CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceChaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO
Lehigh
Efficiency #273
2025-26: 18-17 · 14-7 conf
@
Saint Louis
Efficiency #20
2025-26: 29-6 · 16-4 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
66.9
win 6%
Projected
85.5
win 94%
No line posted yet.
Model: SLU −18.5 · total 152.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Louis 70.7, Lehigh 67.8 → 70.3 possessions
+4.2
Saint Louis offense vs Lehigh defense
+7.2
Lehigh offense vs Saint Louis defense
−7.3
Projected total
152.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Louis offense vs Lehigh defense
+7.2
Lehigh offense vs Saint Louis defense
+7.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Saint Louis by 18.5
18.5
Lehigh side ◂▸ Saint Louis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.3 against a projected 152.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Louis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Louis is the faster team (72.1, #22 of 365) and Lehigh the slower (66.5, #275). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.4
model
Projected team totals
66.9 / 85.5
Lehigh / Saint Louis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#221
Lehigh
70.7#21
Saint Louis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSaint Louis
Where Saint Louis scores: shooting
Saint Louis shoots an effective 59.7% (#2); Lehigh allows 50.6% (#133). Expect about 55.8%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLehigh
Where Lehigh struggles: the offensive glass
Lehigh rebounds 23.2% of its own misses (#349); Saint Louis lets opponents grab 27.2% of their own misses (#43). Expect about 23.8%, 6.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Saint Louis averages 72.1 possessions per 40, Lehigh 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Louis, Saint Louis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Lehigh at about 40.1% of its shots from three, Saint Louis about 39.0%.
ClashSaint Louis
Style clash: 3-point volume
Saint Louis takes 45.1% of its shots from three; Lehigh runs teams off the line (31.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashSaint Louis
Style clash: ball movement
Saint Louis assists on 60.4% of its made baskets; Lehigh breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Lehigh has the ball
OffenseSaint Louis allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #107
45.2% #3
-3.0 pt/100
17.7% #252
15.9% #224
+0.0 pt/100
23.2% #349
27.2% #43
-4.0 pt/100
31.8% #258
37.1% #242
-0.0 pt/100
72.6% #180
—
+0.0 pt/100
Lehigh net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.1 pts/100
Saint Louis has the ball
OffenseLehigh allowsvs D1 avg
59.7% #2
50.6% #133
+6.4 pt/100
17.2% #217
16.2% #213
+0.2 pt/100
30.7% #173
31.4% #226
+0.4 pt/100
33.7% #221
32.5% #115
-0.3 pt/100
74.1% #128
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Louis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersLehighoffense vsSaint Louisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Lehigh shoots
34.4
7.9
18.9
38.8
Saint Louis allows
38.4
7.1
12.5
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.6%#82 | 48.0%#2 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.7%#229 | 35.0%#57 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.8%#116 | 37.0%#132 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#56 | 30.3%#14 | 33.7% |
Saint Louisoffense vsLehighdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Louis shoots
46.6
4.8
3.8
44.8
Lehigh allows
44.6
5.6
18.5
31.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.9%#76 | 55.8%#82 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.2%#99 | 45.6%#318 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.8%#317 | 40.9%#274 | 38.0% |
| Three | 39.9%#2 | 32.9%#109 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersLehigh
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#320 of 365
Off reb %
23.2%
#349
Def reb %
68.6%
#226
Turnover %
17.7%
#252
Forced TO %
16.2%
#213
FT rate
31.8%
#258
FT allowed
32.5%
#115
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Saint Louis
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#173
Def reb %
72.8%
#43
Turnover %
17.2%
#217
Forced TO %
15.9%
#224
FT rate
33.7%
#221
FT allowed
37.1%
#242
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Saint Louis has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.4 (#196 of 365) to Lehigh’s −3.7 (#320).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Lehigh2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Joshua Ingram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 58.1% | 38.4% | 3.6 | 72.5% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Hank Alvey | F | So | 6'9" | 35-35 | 30.9 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 63.1% | 41.7% | 0.3 | 65.9% | 26.5% | |
| 25 | Peter Kramer | G | So | 6'5" | 35-14 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 53.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 68.4% | 12.5% | |
| 5 | Edouard Benoit | F | So | 6'8" | 24-23 | 28.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 31.3% | 4.0 | 82.5% | 24.6% | |
| 31 | Jalen Vazquez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-19 | 21.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 43.6% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 68.6% | 14.3% | |
| 0 | Andrew Urosevic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-1 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 51.8% | 33.1% | 5.2 | 77.8% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Caleb Thomas | G | Fr | 5'10" | 21-13 | 22.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 36.7% | 18.8% | 1.5 | 58.3% | 21.1% | |
| 15 | Alfredo Addesa | F | So | 6'10" | 33-0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42.5% | 28.1% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 21.2% | |
| 21 | Jake Pike | F | Jr | 6'8" | 15-0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 9.7% | |
| 32 | Henri Adiassa | C | Sr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 80.0% | 8.0% | |
| 44 | Tommy Conniff | C | Sr | 6'11" | 11-0 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.5% | |
| 11 | Brendan Reed | G | Sr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 17.6% | |
| 23 | Bube Momah | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Caesar Burrows | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Saint Louis2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quentin Jones | G | Jr | 6'5" | 35-33 | 26.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 52.3% | 36.2% | 2.7 | 80.0% | 20.8% | |
| 3 | Trey Green | G | So | 6'0" | 34-30 | 23.6 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 64.0% | 44.2% | 6.1 | 86.1% | 20.7% | |
| 9 | Ishan Sharma | F | So | 6'5" | 35-2 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 61.6% | 41.7% | 5.5 | 86.0% | 19.0% | |
| 4 | Amari McCottry | G | So | 6'6" | 34-31 | 22.9 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 55.1% | 29.0% | 1.8 | 58.2% | 28.7% | |
| 0 | Kellen Thames | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-2 | 17.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 65.8% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 62.8% | 28.3% | |
| 25 | Paul Otieno | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-4 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 77.5% | 17.2% | |
| 15 | Jax Kerr | F | Fr | 6'11" | 17-0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 18.5% | 1.6 | 63.6% | 28.8% | |
| 24 | Cam Hutson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 39.3% | 12.5% | 0.9 | 71.4% | 26.8% | |
| 5 | Jaden Schertz | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.5% | |
| 12 | Isaac Holmes | G | Jr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 41.7% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.7% | |
| 2 | Badara Diakite | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Dylan Warlick | F | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kalu Anya | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Luke Laczkowski | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Lehigh2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Joshua Ingram | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 58.1% | 38.4% | 3.6 | 72.5% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Hank Alvey | F | So | 6'9" | 35-35 | 30.9 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 63.1% | 41.7% | 0.3 | 65.9% | 26.5% | |
| 25 | Peter Kramer | G | So | 6'5" | 35-14 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 53.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 68.4% | 12.5% | |
| 5 | Edouard Benoit | F | So | 6'8" | 24-23 | 28.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 31.3% | 4.0 | 82.5% | 24.6% | |
| 31 | Jalen Vazquez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-19 | 21.9 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 43.6% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 68.6% | 14.3% | |
| 0 | Andrew Urosevic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-1 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 51.8% | 33.1% | 5.2 | 77.8% | 23.6% | |
| 10 | Caleb Thomas | G | Fr | 5'10" | 21-13 | 22.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 36.7% | 18.8% | 1.5 | 58.3% | 21.1% | |
| 15 | Alfredo Addesa | F | So | 6'10" | 33-0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42.5% | 28.1% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 21.2% | |
| 21 | Jake Pike | F | Jr | 6'8" | 15-0 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 9.7% | |
| 32 | Henri Adiassa | C | Sr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 80.0% | 8.0% | |
| 44 | Tommy Conniff | C | Sr | 6'11" | 11-0 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.5% | |
| 11 | Brendan Reed | G | Sr | 6'0" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 17.6% | |
| 23 | Bube Momah | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Caesar Burrows | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Lehigh
Against the spread
Season
19-14
Home
11-4
Road
6-9
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-15
Home
8-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +2.1
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | #16Prairie View | N | L 55–67 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 142.5 | U122 | 84.4 | 102.8 | 65.2 |
| Mar 11 | Boston U | H | W 74–60 | +2.0 | W+16.0 | 139.0 | U134 | 121.0 | 98.1 | 61.2 |
| Mar 8 | Colgate | H | W 76–69 | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 110.9 | 100.7 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Holy Cross | H | W 69–66 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 142.5 | U135 | 103.6 | 99.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 28 | Bucknell | H | W 89–79 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 139.5 | O168 | 131.1 | 116.3 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | American | A | W 78–73 | +7.0 | W+12.0 | 140.0 | O151 | 117.5 | 110.0 | 66.4 |
| Feb 22 | Boston U | H | W 70–67 | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 141.0 | U137 | 119.1 | 114.0 | 58.8 |
| Feb 18 | Navy | A | L 49–72 | +10.0 | L−13.0 | 139.5 | U121 | 76.0 | 111.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Lafayette | A | W 78–69 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 140.5 | O147 | 120.7 | 106.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | American | H | W 90–82 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 140.0 | O172 | 121.4 | 110.6 | 74.2 |
Saint Louis
Against the spread
Season
19-14-1
Home
13-5
Road
4-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-16-1
Home
10-8
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.5
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #1Michigan | N | L 72–95 | +12.0 | L−11.0 | 160.5 | O167 | 102.1 | 134.7 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #8Georgia | N | W 102–77 | +1.5 | W+26.5 | 167.5 | O179 | 127.8 | 96.5 | 79.8 |
| Mar 14 | Dayton | N | L 69–70 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 145.5 | U139 | 100.8 | 102.3 | 68.4 |
| Mar 13 | G Washington | N | W 88–81 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 162.5 | O169 | 118.2 | 108.8 | 74.4 |
| Mar 7 | George Mason | A | L 57–86 | −7.0 | L−36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 90.6 | 136.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 4 | Loyola Chicago | H | W 79–65 | −21.5 | L−7.5 | 155.0 | U144 | 132.9 | 109.4 | 59.4 |
| Feb 28 | Duquesne | H | W 91–76 | −13.5 | W+1.5 | 160.0 | O167 | 138.6 | 115.7 | 65.7 |
| Feb 24 | Dayton | A | L 62–77 | −3.5 | L−18.5 | 157.5 | U139 | 89.3 | 110.9 | 69.4 |
| Feb 20 | VCU | H | W 88–75 | −7.5 | W+5.5 | 164.5 | U163 | 114.1 | 97.3 | 77.1 |
| Feb 17 | Rhode Island | A | L 76–81 | −9.5 | L−14.5 | 152.0 | O157 | 101.9 | 108.6 | 74.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLehighSaint Louis
Efficiency
104.1
117.2
110.0
102.5
67.8
70.7
—
—
Shooting
52.9%
59.7%
52.2%
59.5%
36.1%
39.9%
72.6%
74.1%
31.8%
33.7%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
17.2%
16.2%
15.9%
23.2%
30.7%
31.4%
27.2%
12.2%
10.1%
8.3%
11.2%
Style
38.3%
45.1%
41.2%
44.4%
13.4%
18.7%
54.3%
60.4%
25.4%
39.3%
Roster
2.23
2.52
6'5.4"
6'5"
83.1%
66.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLehigh
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.0%
Lost
- Nasir Whitlock 35.0 mpg, 20.5 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- Caesar Burrows no D1 minutes last season
- Bube Momah no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Saint Louis
Returning minutes: 66.8%Returning production: 64.6%
Lost
- Robbie Avila 26.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dion Brown 23.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brady Dunlap 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
- Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Laczkowski no D1 minutes last season
- Kalu Anya no D1 minutes last season
- Badara Diakite no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.