CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUD Arena, Dayton, OH

NJIT

Efficiency #331

2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf

Dayton

Efficiency #62

2025-26: 25-12 · 14-7 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

62.3

win 8%

Projected

78.4

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: DAY −16.1 · total 140.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Dayton 67.8, NJIT 68.7 → 68.3 possessions

−0.1

Dayton offense vs NJIT defense

+2.4

NJIT offense vs Dayton defense

−9.8

Projected total

140.7

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Dayton offense vs NJIT defense

+2.4

NJIT offense vs Dayton defense

+9.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Dayton by 16.1

16.1

NJIT side ◂▸ Dayton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Dayton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NJIT is the faster team (67.9, #204 of 365) and Dayton the slower (67.6, #216). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

140.7

model

Projected team totals

62.3 / 78.4

NJIT / Dayton

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#140

NJIT

67.8#222

Dayton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNJIT

Where NJIT struggles: shooting

NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); Dayton allows 51.0% (#164). Expect about 48.5%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversNJIT

NJIT turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.6% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.

GlassNJIT

NJIT gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NJIT) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NJIT at about 40.9% of its shots from three, Dayton about 41.8%.

DefenseDayton

Dayton's ball-hawking

Dayton ranks #23 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.2% of NJIT's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

NJIT has the ball

OffenseDayton allowsvs D1 avg

46.7% #342

51.0% #164

-3.9 pt/100

17.1% #210

21.0% #11

-3.5 pt/100

26.2% #316

28.8% #94

-2.3 pt/100

33.2% #233

35.5% #194

-0.1 pt/100

70.5% #253

—

-0.2 pt/100

NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.9 pts/100

Dayton has the ball

OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #168

50.0% #99

-0.7 pt/100

16.9% #195

16.2% #210

+0.4 pt/100

26.9% #298

32.1% #264

-1.0 pt/100

46.2% #2

37.9% #258

+0.9 pt/100

75.4% #71

—

+0.3 pt/100

Dayton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NJIToffense vsDaytondefense

Share of shots by zone

NJIT shoots

33.9

6.7

19.6

39.7

Dayton allows

37.3

9.9

12.5

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#324	57.9%#143	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#152	34.8%#54	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#175	37.1%#134	38.0%
Three	30.4%#336	35.4%#270	33.7%

Daytonoffense vsNJITdefense

Share of shots by zone

Dayton shoots

42.8

6.3

9.8

41.1

NJIT allows

40.9

4.3

13.8

40.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.8%#122	57.8%#142	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.4%#360	43.7%#261	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#326	30.7%#7	38.0%
Three	33.9%#182	32.3%#79	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NJIT

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#316

Def reb %

67.9%

#264

Turnover %

17.1%

#210

Forced TO %

16.2%

#210

FT rate

33.2%

#233

FT allowed

37.9%

#258

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Dayton

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#19 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#298

Def reb %

71.2%

#94

Turnover %

16.9%

#195

Forced TO %

21.0%

#11

FT rate

46.2%

FT allowed

35.5%

#194

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.9

Foul shots drawn+2.9

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Dayton has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#19 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NJIT2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	David Bolden	G	Fr	6'0"	33-33	29.8	11.8	2.8	2.8	2.0	41.9%	31.8%	6.7	80.2%	28.6%
24	Ari Fulton	G	So	6'7"	33-32	28.3	10.9	6.2	1.2	1.5	47.1%	26.2%	3.2	78.9%	24.2%
3	Jordan Rogers	F	So	6'6"	33-33	26.6	5.8	5.2	2.2	1.5	54.7%	33.3%	1.8	66.7%	14.7%
0	Sebastian Robinson	G	Jr	6'3"	30-15	27.4	14.8	3.0	2.2	1.9	46.8%	24.0%	1.7	70.1%	35.7%
11	Melvyn Ebonkoli	F	Sr	6'8"	21-18	26.1	7.3	5.7	0.6	1.7	51.6%	—	0.0	52.4%	20.1%
25	John Kelly	F	So	6'8"	33-0	15.6	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.6	47.1%	34.2%	1.2	68.8%	17.6%
14	Quentin Duncan	G	So	6'4"	33-4	13.6	4.4	1.7	0.5	0.3	50.8%	37.6%	2.6	52.0%	19.9%
44	Rocco Awad	G	Fr	6'1"	33-1	12.8	3.1	1.3	0.3	0.6	39.2%	26.4%	2.6	76.9%	19.7%
32	Malachi Arrington	C	So	6'11"	29-15	14.2	3.9	3.7	0.0	0.7	59.7%	—	0.0	55.3%	16.4%
2	Jeremy Clayville	G	So	6'1"	16-14	19.4	6.8	1.5	1.5	1.3	42.7%	30.1%	5.2	100.0%	26.6%
33	Zack Scherler	F	Fr	6'11"	19-0	6.5	1.0	1.2	0.2	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	55.6%	10.8%
8	Jeffrey Akintolu	F	Jr	6'7"	19-0	5.6	0.7	0.9	0.0	0.2	30.0%	13.3%	0.8	50.0%	13.9%
7	Cameron Piggee	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	5.4	1.8	0.3	0.4	0.2	41.9%	32.0%	1.4	85.7%	21.9%
5	AJ Altobelli	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Stefan Jimenez-Vojnic	C	So	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Dayton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Javon Bennett	G	Sr	5'10"	37-37	34.5	15.8	2.2	2.9	1.4	49.0%	34.7%	7.0	89.8%	27.3%
7	Keonte Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	37-37	30.2	7.7	5.3	2.2	1.4	53.9%	31.7%	1.1	63.1%	16.1%
29	Amael L'Etang	F	So	7'1"	33-31	25.5	11.9	5.9	1.6	2.1	55.7%	36.1%	2.9	76.5%	27.6%
4	Jordan Derkack	G	Sr	6'5"	32-14	24.8	9.2	4.8	2.5	1.7	40.9%	27.6%	1.8	72.2%	24.8%
10	Bryce Heard	G	So	6'6"	36-6	18.4	6.6	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.9%	36.6%	2.0	79.1%	20.5%
3	Jaiun Simon	F	So	6'6"	36-16	18.3	5.6	3.3	1.2	0.8	53.7%	40.0%	1.0	80.5%	17.7%
24	Jacob Conner	F	Sr	6'10"	36-8	17.0	3.2	2.3	1.1	0.6	50.0%	29.7%	1.8	63.0%	12.8%
1	Malcolm Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	26-0	8.7	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.7	54.8%	33.3%	0.7	56.8%	29.2%
22	Damon Friery	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.6	1.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	44.4%	35.3%	1.1	50.0%	22.5%
50	Sean Pouedet	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	38.9%	25.0%	0.3	100.0%	12.9%
11	Evan Dickey	G	Jr	6'3"	4-0	2.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	14.6%
33	Makai Grant	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	37.5%	33.3%	0.5	—	33.9%
25	Will Maxwell	G	Jr	6'4"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.6%
8	Jaron McKie	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NJIT2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	David Bolden	G	Fr	6'0"	33-33	29.8	11.8	2.8	2.8	2.0	41.9%	31.8%	6.7	80.2%	28.6%
24	Ari Fulton	G	So	6'7"	33-32	28.3	10.9	6.2	1.2	1.5	47.1%	26.2%	3.2	78.9%	24.2%
3	Jordan Rogers	F	So	6'6"	33-33	26.6	5.8	5.2	2.2	1.5	54.7%	33.3%	1.8	66.7%	14.7%
0	Sebastian Robinson	G	Jr	6'3"	30-15	27.4	14.8	3.0	2.2	1.9	46.8%	24.0%	1.7	70.1%	35.7%
11	Melvyn Ebonkoli	F	Sr	6'8"	21-18	26.1	7.3	5.7	0.6	1.7	51.6%	—	0.0	52.4%	20.1%
25	John Kelly	F	So	6'8"	33-0	15.6	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.6	47.1%	34.2%	1.2	68.8%	17.6%
14	Quentin Duncan	G	So	6'4"	33-4	13.6	4.4	1.7	0.5	0.3	50.8%	37.6%	2.6	52.0%	19.9%
44	Rocco Awad	G	Fr	6'1"	33-1	12.8	3.1	1.3	0.3	0.6	39.2%	26.4%	2.6	76.9%	19.7%
32	Malachi Arrington	C	So	6'11"	29-15	14.2	3.9	3.7	0.0	0.7	59.7%	—	0.0	55.3%	16.4%
2	Jeremy Clayville	G	So	6'1"	16-14	19.4	6.8	1.5	1.5	1.3	42.7%	30.1%	5.2	100.0%	26.6%
33	Zack Scherler	F	Fr	6'11"	19-0	6.5	1.0	1.2	0.2	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	55.6%	10.8%
8	Jeffrey Akintolu	F	Jr	6'7"	19-0	5.6	0.7	0.9	0.0	0.2	30.0%	13.3%	0.8	50.0%	13.9%
7	Cameron Piggee	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	5.4	1.8	0.3	0.4	0.2	41.9%	32.0%	1.4	85.7%	21.9%
5	AJ Altobelli	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Stefan Jimenez-Vojnic	C	So	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NJIT

Against the spread

Season

18-14

Home

6-7

Road

12-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

6-7

Road

8-11

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −8.2

Under 2 straightOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 54–63	+11.5	W+2.5	135.0	U117	85.4	99.6	63.2
Mar 7	MaineAdjEM #335	H	W 60–58	−3.5	L−1.5	133.5	U118	92.5	89.5	64.8
Mar 3	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 52–91	+5.0	L−34.0	142.5	O143	74.2	129.9	70.1
Feb 28	BryantAdjEM #347	A	L 52–69	−1.5	L−18.5	138.5	U121	80.9	107.3	64.3
Feb 21	VermontAdjEM #199	H	L 64–70	+6.5	W+0.5	142.0	U134	100.8	110.2	63.5
Feb 19	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	L 63–81	−4.0	L−22.0	143.0	O144	105.7	136.0	59.6
Feb 14	MaineAdjEM #335	A	W 67–58	−2.0	W+7.0	137.0	U125	98.9	85.7	67.7
Feb 12	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 76–70	+2.5	W+8.5	143.5	O146	113.8	104.8	66.8
Feb 7	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	W 73–64	−9.5	L−0.5	140.5	U137	110.5	96.9	66.0
Feb 5	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 81–56	−1.0	W+24.0	149.0	U137	118.7	82.1	68.2

Dayton

Against the spread

Season

17-18-2

Home

8-10

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

5-3-2

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 2 pushesCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-24

Home

4-14

Road

6-7

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −11.4

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	L 55–61	−7.0	L−13.0	140.0	U116	87.6	97.2	62.8
Mar 21	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	W 80–61	−3.5	W+15.5	138.5	O141	125.8	95.9	63.6
Mar 18	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	W 80–66	−2.5	W+11.5	141.0	O146	133.9	110.4	59.8
Mar 15	VCUAdjEM #39	N	L 62–70	+2.5	L−5.5	138.5	U132	96.0	108.4	64.6
Mar 14	Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	W 70–69	+5.0	W+6.0	145.5	U139	102.3	100.8	68.4
Mar 13	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	N	W 68–63	−5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	103.3	95.7	65.8
Mar 6	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 62–68	−1.5	L−7.5	147.0	U130	102.2	112.1	60.6
Mar 3	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	W 65–60	−5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	105.1	97.0	61.8
Feb 27	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	W 68–66	+2.5	W+4.5	152.0	U134	101.7	98.7	66.9
Feb 24	#23Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 77–62	+3.5	W+18.5	157.5	U139	110.9	89.3	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NJITDayton

Efficiency

100.5

109.9

110.6

102.2

68.7

67.8

—

Shooting

46.7%

51.6%

47.5%

52.1%

30.4%

33.9%

70.5%

75.4%

33.2%

46.2%

Ball control & glass

17.1%

16.9%

16.2%

21.0%

26.2%

26.9%

32.1%

28.8%

9.6%

9.9%

9.0%

11.4%

Style

40.1%

41.4%

40.9%

41.6%

12.9%

14.1%

45.7%

59.1%

33.0%

27.4%

Roster

2.09

3.13

6'4.9"

6'5.6"

—

85.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NJIT

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Dayton

Returning minutes: 85.2%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

De'Shayne Montgomery 29.8 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Jaron McKie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.