109.6	101.9	64.8
Mar 6	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 68–62	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U130	112.1	102.2	60.6
Mar 3	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 70–65	−10.0	L−5.0	147.5	U135	115.1	106.9	60.8
Feb 28	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	W 82–63	−12.5	W+6.5	143.5	O145	120.2	92.4	68.2
Feb 20	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 75–88	+7.5	L−5.5	164.5	U163	97.3	114.1	77.1
Feb 17	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 89–75	−6.0	W+8.0	161.5	O164	130.2	109.7	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Little RockVCU

Efficiency

104.6

115.3

111.9

104.1

67.7

69.1

—

Shooting

49.4%

53.6%

47.9%

53.0%

35.3%

36.3%

68.0%

73.6%

27.7%

42.0%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

15.1%

18.5%

17.0%

31.5%

31.6%

36.6%

30.0%

10.6%

9.0%

5.6%

9.0%

Style

31.0%

43.8%

47.2%

40.2%

16.2%

14.3%

52.2%

51.9%

20.6%

37.9%

Roster

3.39

2.49

6'6.5"

6'5.4"

—

83.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Little Rock

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

VCU

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 87.1%

Lost

Barry Evans 26.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyshawn Mitchell 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Obinnaya Okafor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.