CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
West Georgia
Efficiency #304
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-11 conf
@
DePaul
Efficiency #113
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-13 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
66.2
win 17%
Projected
77.3
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: DEP −11.1 · total 143.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: DePaul 67.7, West Georgia 69.4 → 68.8 possessions
+1.1
DePaul offense vs West Georgia defense
+0.7
West Georgia offense vs DePaul defense
−6.5
Projected total
143.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
DePaul offense vs West Georgia defense
+0.7
West Georgia offense vs DePaul defense
+6.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
DePaul by 11.1
11.1
West Georgia side ◂▸ DePaul side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.2 against +11.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help DePaul.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, West Georgia is the faster team (70.2, #89 of 365) and DePaul the slower (67.7, #213). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.5
model
Projected team totals
66.2 / 77.3
West Georgia / DePaul
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#86
West Georgia
67.7#236
DePaul
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageWest Georgia
Where West Georgia struggles: shooting
West Georgia shoots an effective 49.6% (#261); DePaul allows 49.3% (#77). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWest Georgia
Style match: 3-point volume
West Georgia rarely shoots threes (33.0% of its shots); DePaul runs teams off the line (33.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.7% — both habits push the same way.
ClashWest Georgia
Style clash: ball movement
West Georgia creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); DePaul allows assists on 57.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
West Georgia has the ball
OffenseDePaul allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #261
49.3% #77
-2.8 pt/100
15.9% #128
18.6% #67
-0.8 pt/100
31.5% #142
31.1% #205
+0.7 pt/100
29.2% #329
37.8% #257
-0.1 pt/100
70.4% #259
—
-0.2 pt/100
West Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100
DePaul has the ball
OffenseWest Georgia allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #243
53.4% #281
+0.4 pt/100
17.8% #256
14.7% #310
+0.9 pt/100
30.0% #197
29.0% #102
-0.6 pt/100
35.3% #169
36.9% #234
+0.2 pt/100
69.2% #295
—
-0.3 pt/100
DePaul net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWest Georgiaoffense vsDePauldefense
Share of shots by zone
West Georgia shoots
35.5
9.9
21.6
32.9
DePaul allows
39.4
6.5
21.2
33.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.3%#261 | 53.6%#34 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.9%#9 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.3%#212 | 36.2%#117 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#222 | 35.4%#274 | 33.7% |
DePauloffense vsWest Georgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
DePaul shoots
38.2
5.5
17.5
38.8
West Georgia allows
46.0
6.7
10.1
37.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.4%#287 | 60.8%#262 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.9%#66 | 44.6%#285 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#255 | 39.6%#228 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#253 | 33.1%#128 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWest Georgia
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#142
Def reb %
71.0%
#102
Turnover %
15.9%
#128
Forced TO %
14.7%
#310
FT rate
29.2%
#329
FT allowed
36.9%
#234
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.4
DePaul
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#188 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#197
Def reb %
68.9%
#205
Turnover %
17.8%
#256
Forced TO %
18.6%
#67
FT rate
35.3%
#169
FT allowed
37.8%
#257
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
DePaul has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#188 of 365) to West Georgia’s −1.8 (#264).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
West Georgia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelton Williams-Dryden | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 35.2 | 20.7 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 23.6% | 2.3 | 72.3% | 33.4% | |
| 11 | Kolten Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 33.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 51.4% | 35.0% | 1.9 | 61.5% | 15.4% | |
| 10 | Josh Smith | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-6 | 27.1 | 16.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 34.8% | 5.7 | 73.7% | 36.3% | |
| 23 | Malcolm Noel | G | Sr | 5'11" | 28-18 | 23.7 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 48.0% | 31.1% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Kenneth Chime | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-28 | 20.3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 14.5% | |
| 5 | JaVar Daniel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 31-4 | 19.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 54.5% | 50.0% | 0.6 | 70.0% | 21.2% | |
| 1 | Brady Hardewig | G | So | 6'2" | 31-26 | 17.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 54.8% | 36.7% | 2.9 | 83.3% | 13.3% | |
| 6 | Matija Zuzic | G | Sr | 6'6" | 23-4 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 38.6% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 85.7% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Chas Lewless | G | Fr | 6'2" | 10-10 | 28.3 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 47.3% | 32.8% | 6.4 | 88.5% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Xavier Shegog | F | Fr | 6'6" | 31-0 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 15.3% | |
| 12 | Eric Baldassarre | G | Fr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0% | 53.3% | 1.4 | — | 17.0% | |
| 30 | Cameron Merritt | G | So | 5'11" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.1% | |
| 14 | Nate Jones | G | Sr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 24.8% | |
| 20 | Max Young | G | Fr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 13.5% | |
| 25 | Maddox Fowles | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Micah Smith | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
DePaul2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Layden Blocker | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-29 | 29.1 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 41.7% | 31.8% | 3.4 | 82.8% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | CJ Gunn | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-23 | 27.7 | 13.1 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 47.3% | 32.7% | 5.3 | 72.5% | 32.1% | |
| 5 | RJ Smith | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-23 | 27.7 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 46.1% | 30.8% | 3.8 | 75.0% | 16.7% | |
| 35 | NJ Benson | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.9 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.5% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Brandon Maclin | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-16 | 27.6 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 48.5% | 30.6% | 2.5 | 69.5% | 25.2% | |
| 22 | Kruz McClure | G | Fr | 6'6" | 28-4 | 18.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 41.6% | 29.9% | 2.8 | 74.1% | 20.7% | |
| 1 | Kaleb Banks | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-11 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.0% | 35.5% | 2.0 | 74.1% | 19.5% | |
| 21 | Theo Pierre-Justin | F | So | 6'10" | 30-22 | 15.5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 54.5% | 39.7% | 2.1 | 61.1% | 15.7% | |
| 15 | Fabian Flores | C | Fr | 7'2" | 28-1 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 68.1% | — | 0.0 | 64.0% | 13.8% | |
| 10 | Ilija Milijasevic | G | Jr | 6'2" | 15-0 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 35.7% | 1.9 | 75.0% | 16.4% | |
| 32 | Jeremy Lorenz | F | Jr | 6'8" | 9-0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 15.4% | |
| 14 | Khaman Maker | C | So | 7'1" | 12-0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 16.1% | |
| 3 | Nate Kasher | G | Fr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 18.7% | |
| 52 | Amsal Delalic | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Isaiah Medina | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Jonas Johnson | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
West Georgia2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelton Williams-Dryden | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 35.2 | 20.7 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 51.7% | 23.6% | 2.3 | 72.3% | 33.4% | |
| 11 | Kolten Griffin | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 33.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 51.4% | 35.0% | 1.9 | 61.5% | 15.4% | |
| 10 | Josh Smith | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-6 | 27.1 | 16.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 34.8% | 5.7 | 73.7% | 36.3% | |
| 23 | Malcolm Noel | G | Sr | 5'11" | 28-18 | 23.7 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 48.0% | 31.1% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Kenneth Chime | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-28 | 20.3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 14.5% | |
| 5 | JaVar Daniel | F | Jr | 6'10" | 31-4 | 19.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 54.5% | 50.0% | 0.6 | 70.0% | 21.2% | |
| 1 | Brady Hardewig | G | So | 6'2" | 31-26 | 17.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 54.8% | 36.7% | 2.9 | 83.3% | 13.3% | |
| 6 | Matija Zuzic | G | Sr | 6'6" | 23-4 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 38.6% | 30.2% | 2.7 | 85.7% | 20.1% | |
| 2 | Chas Lewless | G | Fr | 6'2" | 10-10 | 28.3 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 47.3% | 32.8% | 6.4 | 88.5% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Xavier Shegog | F | Fr | 6'6" | 31-0 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 15.3% | |
| 12 | Eric Baldassarre | G | Fr | 6'4" | 11-0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0% | 53.3% | 1.4 | — | 17.0% | |
| 30 | Cameron Merritt | G | So | 5'11" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.1% | |
| 14 | Nate Jones | G | Sr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 24.8% | |
| 20 | Max Young | G | Fr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 13.5% | |
| 25 | Maddox Fowles | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Micah Smith | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26West Georgia
Against the spread
Season
19-10-1
Home
9-4
Road
9-6
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +3.6
Covered 5 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
7-6
Road
8-7
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.6
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Queens | N | L 63–71 | +8.0 | P0.0 | 165.5 | U134 | 86.5 | 97.5 | 72.8 |
| Mar 4 | North Florida | N | W 93–85 | −4.0 | W+4.0 | 159.0 | O178 | 123.7 | 113.1 | 75.2 |
| Feb 28 | North Alabama | H | W 75–63 | −5.0 | W+7.0 | 146.5 | U138 | 109.4 | 91.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Lipscomb | H | W 84–78 | +5.5 | W+11.5 | 153.0 | O162 | 119.1 | 110.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 21 | Queens | A | L 84–91 | +11.0 | W+4.0 | 162.5 | O175 | 116.6 | 126.3 | 72.1 |
| Feb 18 | E Kentucky | A | L 80–81 OT | +6.5 | W+5.5 | 154.0 | O161 | 100.4 | 101.6 | 79.7 |
| Feb 14 | C Arkansas | A | L 62–79 | +11.0 | L−6.0 | 152.0 | U141 | 90.0 | 114.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 11 | North Alabama | A | W 82–73 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 145.5 | O155 | 126.9 | 113.0 | 64.6 |
| Feb 7 | Jacksonville | H | W 87–73 | +1.0 | W+15.0 | 138.0 | O160 | 128.8 | 108.1 | 67.5 |
| Feb 5 | North Florida | H | L 73–81 | −6.5 | L−14.5 | 166.0 | U154 | 98.2 | 109.0 | 74.3 |
DePaul
Against the spread
Season
18-13-1
Home
9-9
Road
8-2-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −2.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
11-20-1
Home
7-10-1
Road
3-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Georgetown | N | L 56–63 | −5.0 | L−12.0 | 130.0 | U119 | 89.0 | 100.2 | 62.9 |
| Mar 7 | Butler | H | L 71–81 | −4.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 96.8 | 110.4 | 73.4 |
| Mar 4 | Villanova | H | L 57–76 | +2.0 | L−17.0 | 136.5 | U133 | 81.1 | 108.2 | 70.3 |
| Mar 1 | Marquette | A | W 62–51 | +4.5 | W+15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 98.0 | 80.6 | 63.2 |
| Feb 25 | Creighton | A | W 72–71 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 142.5 | O143 | 110.8 | 109.3 | 65.0 |
| Feb 21 | Providence | H | L 68–71 | −3.0 | L−6.0 | 152.5 | U139 | 101.2 | 105.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 18 | Seton Hall | A | W 69–57 | +7.0 | W+19.0 | 129.0 | U126 | 106.6 | 88.0 | 64.7 |
| Feb 11 | Creighton | H | W 72–71 | +1.0 | W+2.0 | 141.0 | O143 | 116.4 | 114.8 | 61.9 |
| Feb 7 | Providence | A | L 72–90 | +5.0 | L−13.0 | 153.5 | O162 | 100.6 | 125.8 | 71.5 |
| Feb 3 | #22St John's | H | L 56–68 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 145.0 | U124 | 85.3 | 103.6 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWest GeorgiaDePaul
Efficiency
104.0
106.3
111.6
103.5
69.4
67.7
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
49.8%
49.6%
50.5%
33.1%
32.5%
70.4%
69.2%
29.2%
35.3%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
17.8%
14.7%
18.6%
31.5%
30.0%
29.0%
31.1%
9.5%
10.8%
5.6%
10.7%
Style
33.0%
39.0%
46.3%
42.9%
13.4%
13.1%
44.3%
60.9%
32.3%
35.0%
Roster
3.03
3.13
6'5"
6'5.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWest Georgia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted West Georgia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
DePaul
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.