CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceRobins Center, Richmond, VA

UNC Asheville

Efficiency #226

2025-26: 15-17 · 9-9 conf

Richmond

Efficiency #150

2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

69.2

win 29%

Projected

75.7

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: RICH −6.5 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Richmond 68.5, UNC Asheville 66.6 → 66.8 possessions

−3.3

Richmond offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+1.3

UNC Asheville offense vs Richmond defense

−1.3

Projected total

145.0

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Richmond offense vs UNC Asheville defense

+1.3

UNC Asheville offense vs Richmond defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Richmond by 6.5

6.5

UNC Asheville side ◂▸ Richmond side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.9 against a projected 145.0, and the margin steps add to +6.4 against +6.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Richmond.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Richmond is the faster team (68.5, #172 of 365) and UNC Asheville the slower (67.1, #238). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.0

model

Projected team totals

69.2 / 75.7

UNC Asheville / Richmond

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#311

UNC Asheville

68.5#169

Richmond

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRichmond

Where Richmond scores: ball control

Richmond turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#33); UNC Asheville forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#252). Expect about 14.5%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassRichmond

Richmond gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Richmond's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Richmond) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Asheville at about 38.7% of its shots from three, Richmond about 41.2%.

ClashRichmond

Style clash: paint scoring

Richmond gets only 34.0% of its points in the paint; UNC Asheville gives up 46.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

ClashUNC Asheville

Style clash: 3-point volume

UNC Asheville rarely shoots threes (33.6% of its shots); Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

UNC Asheville has the ball

OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #194

52.0% #216

+0.3 pt/100

17.4% #231

17.7% #110

-1.2 pt/100

29.8% #211

31.0% #200

-0.1 pt/100

40.0% #60

35.1% #181

+0.3 pt/100

68.4% #317

—

-0.4 pt/100

UNC Asheville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100

Richmond has the ball

OffenseUNC Asheville allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #115

51.3% #175

+1.2 pt/100

14.3% #33

15.5% #252

+2.7 pt/100

25.0% #340

31.3% #218

-2.0 pt/100

36.9% #133

38.7% #279

+0.4 pt/100

75.2% #76

—

+0.2 pt/100

Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Ashevilleoffense vsRichmonddefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Asheville shoots

32.0

10.4

24.2

33.5

Richmond allows

33.3

7.3

14.2

45.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#232	64.5%#345	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.8%#40	39.5%#172	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#67	39.8%#236	38.0%
Three	35.1%#110	32.7%#103	33.7%

Richmondoffense vsUNC Ashevilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Richmond shoots

29.1

5.8

22.7

42.5

UNC Asheville allows

44.2

5.6

11.9

38.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.1%#116	57.3%#125	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#230	36.4%#99	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#87	40.9%#272	38.0%
Three	37.1%#28	32.6%#93	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Asheville

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#249 of 365

Off reb %

29.8%

#211

Def reb %

68.7%

#218

Turnover %

17.4%

#231

Forced TO %

15.5%

#252

FT rate

40.0%

#60

FT allowed

38.7%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Richmond

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365

Off reb %

25.0%

#340

Def reb %

69.0%

#200

Turnover %

14.3%

#33

Forced TO %

17.7%

#110

FT rate

36.9%

#133

FT allowed

35.1%

#181

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed0.0

Richmond has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#135 of 365) to UNC Asheville’s −1.3 (#249).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Richmond2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	AJ Lopez	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	25.8	13.4	2.2	1.3	0.9	54.1%	39.4%	3.3	86.2%	26.7%
3	Aiden Argabright	G	Fr	5'11"	31-3	23.5	10.8	2.0	2.0	0.8	49.2%	35.0%	2.6	82.9%	24.3%
21	Mike Walz	C	Sr	6'11"	32-32	21.2	7.9	6.4	2.3	1.5	55.9%	38.5%	2.4	75.6%	22.8%
5	Collin Tanner	G	Jr	6'6"	29-22	18.6	5.9	3.2	0.8	0.6	50.7%	29.2%	2.2	75.0%	19.4%
2	Jaden Daughtry	F	Jr	6'7"	31-4	15.7	8.9	3.0	0.6	1.4	57.8%	45.3%	1.7	59.7%	33.5%
12	David Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	31-7	14.1	4.2	1.1	0.5	0.5	55.4%	42.1%	1.8	87.5%	17.3%
33	Apostolos Roumoglou	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	15.4	2.9	3.3	1.1	0.4	43.0%	22.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Jonathan Beagle	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	14.9	6.0	4.6	1.5	1.0	54.3%	0.0%	0.1	61.1%	24.1%
11	Will Harper III	G	Fr	6'4"	13-0	11.2	3.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	39.7%	29.4%	1.3	84.2%	22.7%
35	Bryson McGlothin	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	4.3	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	27.1%
15	Kirby Mooney	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	27.6%
8	Donovan Richardson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Dylan Homenick	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Asheville2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Toyaz Solomon	F	Sr	6'9"	32-28	33.4	16.9	7.4	2.0	2.2	50.0%	36.3%	2.8	68.4%	32.1%
55	Justin Wright	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	33.0	17.1	3.1	3.0	2.3	53.8%	37.3%	3.9	78.8%	30.6%
8	DJ Patrick	G	Sr	6'6"	29-27	33.8	9.6	4.0	0.8	1.0	53.4%	39.3%	6.1	73.2%	17.0%
5	Myles Mayfield	F	Fr	6'8"	32-15	22.9	4.5	4.3	0.8	1.2	62.5%	66.7%	0.1	42.1%	13.0%
13	Daniel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	30-19	20.2	2.8	4.9	0.4	0.9	45.7%	0.0%	0.1	54.3%	11.1%
1	Julian Clarke	PG	So	6'1"	26-0	10.3	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.5	58.1%	40.6%	1.2	55.6%	12.0%
44	Sage Tolentino	F	Jr	7'1"	27-3	9.3	1.1	1.8	0.3	0.3	57.9%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	7.3%
24	Corey Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	18-1	8.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.2	33.3%	14.3%	0.8	0.0%	7.9%
11	Jakel Powell	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	12.5	3.2	1.5	0.6	0.3	40.3%	28.0%	2.5	77.8%	17.0%
23	David Hermes	F	Sr	6'10"	8-4	11.5	0.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	3.9%
7	Connor Dubsky	G	Jr	6'4"	1-0	13.0	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	83.3%	55.6%	9.0	—	44.6%
2	Rasheed Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	3-1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	18.8%	12.5%	2.7	—	51.7%
10	Hugo Maton	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	100.0%	66.7%	1.5	—	24.7%
14	Brayden Rivers	SF	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Mitchell Taylor	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Asheville

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

5-7

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-8

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 71–75	+13.0	W+9.0	147.5	U146	104.6	110.5	67.9
Mar 6	LongwoodAdjEM #248	N	W 85–82 OT	+1.0	W+4.0	141.0	O167	111.0	107.1	76.5
Feb 28	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	L 75–92	−4.0	L−21.0	149.5	O167	105.9	129.9	70.8
Feb 26	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 77–71	−12.5	L−6.5	145.5	O148	124.2	114.6	62.0
Feb 21	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	W 74–73 OT	−2.0	L−1.0	149.0	U147	104.3	102.9	71.0
Feb 19	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 48–74	+15.0	L−11.0	152.0	U122	74.6	115.0	64.4
Feb 14	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	L 57–58	−4.5	L−5.5	136.5	U115	90.5	92.1	63.0
Feb 12	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	W 79–74	+2.0	W+7.0	142.5	O153	117.1	109.7	67.5
Feb 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 76–67	−6.5	W+2.5	140.5	O143	112.5	99.2	67.6
Jan 31	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 71–84	+10.0	L−3.0	150.5	O155	109.5	129.5	64.8

Richmond

Against the spread

Season

15-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

8-9

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	N	L 67–75	−4.5	L−12.5	141.5	O142	107.2	120.0	62.5
Mar 7	DuquesneAdjEM #131	A	L 77–79	+4.5	W+2.5	148.0	O156	116.8	119.9	65.9
Mar 3	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 60–65	+5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	97.0	105.1	61.8
Feb 28	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	A	L 66–69	−2.5	L−5.5	146.5	U135	91.7	95.9	72.0
Feb 21	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 99–94	−1.0	W+4.0	148.5	O193	134.8	128.0	73.4
Feb 18	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	L 63–65	+5.0	W+3.0	140.5	U128	98.8	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 67–78	+8.5	L−2.5	156.0	U145	95.9	111.6	69.9
Feb 10	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 82–70	+3.0	W+15.0	140.0	O152	116.9	99.8	70.1
Feb 7	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	L 77–82	+6.0	W+1.0	141.0	O159	113.2	120.5	68.0
Jan 31	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	L 54–79	−2.0	L−27.0	140.5	U133	93.5	136.8	57.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC AshevilleRichmond

Efficiency

106.1

110.1

108.9

66.6

68.5

—

Shooting

51.0%

52.7%

50.1%

50.5%

35.1%

37.1%

68.4%

75.2%

40.0%

36.9%

Ball control & glass

17.4%

14.3%

15.5%

17.7%

29.8%

25.0%

31.3%

31.0%

9.3%

7.8%

7.7%

Style

33.6%

42.6%

44.9%

34.0%

10.4%

16.1%

40.4%

54.5%

24.1%

43.4%

Roster

3.00

3.10

6'6.3"

6'5.6"

82.9%

72.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Asheville

Returning minutes: 82.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Kam Taylor 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Brayden Rivers no D1 minutes last season
Mitchell Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Richmond

Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart

Added

Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.