Montana State Bobcats vs Colorado State Rams basketball final score
Mon, Nov 2 · 10:00 PM ET · Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Non-conferenceMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Montana St
2025-26: 18-14 · 12-7 conf
Efficiency #129
@
Colorado St
2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf
Efficiency #89
Final
7484
Final score
Projected 67.3 – 78.2
MTST win 17%CSU win 83%
MarketClose
Spread
CSU −11.5
open CSU −11.0
Total
148.0
open 145.5
Our line
CSU −10.9
as of Mon, Nov 2 · 9:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Colorado Strated 6.7 above average
+6.7
Montana Strated 0.7 below average
+0.7
Home court
+3.5
Our line
CSU −10.9
◂ Montana St sideColorado St side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Colorado St. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 64.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Montana St is the faster team (67.4, #229 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
64.5
per team, 40 min
Market total
148.0
Market close · open 145.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#265
Montana St
65.5#358
Colorado St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
CSU −10.9
Four factors 0.6Not in these stats 10.3
From the four factors
Colorado St has the ball+3.0
Montana St has the ball+2.4
Colorado St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.5% #12 · MTST allows 51.7% #193+3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.0% #198 · MTST allows 28.2% #75−0.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.4% #69 · MTST allows 29.6% #52 · FT 77.0% #33+0.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 18.5% #296 · MTST forces 15.7% #238 · ~11 turnovers−0.2
Montana St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.6% #80 · CSU allows 52.9% #263+2.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.7% #53 · CSU forces 15.5% #253 · ~10 turnovers+1.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.0% #292 · CSU allows 29.3% #123−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 30.2% #303 · CSU allows 34.2% #155 · FT 74.0% #132−0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMontana Stoffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Montana St shoots
31.3
7.0
17.2
44.4
Colorado St allows
34.8
7.2
15.5
42.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#134 | 59.3%#203 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#137 | 48.7%#347 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.3%#12 | 40.6%#263 | 38.1% |
| Three | 36.1%#52 | 34.2%#196 | 33.7% |
Colorado Stoffense vsMontana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
32.9
6.7
10.8
49.6
Montana St allows
47.2
5.1
13.8
33.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.1%#15 | 54.6%#54 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.0%#331 | 49.4%#352 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.5%#45 | 41.2%#279 | 38.1% |
| Three | 38.6%#9 | 34.3%#198 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMontana St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#154 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#292
Def reb %
71.8%
#75
Turnover %
14.7%
#53
Forced TO %
15.7%
#238
FT rate
30.2%
#303
FT allowed
29.6%
#52
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Colorado St
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#198
Def reb %
70.7%
#123
Turnover %
18.5%
#296
Forced TO %
15.5%
#253
FT rate
39.4%
#69
FT allowed
34.2%
#155
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Montana St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#154 of 365) to Colorado St’s −0.3 (#190).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Montana St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 52.4% | 30.8% | 6.5 | 75.0% | 27.7% | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 28.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 71.4% | 60.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 19.5% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 17.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 76.5% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 72.7% | 25.2% | |
| 44 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 25.0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 70.0% | 28.6% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 57.1% | 28.6% | 3.5 | — | 17.2% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 80.0% | 33.6% | |
| 24 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-1 | 31.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 70.0% | 50.0% | 8.0 | — | 21.5% | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 14.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 7.9% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 87.5% | 100.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.1% | |
| 21 | F | So | 7'0" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.6% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameMontana St
Against the spread
Season
16-12-1
Home
7-4
Road
9-7-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-13
Home
6-5
Road
9-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.1
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Idaho | N | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 143.0 | O152 | 109.8 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
| Mar 2 | N Arizona | A | W 76–65 | −6.0 | W+5.0 | 143.5 | U141 | 124.6 | 106.6 | 61.0 |
| Feb 28 | Sacramento St | H | W 82–61 | −7.0 | W+14.0 | 158.5 | U143 | 123.5 | 91.9 | 66.4 |
| Feb 26 | Portland St | H | W 84–69 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 140.5 | O153 | 119.3 | 98.0 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | Idaho St | A | L 76–91 | −2.5 | L−17.5 | 144.5 | O167 | 104.9 | 125.6 | 72.5 |
| Feb 19 | Weber St | A | L 79–82 OT | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 148.0 | O161 | 108.5 | 112.7 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | Montana | A | W 82–71 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 146.0 | O153 | 124.2 | 107.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 7 | E Washington | H | L 71–72 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 109.5 | 111.0 | 64.9 |
| Feb 5 | Idaho | H | W 73–66 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 147.0 | U139 | 100.3 | 90.7 | 72.8 |
| Jan 31 | Portland St | A | L 54–63 | +4.0 | L−5.0 | 139.0 | U117 | 87.9 | 102.5 | 61.4 |
Colorado St
Against the spread
Season
18-15
Home
9-8
Road
6-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.6
Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-15-1
Home
9-7-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.1
Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 64–69 | −6.0 | L−11.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 95.5 | 103.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | San Diego St | N | L 62–71 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 89.1 | 102.1 | 69.6 |
| Mar 11 | Fresno St | N | W 67–63 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 106.4 | 100.1 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Boise St | H | L 67–78 | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 144.0 | O145 | 109.4 | 127.3 | 61.3 |
| Mar 4 | New Mexico | A | W 82–74 | +8.0 | W+16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 112.9 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San José St | A | W 85–73 | −8.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O158 | 133.6 | 114.7 | 63.6 |
| Feb 24 | Fresno St | H | W 74–70 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 111.0 | 105.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | San Diego St | H | W 83–74 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.0 | O157 | 122.8 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
| Feb 18 | UNLV | A | W 91–86 | +2.5 | W+7.5 | 148.0 | O177 | 139.2 | 131.5 | 65.4 |
| Feb 14 | Wyoming | H | W 79–68 | −3.5 | W+7.5 | 138.5 | O147 | 128.4 | 110.5 | 61.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMontana StColorado St
Efficiency
109.4
113.9
107.2
109.3
67.4
65.5
Shooting
53.6%
57.5%
53.1%
57.1%
36.1%
38.6%
74.0%
77.0%
30.2%
39.4%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
18.5%
15.7%
15.5%
27.0%
30.0%
28.2%
29.3%
7.9%
10.5%
7.5%
9.0%
Style
44.7%
49.1%
37.6%
35.6%
12.1%
11.1%
39.9%
62.9%
29.5%
30.9%
Roster
3.69
3.31
6'4.9"
6'5.6"
66.9%
57.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMontana St
Returning minutes: 66.9%Returning production: 67.7%
Lost
- Patrick McMahon 26.5 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Hodges 23.3 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davian Brown 16.4 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Grayson Gaddis 0.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Utah
Added
- Darnez Slater from Colorado St · 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
- London Praytor from Toledo · 2.1 mpg, 1.1 ppg last season
- James Steward no D1 minutes last season
- Hale Hansen no D1 minutes last season
- Isaiah Crane no D1 minutes last season
- CJ Purdie no D1 minutes last season
Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Colorado St
Returning minutes: 57.9%Returning production: 59.7%
Lost
- Jevin Muniz 30.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Rechsteiner 27.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
- Augustinas Kiudulas 14.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to W Michigan
- Nikola Djapa 5.2 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Wright St
- Darnez Slater 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg · transferred to Montana St
- Jon Mekonnen 1.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to S Dakota St
Added
- Justin Menard from Marist · 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg last season
- Docker Tedeschi no D1 minutes last season
- Eric Fiedler no D1 minutes last season
- River Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
- Amondo Miller Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Jaxon Clark no D1 minutes last season
Returns 58% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -10.5-118 | 145.5→146.5o-115 u-105 | -675 | +490 |
| FanDuel | -10.5-110 | 147.5o-110 u-110 | -610 | +440 |
| BetMGM | -11.5→-10.5-115 | 145.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -650 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -11.5→-10.5-120 | 145.5→147.5o-108 u-115 | -670 | +450 |
| Caesars | -10→-10.5-110 | 146.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -650 | +460 |
| Fanatics | -11.5→-11-110 | 145.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -650 | +460 |
| BetOnline | -12→-11-110 | 147.5o-105 u-115 | -625 | +461 |
| Bovada | -12.5→-11-115 | 144.5→148o-110 u-110 | -700 | +475 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5+100 | 145.5→147.5o-110 u-110 | -800 | +500 |
| Hard Rock | -11.5→-10.5-120 | 145.5→147.5o-105 u-115 | -650 | +450 |
| Kalshi | -10.5-104 | 147.5o-104 u-104 | -567 | +525 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -567 | +525 |
| Novig | -10.5→— | 145.5→— | -545 | +525 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.