CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVHall of Fame Series - Las Vegas
Gonzaga
Efficiency #8
2025-26: 31-4 · 18-2 conf
vs
Purdue
Efficiency #9
2025-26: 30-9 · 17-7 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · 7:30 PM ET
75.2
win 51%
Projected
74.9
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: GONZ −0.3 · total 150.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Purdue 66.3, Gonzaga 69.2 → 67.2 possessions
−2.4
Purdue offense vs Gonzaga defense
+2.0
Gonzaga offense vs Purdue defense
+2.3
Projected total
150.1
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Purdue offense vs Gonzaga defense
+2.0
Gonzaga offense vs Purdue defense
−2.3
Gonzaga by 0.3
0.3
Gonzaga side ◂▸ Purdue side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Gonzaga is the faster team (70.2, #88 of 365) and Purdue the slower (65.2, #324). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.1
model
Projected team totals
75.2 / 74.9
Gonzaga / Purdue
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#103
Gonzaga
66.3#329
Purdue
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageGonzaga
Where Gonzaga scores: shooting
Gonzaga shoots an effective 55.6% (#25); Purdue allows 52.4% (#232). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversGonzaga
Gonzaga protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.1% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for Gonzaga's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Purdue, Gonzaga's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Gonzaga at about 35.3% of its shots from three, Purdue about 42.2%.
ClashGonzaga
Style match: ball movement
Gonzaga assists on 57.5% of its made baskets; Purdue allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 58.8% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantagePurdue
Where Purdue scores: shooting
Purdue shoots an effective 57.6% (#10); Gonzaga allows 46.3% (#15). Expect about 52.4%, 1.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashGonzaga
Style clash: 3-point volume
Gonzaga rarely shoots threes (30.8% of its shots); Purdue lets opponents take 43.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Gonzaga has the ball
OffensePurdue allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #25
52.4% #232
+4.4 pt/100
13.6% #16
15.3% #263
+3.3 pt/100
34.8% #52
27.1% #39
+0.9 pt/100
31.0% #282
25.5% #9
-0.9 pt/100
70.7% #248
—
-0.1 pt/100
Gonzaga net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100
Purdue has the ball
OffenseGonzaga allowsvs D1 avg
57.6% #10
46.3% #15
+1.6 pt/100
13.7% #17
20.0% #24
-0.4 pt/100
36.4% #19
25.7% #16
+1.2 pt/100
28.6% #336
30.9% #81
-0.7 pt/100
74.6% #99
—
+0.2 pt/100
Purdue net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersGonzagaoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Gonzaga shoots
40.0
7.3
21.8
30.9
Purdue allows
28.2
7.0
20.0
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.5%#16 | 62.6%#316 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.4%#73 | 44.3%#276 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#3 | 43.0%#329 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#212 | 34.1%#192 | 33.7% |
Purdueoffense vsGonzagadefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
28.0
8.8
23.5
39.7
Gonzaga allows
29.2
9.2
18.8
42.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#1 | 56.8%#109 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#70 | 39.7%#186 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#13 | 31.6%#14 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#11 | 30.6%#23 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGonzaga
+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#5 of 365
Off reb %
34.8%
#52
Def reb %
74.3%
#16
Turnover %
13.6%
#16
Forced TO %
20.0%
#24
FT rate
31.0%
#282
FT allowed
30.9%
#81
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.1
Purdue
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#20 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#19
Def reb %
72.9%
#39
Turnover %
13.7%
#17
Forced TO %
15.3%
#263
FT rate
28.6%
#336
FT allowed
25.5%
#9
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5
Gonzaga has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#5 of 365) to Purdue’s +5.1 (#20).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Gonzaga2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Emmanuel Innocenti | F | Jr | 6'5" | 35-29 | 24.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 53.4% | 28.4% | 2.3 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 17 | Mario Saint-Supery | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-17 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 40.3% | 3.4 | 87.8% | 22.5% | |
| 23 | Adam Miller | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-25 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 30.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 21.6% | |
| 4 | Davis Fogle | G | Fr | 6'7" | 29-1 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 55.5% | 35.0% | 1.4 | 72.3% | 28.3% | |
| 34 | Braden Huff | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-18 | 25.5 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 67.8% | 33.3% | 1.2 | 57.5% | 30.4% | |
| 2 | Steele Venters | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-10 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 54.4% | 36.7% | 3.6 | 83.3% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Ismaila Diagne | C | So | 7'0" | 28-3 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 11.8% | |
| 35 | Noah Haaland | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joaquim ArauzMoore | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 12.0% | |
| 14 | Alonzo Metz | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Parker Jefferson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Gonzaga2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Emmanuel Innocenti | F | Jr | 6'5" | 35-29 | 24.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 53.4% | 28.4% | 2.3 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 17 | Mario Saint-Supery | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-17 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 40.3% | 3.4 | 87.8% | 22.5% | |
| 23 | Adam Miller | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-25 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 30.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 21.6% | |
| 4 | Davis Fogle | G | Fr | 6'7" | 29-1 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 55.5% | 35.0% | 1.4 | 72.3% | 28.3% | |
| 34 | Braden Huff | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-18 | 25.5 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 67.8% | 33.3% | 1.2 | 57.5% | 30.4% | |
| 2 | Steele Venters | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-10 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 54.4% | 36.7% | 3.6 | 83.3% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Ismaila Diagne | C | So | 7'0" | 28-3 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 11.8% | |
| 35 | Noah Haaland | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joaquim ArauzMoore | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 12.0% | |
| 14 | Alonzo Metz | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Parker Jefferson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Gonzaga
Against the spread
Season
18-16-1
Home
8-7
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
9-24-2
Home
2-12-1
Road
3-6-1
Last 10
1-9
avg vs total −10.2
Under 8 straightOver in 1 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #11Texas | N | L 68–74 | −6.0 | L−12.0 | 147.5 | U142 | 106.3 | 115.6 | 64.0 |
| Mar 19 | #14Kennesaw St | N | W 73–64 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 151.5 | U137 | 105.6 | 92.6 | 69.1 |
| Mar 10 | Santa Clara | N | W 79–68 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 130.9 | 112.7 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | Oregon St | N | W 65–56 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 145.0 | U121 | 102.9 | 88.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Mary's | A | L 59–70 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 143.0 | U129 | 92.2 | 109.4 | 64.0 |
| Feb 25 | Portland | H | W 89–48 | −27.0 | W+14.0 | 150.0 | U137 | 131.9 | 71.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Pacific | H | W 71–62 | −21.5 | L−12.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 116.0 | 101.3 | 61.2 |
| Feb 18 | San Francisco | A | W 80–59 | −15.5 | W+5.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 119.2 | 87.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 14 | Santa Clara | A | W 94–86 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 123.1 | 112.6 | 76.4 |
| Feb 10 | Washington St | H | W 83–53 | −21.5 | W+8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 117.1 | 74.8 | 70.9 |
Purdue
Against the spread
Season
17-21-1
Home
5-12
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
22-17
Home
12-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
| Mar 7 | Wisconsin | H | L 93–97 | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 141.5 | 147.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Northwestern | A | W 70–66 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 121.8 | 114.9 | 57.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGonzagaPurdue
Efficiency
116.7
122.7
97.3
103.6
69.2
66.3
—
—
Shooting
55.6%
57.6%
58.2%
57.7%
33.3%
38.3%
70.7%
74.6%
31.0%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
13.6%
13.7%
20.0%
15.3%
34.8%
36.4%
25.7%
27.1%
7.6%
8.0%
6.0%
6.4%
Style
30.8%
40.2%
52.5%
40.7%
17.7%
9.4%
57.5%
65.6%
40.4%
29.8%
Roster
2.57
1.73
6'5.7"
6'5.8"
56.4%
42.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGonzaga
Returning minutes: 56.4%Returning production: 50.8%
Lost
- Graham Ike 27.7 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyon Grant-Foster 21.5 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Warley 20.7 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Braeden Smith 17.1 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Cade Orness 0.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
- Alonzo Metz no D1 minutes last season
- Parker Jefferson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.
Purdue
Returning minutes: 42.3%Returning production: 32.3%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.