CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStrahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Texas A&M-CC
Efficiency #181
2025-26: 18-15 · 14-10 conf
@
Texas St
Efficiency #249
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
68.5
win 45%
Projected
69.9
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: TXST −1.4 · total 138.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas St 67.6, Texas A&M-CC 67.4 → 66.6 possessions
−3.7
Texas St offense vs Texas A&M-CC defense
−4.3
Texas A&M-CC offense vs Texas St defense
−1.8
Projected total
138.5
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Texas St offense vs Texas A&M-CC defense
−4.3
Texas A&M-CC offense vs Texas St defense
+1.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Texas St by 1.4
1.4
Texas A&M-CC side ◂▸ Texas St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.4 against a projected 138.5, and the margin steps add to +1.3 against +1.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Texas St is the faster team (67.3, #231 of 365) and Texas A&M-CC the slower (66.6, #264). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.5
model
Projected team totals
68.5 / 69.9
Texas A&M-CC / Texas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#260
Texas A&M-CC
67.6#245
Texas St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashTexas St
Style match: 3-point volume
Texas St rarely shoots threes (24.6% of its shots); Texas A&M-CC runs teams off the line (34.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 24.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageTexas A&M-CC
Where Texas A&M-CC struggles: ball control
Texas A&M-CC turns it over on 19.4% of possessions (#334); Texas St forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#72). Expect about 19.4%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTexas St
Where Texas St struggles: ball control
Texas St turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#307); Texas A&M-CC forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#49). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Texas A&M-CC's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Texas A&M-CC at about 31.7% of its shots from three, Texas St about 24.6%.
DefenseTexas St
Texas St's ball-hawking
Texas St ranks #32 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.3% of Texas A&M-CC's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Texas A&M-CC has the ball
OffenseTexas St allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #270
52.0% #210
-1.0 pt/100
19.4% #334
18.5% #72
-3.2 pt/100
31.7% #137
28.4% #81
-0.0 pt/100
41.1% #46
39.1% #288
+0.7 pt/100
67.4% #334
—
-0.4 pt/100
Texas A&M-CC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100
Texas St has the ball
OffenseTexas A&M-CC allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #238
50.1% #104
-2.0 pt/100
18.6% #307
19.0% #49
-3.1 pt/100
33.9% #68
28.8% #95
+1.0 pt/100
34.0% #211
46.3% #353
+0.8 pt/100
76.2% #49
—
+0.3 pt/100
Texas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Texas A&M-CCoffense vsTexas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas A&M-CC shoots
Texas St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33457.8%#14058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.2%#7540.0%#19139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.2%#32832.7%#2438.0%
Three35.0%#12235.7%#29333.7%
Texas Stoffense vsTexas A&M-CCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas St shoots
Texas A&M-CC allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22457.9%#14458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14144.7%#28939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.2%#7536.5%#12038.0%
Three32.2%#27131.6%#4833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Texas A&M-CC
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#198 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#137
Def reb %
71.2%
#95
Turnover %
19.4%
#334
Forced TO %
19.0%
#49
FT rate
41.1%
#46
FT allowed
46.3%
#353
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.8
Texas St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#157 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#68
Def reb %
71.6%
#81
Turnover %
18.6%
#307
Forced TO %
18.5%
#72
FT rate
34.0%
#211
FT allowed
39.1%
#288
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−1.3
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−1.0

Texas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#157 of 365) to Texas A&M-CC’s −0.5 (#198).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Texas A&M-CC2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Texas A&M-CC's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
6Sheldon WilliamsFSr6'8"33-3025.411.86.91.01.456.5%29.7%1.164.3%27.0%
1Nick ShogbonyoGSr6'1"28-2626.911.93.51.41.755.0%42.5%4.080.7%25.6%
3Mason GibsonGSr6'0"30-1621.59.41.81.21.150.7%35.9%4.468.5%27.2%
2Leo TorborGSr6'3"33-1719.25.12.01.61.446.7%30.8%0.448.1%21.0%
22Franck YetnaFSr6'7"33-1518.86.83.51.20.754.5%40.8%1.565.3%20.9%
0D'Avian HoustonGSr6'2"27-1520.58.21.53.12.349.1%37.7%2.965.8%29.2%
99Cenker EvranFSr6'8"26-1821.35.85.10.91.056.9%—0.066.7%16.9%
10Daniel Michelini-JacksonGJr6'5"29-1217.55.53.31.41.046.2%33.3%2.390.5%21.2%
4Kam ParkerGSr6'2"26-817.34.42.11.51.042.5%26.2%2.380.0%18.8%
8Bryson WheatfallGFr6'4"26-511.33.61.90.60.539.5%25.0%0.564.3%23.4%
5Kobi PearsonFFr6'8"31-08.83.11.80.30.756.8%30.0%0.350.0%22.5%
11Jaden HaireFJr6'7"25-310.03.51.90.30.853.1%0.0%0.057.1%22.4%
14Cedric HortonGFr6'5"12-09.43.21.00.80.467.3%45.5%0.975.0%15.4%
24Jamal AmbroseFJr6'10"14-06.01.10.60.10.437.5%0.0%0.180.0%16.3%
13Trenton PaneGFr5'10"4-08.34.01.51.31.357.1%28.6%1.8—30.0%
7Kayden CrosbyFJr6'7"6-04.00.50.50.30.350.0%33.3%0.5—10.7%
20Michael OaksFJr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Texas A&M-CCTexas St
Efficiency
105.1
105.0
105.5
109.1
67.4
67.6
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
50.0%
48.1%
50.5%
35.0%
32.2%
67.4%
76.2%
41.1%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
18.6%
19.0%
18.5%
31.7%
33.9%
28.8%
28.4%
10.6%
11.6%
11.6%
10.1%
Style
31.4%
24.6%
46.8%
48.9%
14.6%
15.8%
50.7%
48.2%
40.6%
36.1%
Roster
3.55
2.91
6'4.4"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Texas A&M-CC
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas A&M-CC's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.