CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCajundome, Lafayette, LA
Akron
Efficiency #48
2025-26: 29-6 · 20-1 conf
@
Louisiana
Efficiency #318
2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
78.1
win 78%
Projected
69.3
win 22%
No line posted yet.
Model: AKR −8.9 · total 147.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Louisiana 65.6, Akron 70.2 → 67.5 possessions
−1.8
Louisiana offense vs Akron defense
−5.9
Akron offense vs Louisiana defense
+6.9
Projected total
147.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Louisiana offense vs Akron defense
−5.9
Akron offense vs Louisiana defense
−6.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Akron by 8.9
8.9
Akron side ◂▸ Louisiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Louisiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Akron is the faster team (71.1, #47 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (64.1, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.4
model
Projected team totals
78.1 / 69.3
Akron / Louisiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#38
Akron
65.6#353
Louisiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageAkron
Where Akron scores: shooting
Akron shoots an effective 58.2% (#9); Louisiana allows 52.6% (#247). Expect about 55.9%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLouisiana
Where Louisiana struggles: shooting
Louisiana shoots an effective 47.1% (#334); Akron allows 51.2% (#173). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Louisiana averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Akron 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Akron) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Akron at about 41.6% of its shots from three, Louisiana about 42.6%.
GlassAkron
Akron owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Akron's offense.
ClashAkron
Style clash: 3-point volume
Akron takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Louisiana runs teams off the line (36.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Akron has the ball
OffenseLouisiana allowsvs D1 avg
58.2% #9
52.6% #247
+6.6 pt/100
15.5% #102
18.3% #85
-0.3 pt/100
33.4% #78
32.3% #272
+1.8 pt/100
29.2% #327
45.8% #352
+0.4 pt/100
75.4% #69
—
+0.3 pt/100
Akron net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.9 pts/100
Louisiana has the ball
OffenseAkron allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #334
51.2% #173
-3.5 pt/100
16.8% #185
18.3% #86
-1.2 pt/100
28.3% #251
29.9% #156
-1.0 pt/100
28.7% #334
30.4% #70
-0.7 pt/100
70.4% #261
—
-0.2 pt/100
Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Akronoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Akron shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.6%#4458.4%#16158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)53.8%#343.5%#25939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.8%#4132.4%#2038.0%
Three38.2%#1535.6%#28633.7%
Louisianaoffense vsAkrondefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
Akron allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.4%#35254.9%#5858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9236.3%#9639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.6%#19732.7%#2538.0%
Three33.6%#18935.5%#28433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Akron
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#55 of 365
Off reb %
33.4%
#78
Def reb %
70.1%
#156
Turnover %
15.5%
#102
Forced TO %
18.3%
#86
FT rate
29.2%
#327
FT allowed
30.4%
#70
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Louisiana
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#251
Def reb %
67.7%
#272
Turnover %
16.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.3%
#85
FT rate
28.7%
#334
FT allowed
45.8%
#352
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.7

Akron has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#55 of 365) to Louisiana’s −4.4 (#338).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Akron2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Tahj Staveskieat Incarnate WordGSr6'1"31-3035.317.33.94.12.752.0%37.3%6.279.8%31.1%
12Evan MahaffeyFSr6'6"35-3528.510.25.63.41.360.5%30.4%1.357.6%19.0%
10Max Burtonat W MichiganFSr6'10"30-3024.65.95.21.61.447.9%0.0%0.169.1%16.3%
8Ty Penceat Illinois StGSr6'6"36-2323.59.44.41.60.959.2%36.0%2.169.9%21.9%
4Buddy Hammer Jr.at North TexasFSr6'7"29-014.24.12.80.40.651.5%31.6%0.777.3%16.9%
21Zach HalliganFJr6'5"33-2311.92.72.30.70.351.5%25.7%1.180.0%12.5%
23Marvin Musiime-KamaliFJr6'6"35-08.82.02.00.50.370.0%—0.065.2%11.1%
22Colin Whiteat Ohio StateFJr6'6"29-18.80.91.00.40.242.9%11.1%0.620.0%8.5%
5Chabi BarreFSr6'10"18-06.43.12.00.10.676.2%—0.077.4%21.9%
9Cody HeadGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Josh HendersonGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Tai PerkinsGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
19Devan ChristionFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Exavier WilsonGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15RJ JonesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Max Burton (from W Michigan), Buddy Hammer Jr. (from North Texas), Ty Pence (from Illinois St), Tahj Staveskie (from Incarnate Word), Colin White (from Ohio State)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
AkronLouisiana
Efficiency
116.2
101.8
106.5
110.9
70.2
65.6
—
—
Shooting
58.2%
47.1%
58.8%
44.8%
38.2%
33.6%
75.4%
70.4%
29.2%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
16.8%
18.3%
18.3%
33.4%
28.3%
29.9%
32.3%
9.0%
7.8%
8.4%
8.0%
Style
44.8%
40.5%
42.0%
34.8%
15.6%
10.5%
57.1%
45.9%
36.9%
33.1%
Roster
3.81
2.41
6'5.6"
6'5.1"
25.9%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Akron
Returning minutes: 25.9%Returning production: 25.3%
Lost
  • Tavari Johnson 31.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Shammah Scott 26.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amani Lyles 26.4 mpg, 14.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Eric Mahaffey 21.3 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sharron Young 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Bowen Hardman 18.4 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tahj Staveskie from Incarnate Word · 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
  • Max Burton from W Michigan · 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Pence from Illinois St · 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Buddy Hammer Jr. from North Texas · 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Colin White from Ohio State · 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
  • Josh Henderson no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.