CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFoster Pavilion, Waco, TX

N'Western St

Efficiency #299

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf

Baylor

Efficiency #55

2025-26: 17-17 · 6-13 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · 9:30 PM ET

67.1

win 10%

Projected

81.7

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: BAY −14.6 · total 148.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Baylor 68.6, N'Western St 66.6 → 66.9 possessions

−3.0

Baylor offense vs N'Western St defense

+7.2

N'Western St offense vs Baylor defense

−3.6

Projected total

148.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Baylor offense vs N'Western St defense

+7.2

N'Western St offense vs Baylor defense

+3.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Baylor by 14.6

14.6

N'Western St side ◂▸ Baylor side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.7 against +14.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Baylor.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Baylor is the faster team (69.3, #126 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.8

model

Projected team totals

67.1 / 81.7

N'Western St / Baylor

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#314

N'Western St

68.6#155

Baylor

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBaylor

Where Baylor scores: the offensive glass

Baylor rebounds 36.9% of its own misses (#18); N'Western St lets opponents grab 32.6% of their own misses (#286). Expect about 36.0%, 5.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashN'Western St

Style match: 3-point volume

N'Western St rarely shoots threes (33.9% of its shots); Baylor runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageN'Western St

Where N'Western St struggles: the offensive glass

N'Western St rebounds 26.1% of its own misses (#321); Baylor lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#219). Expect about 27.8%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

N'Western St has the ball

OffenseBaylor allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #301

52.4% #237

-1.4 pt/100

18.3% #288

15.9% #226

-0.4 pt/100

26.1% #321

31.3% #219

-1.6 pt/100

40.1% #58

30.1% #61

-0.1 pt/100

74.0% #135

—

+0.1 pt/100

N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Baylor has the ball

OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg

53.4% #84

53.0% #270

+3.1 pt/100

16.3% #154

16.9% #163

+0.3 pt/100

36.9% #18

32.6% #286

+3.4 pt/100

34.1% #202

36.3% #218

+0.0 pt/100

73.5% #155

—

+0.1 pt/100

Baylor net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western Stoffense vsBaylordefense

Share of shots by zone

N'Western St shoots

37.7

9.9

19.1

33.3

Baylor allows

26.3

16.6

22.4

34.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#323	65.9%#358	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.3%#168	47.6%#336	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#64	38.9%#199	38.0%
Three	33.2%#218	34.8%#240	33.7%

Bayloroffense vsN'Western Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Baylor shoots

28.4

13.1

18.9

39.6

N'Western St allows

38.8

8.4

14.8

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#55	60.4%#247	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.3%#47	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#29	41.4%#289	38.0%
Three	33.9%#179	35.5%#278	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western St

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365

Off reb %

26.1%

#321

Def reb %

67.4%

#286

Turnover %

18.3%

#288

Forced TO %

16.9%

#163

FT rate

40.1%

#58

FT allowed

36.3%

#218

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Baylor

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365

Off reb %

36.9%

#18

Def reb %

68.7%

#219

Turnover %

16.3%

#154

Forced TO %

15.9%

#226

FT rate

34.1%

#202

FT allowed

30.1%

#61

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Baylor has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#65 of 365) to N'Western St’s −1.9 (#266).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Baylor2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Tounde Yessoufou	G	Fr	6'5"	34-34	32.7	17.8	5.9	1.6	1.9	52.0%	29.3%	5.3	74.6%	31.8%
5	Obi Agbim	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.3	10.7	2.7	3.1	1.1	49.7%	35.6%	6.6	85.4%	19.7%
10	Isaac Williams IV	G	So	6'1"	34-14	25.0	10.4	2.2	3.3	1.6	61.5%	47.1%	1.5	68.4%	22.5%
44	Caden Powell	C	Sr	6'9"	34-20	24.4	6.9	6.3	1.3	1.1	67.2%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	14.6%
12	Michael Rataj	G	Sr	6'8"	34-19	23.1	7.2	4.6	1.7	1.4	45.2%	21.8%	1.6	70.7%	21.3%
0	Dan Skillings Jr.	G	Sr	6'6"	29-16	25.5	9.4	5.7	2.0	1.2	49.6%	29.7%	2.6	71.2%	22.6%
46	James Nnaji	C	Fr	7'0"	18-0	8.2	1.4	2.1	0.2	0.4	69.2%	—	0.0	57.1%	11.2%
2	Will Kuykendall	G	So	6'2"	9-0	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.1	0.6	61.5%	44.4%	1.0	100.0%	30.1%
1	JJ White	G	Sr	6'1"	4-0	6.5	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	12.5%
3	Drew Perry	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	2.7	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.2	42.9%	28.6%	0.8	66.7%	26.0%
13	James Goodis	G	Jr	6'0"	3-0	2.7	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	12.8%
7	Andre Iguodala II	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Juslin Bodo Bodo	C	Jr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Maikcol Perez	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Mayo Soyoye	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N'Western St

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

8-4

Road

9-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

4-8

Road

11-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −11.8

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	NichollsAdjEM #250	N	L 47–61	+2.0	L−12.0	139.0	U108	79.8	103.5	58.9
Mar 2	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 62–74	+9.0	L−3.0	139.0	U136	96.0	114.6	64.6
Feb 28	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 59–71	+6.0	L−6.0	134.0	U130	97.5	117.4	60.5
Feb 23	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 54–49	−2.5	W+2.5	138.0	U103	89.9	81.6	60.1
Feb 21	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 71–53	−2.5	W+15.5	133.5	U124	112.1	83.6	63.4
Feb 16	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 64–75	+14.0	W+3.0	137.5	O139	100.9	118.2	63.5
Feb 14	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 69–66	−1.0	W+2.0	131.0	O135	110.4	105.6	62.5
Feb 9	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 70–68	+7.5	W+9.5	136.5	O138	106.1	103.1	66.0
Feb 7	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 48–52	+2.0	L−2.0	141.5	U100	72.1	78.1	66.5
Feb 4	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	L 68–74	−3.0	L−9.0	143.0	U142	107.6	117.1	63.2

Baylor

Against the spread

Season

14-18-1

Home

6-9-1

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

11-5

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 69–82	−1.5	L−14.5	159.5	U151	98.5	117.1	70.0
Apr 1	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	N	W 67–48	−3.5	W+15.5	146.5	U115	112.7	80.7	59.5
Mar 10	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	L 79–83	−5.0	L−9.0	152.5	O162	111.6	117.3	70.8
Mar 7	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 101–75	−12.0	W+14.0	148.5	O176	159.9	118.7	63.2
Mar 4	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 64–77	+13.5	W+0.5	144.5	U141	98.2	118.2	65.2
Feb 28	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 87–86	+1.5	W+2.5	159.0	O173	131.3	129.8	66.2
Feb 24	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 80–87	+7.0	P0.0	155.5	O167	122.2	132.9	65.4
Feb 21	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 73–68	−8.5	L−3.5	158.0	U141	111.6	104.0	65.4
Feb 17	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 74–90	−3.5	L−19.5	159.0	O164	91.3	111.1	81.0
Feb 14	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 71–82	+7.0	L−4.0	161.5	U153	104.6	120.8	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N'Western StBaylor

Efficiency

104.1

116.4

111.3

107.6

66.6

68.6

—

Shooting

48.6%

53.4%

48.0%

55.2%

33.2%

33.9%

74.0%

73.5%

40.1%

34.1%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

16.3%

16.9%

15.9%

26.1%

36.9%

32.6%

31.3%

10.6%

9.7%

9.6%

8.8%

Style

33.9%

39.7%

40.8%

44.8%

12.4%

13.6%

50.7%

52.2%

36.8%

22.3%

Roster

3.12

3.01

6'4"

6'5.3"

—

83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N'Western St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Baylor

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.9%

Lost

Cameron Carr 33.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Maikcol Perez no D1 minutes last season
Mayo Soyoye no D1 minutes last season
Andre Iguodala II no D1 minutes last season
Juslin Bodo Bodo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.