CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAmica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI

Maine

Efficiency #335

2025-26: 8-24 · 6-11 conf

Providence

Efficiency #81

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

66.7

win 9%

Projected

82.1

win 91%

No line posted yet.

Model: PROV −15.4 · total 148.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Providence 70.9, Maine 66.6 → 69.2 possessions

+1.9

Providence offense vs Maine defense

+5.0

Maine offense vs Providence defense

−6.4

Projected total

148.8

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Providence offense vs Maine defense

+5.0

Maine offense vs Providence defense

+6.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Providence by 15.4

15.4

Maine side ◂▸ Providence side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.7 against a projected 148.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Providence.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and Maine the slower (64.9, #332). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.8

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 82.1

Maine / Providence

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#315

Maine

70.9#18

Providence

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMaine

Where Maine struggles: the offensive glass

Maine rebounds 19.7% of its own misses (#364); Providence lets opponents grab 30.8% of their own misses (#195). Expect about 23.1%, 7.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Providence averages 72.3 possessions per 40, Maine 64.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageProvidence

Where Providence scores: shooting

Providence shoots an effective 55.0% (#37); Maine allows 50.6% (#136). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Providence, Maine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Maine at about 36.9% of its shots from three, Providence about 38.6%.

TurnoversProvidence

Providence turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.4% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Providence's offense.

DefenseMaine

Maine's ball-hawking

Maine ranks #25 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Providence's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Maine has the ball

OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #263

51.4% #179

-1.3 pt/100

19.1% #325

13.1% #352

+1.2 pt/100

19.7% #364

30.8% #195

-4.4 pt/100

38.4% #93

32.7% #125

+0.0 pt/100

64.3% #363

—

-0.7 pt/100

Maine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

Providence has the ball

OffenseMaine allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #37

50.6% #136

+2.6 pt/100

16.7% #174

19.4% #36

-2.0 pt/100

31.7% #135

34.3% #322

+1.7 pt/100

36.7% #138

33.9% #148

+0.0 pt/100

75.7% #60

—

+0.3 pt/100

Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Maineoffense vsProvidencedefense

Share of shots by zone

Maine shoots

41.9

3.7

17.1

37.3

Providence allows

37.3

6.1

18.4

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.2%#263	57.2%#121	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.1%#101	46.7%#329	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.9%#148	37.9%#154	38.0%
Three	31.2%#314	35.3%#265	33.7%

Providenceoffense vsMainedefense

Share of shots by zone

Providence shoots

40.7

4.6

14.1

40.5

Maine allows

41.6

5.6

16.3

36.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#88	60.5%#251	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#156	47.1%#334	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#107	42.5%#318	38.0%
Three	36.4%#45	29.3%#4	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Maine

−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#309 of 365

Off reb %

19.7%

#364

Def reb %

65.7%

#322

Turnover %

19.1%

#325

Forced TO %

19.4%

#36

FT rate

38.4%

#93

FT allowed

33.9%

#148

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.4

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Providence

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#135

Def reb %

69.2%

#195

Turnover %

16.7%

#174

Forced TO %

13.1%

#352

FT rate

36.7%

#138

FT allowed

32.7%

#125

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Providence has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#228 of 365) to Maine’s −3.2 (#309).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Maine2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Maine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	TJ Biel	F	Sr	6'9"	30-30	32.5	11.7	4.2	1.3	1.0	50.5%	33.0%	3.6	68.7%	23.1%
3	Ryan Mabrey	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	27.9	7.4	3.0	1.5	1.2	49.3%	34.3%	4.7	66.7%	18.9%
0	Logan Carey	G	Jr	6'3"	32-27	25.4	9.7	2.8	2.4	1.8	54.0%	35.6%	1.8	64.8%	25.0%
11	Ace Flagg	F	Fr	6'7"	32-11	24.2	6.7	4.1	1.5	1.6	50.9%	35.6%	1.8	69.7%	19.6%
24	Mekhi Gray	G	Sr	6'4"	28-23	26.5	9.7	2.9	1.9	1.9	53.8%	30.2%	2.3	69.2%	23.8%
4	Caleb Crawford	G	So	6'0"	32-6	19.9	4.4	1.1	1.8	1.3	42.0%	26.3%	1.8	65.9%	18.6%
25	Keelan Steele	F	Sr	6'10"	24-23	20.6	8.1	4.5	0.9	2.0	60.5%	0.0%	0.1	56.3%	26.0%
14	Amare Allen	F	So	6'7"	24-5	13.8	3.8	1.6	0.3	0.8	42.9%	28.1%	1.3	55.9%	21.9%
6	Yanis Bamba	F	Jr	6'6"	25-2	11.5	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.4	39.5%	18.8%	1.3	60.0%	20.4%
64	Bashir N'Galang	G	Fr	6'3"	21-4	13.0	4.0	1.4	1.2	1.3	44.6%	18.2%	0.5	57.9%	24.4%
5	Isaac Bonilla	G	Jr	6'1"	22-0	8.8	2.2	1.0	0.3	0.5	60.0%	40.0%	1.6	0.0%	16.1%
12	Emmitt Byther	F	Fr	6'6"	11-0	3.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	1.7%
10	Killian Gribben	F	Sr	6'10"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	58.1%
8	Darius Lopes	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	John Shea	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Joshua Ojuri	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Maine2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Maine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	TJ Biel	F	Sr	6'9"	30-30	32.5	11.7	4.2	1.3	1.0	50.5%	33.0%	3.6	68.7%	23.1%
3	Ryan Mabrey	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	27.9	7.4	3.0	1.5	1.2	49.3%	34.3%	4.7	66.7%	18.9%
0	Logan Carey	G	Jr	6'3"	32-27	25.4	9.7	2.8	2.4	1.8	54.0%	35.6%	1.8	64.8%	25.0%
11	Ace Flagg	F	Fr	6'7"	32-11	24.2	6.7	4.1	1.5	1.6	50.9%	35.6%	1.8	69.7%	19.6%
24	Mekhi Gray	G	Sr	6'4"	28-23	26.5	9.7	2.9	1.9	1.9	53.8%	30.2%	2.3	69.2%	23.8%
4	Caleb Crawford	G	So	6'0"	32-6	19.9	4.4	1.1	1.8	1.3	42.0%	26.3%	1.8	65.9%	18.6%
25	Keelan Steele	F	Sr	6'10"	24-23	20.6	8.1	4.5	0.9	2.0	60.5%	0.0%	0.1	56.3%	26.0%
14	Amare Allen	F	So	6'7"	24-5	13.8	3.8	1.6	0.3	0.8	42.9%	28.1%	1.3	55.9%	21.9%
6	Yanis Bamba	F	Jr	6'6"	25-2	11.5	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.4	39.5%	18.8%	1.3	60.0%	20.4%
64	Bashir N'Galang	G	Fr	6'3"	21-4	13.0	4.0	1.4	1.2	1.3	44.6%	18.2%	0.5	57.9%	24.4%
5	Isaac Bonilla	G	Jr	6'1"	22-0	8.8	2.2	1.0	0.3	0.5	60.0%	40.0%	1.6	0.0%	16.1%
12	Emmitt Byther	F	Fr	6'6"	11-0	3.0	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	1.7%
10	Killian Gribben	F	Sr	6'10"	1-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	58.1%
8	Darius Lopes	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	John Shea	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Joshua Ojuri	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Maine

Against the spread

Season

13-17-1

Home

3-8

Road

8-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18-2

Home

3-8

Road

8-8-2

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	NJITAdjEM #331	A	L 58–60	+3.5	W+1.5	133.5	U118	89.5	92.5	64.8
Mar 3	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	L 56–67	+1.0	L−10.0	140.5	U123	85.2	102.0	65.7
Feb 28	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	L 67–74	+1.0	L−6.0	134.0	O141	101.8	112.4	65.8
Feb 26	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	A	W 70–59	+5.5	W+16.5	131.5	U129	116.3	98.0	60.2
Feb 21	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 61–58	+3.5	W+6.5	136.0	U119	93.8	89.2	65.0
Feb 14	NJITAdjEM #331	H	L 58–67	+2.0	L−7.0	137.0	U125	85.7	98.9	67.7
Feb 12	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 62–78	+3.5	L−12.5	135.5	O140	91.6	115.3	67.7
Feb 7	BryantAdjEM #347	A	L 67–73	+2.5	L−3.5	128.0	O140	98.8	107.7	67.8
Feb 5	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 76–70	+7.5	W+13.5	130.0	O146	120.7	111.2	63.0
Jan 31	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 77–91	+4.5	L−9.5	137.5	O168	108.3	128.0	71.1

Providence

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-7

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

11-5

Road

8-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 72–85	+12.0	L−1.0	159.5	U157	95.4	112.6	75.5
Mar 11	ButlerAdjEM #87	N	W 91–81	−2.0	W+8.0	162.5	O172	125.4	111.6	72.6
Mar 7	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	L 79–80	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O159	108.5	109.8	72.8
Mar 4	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	L 56–78	−4.5	L−26.5	162.0	U134	78.9	109.9	71.0
Feb 28	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 79–76	+4.0	W+7.0	167.0	U155	116.3	111.9	67.9
Feb 25	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 94–84	−5.5	W+4.5	170.0	O178	135.3	120.9	69.5
Feb 21	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 71–68	+3.0	W+6.0	152.5	U139	105.7	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	167.0	U148	91.6	104.9	75.3
Feb 11	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 80–87	+5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O167	116.8	127.1	68.5
Feb 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	W 90–72	−5.0	W+13.0	153.5	O162	125.8	100.6	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MaineProvidence

Efficiency

98.0

115.4

108.8

109.8

66.6

70.9

—

Shooting

49.6%

55.0%

51.2%

55.3%

31.2%

36.4%

64.3%

75.7%

38.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

19.1%

16.7%

19.4%

13.1%

19.7%

31.7%

34.3%

30.8%

9.5%

10.4%

9.0%

8.6%

Style

37.0%

40.5%

45.1%

43.4%

13.6%

14.3%

54.4%

47.5%

32.9%

30.8%

Roster

2.99

2.57

6'5.3"

6'6.4"

—

73.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Maine

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Maine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Providence

Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%

Lost

Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.