CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Merrimack.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 62.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, App State is the faster team (64.1, #355 of 365) and Merrimack the slower (63.7, #359). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.6%#135 | 51.4%#11 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.5%#280 | 42.9%#247 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#254 | 38.7%#188 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.4%#335 | 30.3%#12 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.4%#332 | 52.4%#19 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.5%#208 | 34.2%#46 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#321 | 38.4%#172 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.7%#243 | 32.2%#71 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersApp State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#84 of 365) to Merrimack’s −0.6 (#206).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kasen Jennings | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 46.7% | 32.2% | 5.6 | 76.9% | 31.2% | |
| 2 | Alonzo Dodd | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 31.4 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 3.9 | 70.4% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | Jalen Tot | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-16 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 48.9% | 33.6% | 7.8 | 69.8% | 25.6% | |
| 44 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | So | 6'9" | 32-25 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 70.7% | 19.6% | |
| 4 | Eren Banks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-16 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 4.1 | 50.0% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Chad Moodie | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-7 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 41.5% | 14.0% | |
| 5 | Jason Clarke Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 23-0 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 42.8% | 17.2% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Andrin Njock | F | Fr | 6'6" | 21-2 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 57.0% | 17.6% | 0.8 | 76.7% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | Jacari Brim | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 52.2% | 35.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 11.7% | |
| 14 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 24.3% | |
| 33 | Grant Clayton | F | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 32 | Luke Ledford | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.8% | |
| 0 | KJ Vasser | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Ted Neal | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Tre McKinnon | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tye Dorset | G | Jr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 36.3 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 49.3% | 32.2% | 5.4 | 77.3% | 21.0% | |
| 20 | Todd Brogna | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-34 | 29.2 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 51.6% | 35.1% | 3.9 | 70.8% | 15.5% | |
| 2 | Denver Anglinat Iona | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-29 | 28.1 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 44.0% | 29.8% | 6.1 | 79.5% | 23.0% | |
| 5 | Elijah Wilbornat James Madison | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-0 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 63.0% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 19.2% | |
| 0 | Dylan Veillette | F | So | 6'7" | 33-0 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 47.1% | 9.1% | 0.3 | 68.2% | 16.4% | |
| 7 | Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbanoat Fresno St | G | So | 6'4" | 13-2 | 9.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 41.4% | 27.3% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 16.3% | |
| 33 | AJ Lesburt Jr.at Brown | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | David Munro | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jacob Moore | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Quinn Kwasniak | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Amare Guerra | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Ayden Johnson | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Jeremiah Anderson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | JP Skoric | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Rocco Westfield | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kasen Jennings | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 46.7% | 32.2% | 5.6 | 76.9% | 31.2% | |
| 2 | Alonzo Dodd | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 31.4 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 3.9 | 70.4% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | Jalen Tot | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-16 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 48.9% | 33.6% | 7.8 | 69.8% | 25.6% | |
| 44 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | So | 6'9" | 32-25 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 70.7% | 19.6% | |
| 4 | Eren Banks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-16 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 4.1 | 50.0% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Chad Moodie | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-7 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 41.5% | 14.0% | |
| 5 | Jason Clarke Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 23-0 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 42.8% | 17.2% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Andrin Njock | F | Fr | 6'6" | 21-2 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 57.0% | 17.6% | 0.8 | 76.7% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | Jacari Brim | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 52.2% | 35.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 11.7% | |
| 14 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 24.3% | |
| 33 | Grant Clayton | F | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 32 | Luke Ledford | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.8% | |
| 0 | KJ Vasser | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Ted Neal | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Tre McKinnon | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Southern Miss | N | L 73–86 | −5.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | O159 | 106.5 | 125.4 | 68.6 |
| Feb 27 | Texas St | A | L 57–60 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 93.8 | 98.7 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | GA Southern | H | W 89–74 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | O163 | 125.2 | 104.1 | 71.1 |
| Feb 19 | Marshall | H | L 93–94 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | O187 | 139.9 | 141.4 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | James Madison | A | L 58–69 | −1.5 | L−12.5 | 135.0 | U127 | 94.7 | 112.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 11 | GA Southern | A | W 81–65 | −1.5 | W+14.5 | 144.0 | O146 | 122.2 | 98.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | E Michigan | H | W 65–60 | −7.5 | L−2.5 | 131.0 | U125 | 100.7 | 92.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 4 | South Alabama | H | W 65–57 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 132.0 | U122 | 111.4 | 97.7 | 58.4 |
| Jan 31 | Troy | A | W 66–44 | +8.0 | W+30.0 | 137.5 | U110 | 112.1 | 74.8 | 58.8 |
| Jan 29 | Southern Miss | A | W 70–63 | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U133 | 105.2 | 94.6 | 66.6 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Siena | N | L 54–64 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 128.5 | U118 | 84.9 | 100.7 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Marist | N | W 58–57 | −3.0 | L−2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 90.7 | 89.2 | 63.9 |
| Mar 6 | Sacred Heart | N | W 70–48 | −7.0 | W+15.0 | 143.0 | U118 | 114.6 | 78.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 1 | Niagara | A | W 73–66 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 127.0 | O139 | 120.5 | 108.9 | 60.6 |
| Feb 27 | Canisius | A | L 62–67 | −9.0 | L−14.0 | 130.0 | U129 | 102.1 | 110.3 | 60.7 |
| Feb 22 | Iona | H | W 88–86 2OT | −6.5 | L−4.5 | 137.0 | O174 | 119.0 | 116.3 | 73.9 |
| Feb 20 | Siena | H | W 79–72 OT | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 133.0 | O151 | 124.7 | 113.6 | 63.4 |
| Feb 15 | Quinnipiac | A | W 56–49 | +3.5 | W+10.5 | 142.0 | U105 | 85.8 | 75.1 | 65.3 |
| Feb 12 | Marist | H | W 81–56 | −2.5 | W+22.5 | 129.5 | O137 | 122.2 | 84.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Rider | A | W 73–47 | −8.5 | W+17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 127.1 | 81.8 | 57.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Luke Wilson 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Tre McKinnon no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Vasser no D1 minutes last season
- Ted Neal no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Ernest Shelton 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Kevair Kennedy 36.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Andrés Marrero 27.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- KC Ugwuakazi 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaylen Stinson 3.8 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aliou Cisse 2.7 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denver Anglin from Iona · 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Elijah Wilborn from James Madison · 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano from Fresno St · 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Rocco Westfield no D1 minutes last season
- JP Skoric no D1 minutes last season
- Jacob Moore no D1 minutes last season
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.