CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT

Howard

Efficiency #160

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-3 conf

Yale

Efficiency #57

2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

70.0

win 22%

Projected

79.1

win 78%

No line posted yet.

Model: YALE −9.0 · total 149.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Yale 66.6, Howard 69.3 → 67.6 possessions

−1.7

Yale offense vs Howard defense

+3.8

Howard offense vs Yale defense

−1.3

Projected total

149.1

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Yale offense vs Howard defense

+3.8

Howard offense vs Yale defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Yale by 9.0

9.0

Howard side ◂▸ Yale side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.0 against a projected 149.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Yale.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Howard is the faster team (69.2, #131 of 365) and Yale the slower (65.6, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.1

model

Projected team totals

70.0 / 79.1

Howard / Yale

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#100

Howard

66.6#316

Yale

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHoward

Where Howard scores: the offensive glass

Howard rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#28); Yale lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#147). Expect about 33.8%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Yale, Howard's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Howard at about 39.2% of its shots from three, Yale about 33.5%.

AdvantageYale

Where Yale scores: the offensive glass

Yale rebounds 34.2% of its own misses (#62); Howard lets opponents grab 31.4% of their own misses (#223). Expect about 33.5%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashYale

Style match: 3-point volume

Yale rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); Howard runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.5% — both habits push the same way.

ClashYale

Strength vs strength: eFG%

Yale (#26 in eFG%) against Howard (#53 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.5%. Historically Yale's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).

ClashYale

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Yale (#22 in turnover rate) against Howard (#13 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.7%. Historically Howard's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

Howard has the ball

OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #198

51.7% #192

-0.0 pt/100

19.3% #331

16.3% #204

-1.3 pt/100

35.8% #28

29.7% #147

+2.1 pt/100

43.4% #17

26.8% #19

-0.1 pt/100

74.0% #130

—

+0.1 pt/100

Howard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Yale has the ball

OffenseHoward allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

48.7% #53

+1.7 pt/100

14.0% #22

20.7% #13

-1.1 pt/100

34.2% #62

31.4% #223

+1.9 pt/100

35.1% #172

38.4% #270

+0.3 pt/100

74.6% #100

—

+0.2 pt/100

Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Howardoffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

Howard shoots

47.9

4.2

12.8

35.0

Yale allows

35.7

4.5

15.7

44.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.7%#345	57.9%#147	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#160	41.0%#277	38.0%
Three	35.8%#68	35.0%#250	33.7%

Yaleoffense vsHowarddefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

41.9

5.8

15.6

36.7

Howard allows

42.9

7.2

15.7

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#107	56.1%#88	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#28	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#133	31.5%#13	38.0%
Three	39.4%#3	31.4%#41	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Howard

+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#39 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#28

Def reb %

68.6%

#223

Turnover %

19.3%

#331

Forced TO %

20.7%

#13

FT rate

43.4%

#17

FT allowed

38.4%

#270

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers+2.8

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Yale

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365

Off reb %

34.2%

#62

Def reb %

70.3%

#147

Turnover %

14.0%

#22

Forced TO %

16.3%

#204

FT rate

35.1%

#172

FT allowed

26.8%

#19

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Howard’s +3.9 (#39).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Howard2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Cam Gillus	G	Jr	5'11"	35-35	32.7	10.8	4.3	4.7	2.3	53.7%	39.5%	3.5	75.6%	20.3%
11	Ose Okojie	G	Sr	6'5"	35-32	25.9	10.7	3.8	1.7	1.2	58.6%	42.9%	1.0	62.0%	22.5%
4	Alex Cotton	G	Jr	6'5"	32-24	26.9	8.5	3.1	1.2	0.8	50.8%	37.1%	6.1	67.6%	18.8%
12	Cedric Taylor III	G	Jr	6'7"	24-23	32.4	17.2	6.7	3.1	2.8	50.0%	29.8%	3.9	81.2%	32.2%
32	Travelle Bryson	F	So	6'5"	31-10	18.7	8.8	3.4	0.9	0.7	50.9%	24.6%	2.2	81.6%	27.3%
13	Danas Kazakevicius	C	Fr	6'10"	34-14	14.5	3.7	2.4	1.0	1.0	48.0%	25.0%	0.1	79.5%	17.7%
0	Isaiah Brown	G	So	6'1"	33-0	10.2	2.6	1.1	1.4	1.0	41.1%	43.8%	0.5	76.6%	20.2%
23	Ed Holland III	G	Sr	6'6"	25-2	9.2	1.8	1.9	0.4	0.4	45.3%	25.0%	0.2	68.0%	13.3%
21	Calvin Robins Jr.	F	So	6'5"	32-0	6.0	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	63.6%	—	0.0	40.0%	15.6%
10	Jeremiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'3"	20-0	7.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	34.7%	26.3%	0.9	42.9%	16.0%
3	BJ Powell	G	Fr	6'0"	21-0	4.3	1.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	48.3%	40.0%	0.2	53.8%	25.3%
7	Julian Johnson	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.2%
1	Stefan Isailovic	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	2.8	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	40.0%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	17.4%
9	River Smith	G	Fr	5'10"	11-0	2.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	18.1%
5	Shane Frazier	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	50.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Howard2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Cam Gillus	G	Jr	5'11"	35-35	32.7	10.8	4.3	4.7	2.3	53.7%	39.5%	3.5	75.6%	20.3%
11	Ose Okojie	G	Sr	6'5"	35-32	25.9	10.7	3.8	1.7	1.2	58.6%	42.9%	1.0	62.0%	22.5%
4	Alex Cotton	G	Jr	6'5"	32-24	26.9	8.5	3.1	1.2	0.8	50.8%	37.1%	6.1	67.6%	18.8%
12	Cedric Taylor III	G	Jr	6'7"	24-23	32.4	17.2	6.7	3.1	2.8	50.0%	29.8%	3.9	81.2%	32.2%
32	Travelle Bryson	F	So	6'5"	31-10	18.7	8.8	3.4	0.9	0.7	50.9%	24.6%	2.2	81.6%	27.3%
13	Danas Kazakevicius	C	Fr	6'10"	34-14	14.5	3.7	2.4	1.0	1.0	48.0%	25.0%	0.1	79.5%	17.7%
0	Isaiah Brown	G	So	6'1"	33-0	10.2	2.6	1.1	1.4	1.0	41.1%	43.8%	0.5	76.6%	20.2%
23	Ed Holland III	G	Sr	6'6"	25-2	9.2	1.8	1.9	0.4	0.4	45.3%	25.0%	0.2	68.0%	13.3%
21	Calvin Robins Jr.	F	So	6'5"	32-0	6.0	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	63.6%	—	0.0	40.0%	15.6%
10	Jeremiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'3"	20-0	7.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	34.7%	26.3%	0.9	42.9%	16.0%
3	BJ Powell	G	Fr	6'0"	21-0	4.3	1.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	48.3%	40.0%	0.2	53.8%	25.3%
7	Julian Johnson	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.2%
1	Stefan Isailovic	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	2.8	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	40.0%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	17.4%
9	River Smith	G	Fr	5'10"	11-0	2.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	18.1%
5	Shane Frazier	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	50.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Howard

Against the spread

Season

23-8

Home

8-3

Road

9-4

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +8.6

Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 6 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

6-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +9.8

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 80–101	+31.0	W+10.0	151.5	O181	112.2	141.7	71.3
Mar 17	#16UMBCAdjEM #147	N	W 86–83	+1.0	W+4.0	142.5	O169	123.5	119.2	69.6
Mar 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	W 70–63	−11.5	L−4.5	143.5	U133	112.4	101.2	62.3
Mar 13	SC StateAdjEM #357	N	W 78–61	−15.5	W+1.5	146.0	U139	105.9	82.8	73.6
Mar 5	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 84–76	−6.5	W+1.5	148.5	O160	121.4	109.8	69.2
Mar 2	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 90–70	−18.5	W+1.5	140.0	O160	127.2	98.9	70.8
Feb 28	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	W 84–59	−9.5	W+15.5	158.0	U143	116.6	81.9	72.0
Feb 21	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 100–67	−12.5	W+20.5	143.0	O167	140.3	94.0	71.3
Feb 16	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 91–59	−11.0	W+21.0	130.5	O150	126.6	82.1	71.9
Feb 14	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–53	−11.0	W+15.0	133.0	U132	122.8	82.4	64.3

Yale

Against the spread

Season

12-17

Home

4-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-7

Road

7-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #135	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #162	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7
Feb 13	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 83–70	−10.0	W+3.0	151.5	O153	121.5	102.5	68.3
Feb 9	HowardAdjEM #160	A	W 87–81 OT	−7.0	L−1.0	147.5	O168	120.7	112.4	72.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HowardYale

Efficiency

106.9

116.5

106.1

108.1

69.3

66.6

—

Shooting

50.9%

55.6%

49.4%

53.6%

35.8%

39.4%

74.0%

74.6%

43.4%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

19.3%

14.0%

20.7%

16.3%

35.8%

34.2%

31.4%

29.7%

8.4%

7.7%

11.2%

9.1%

Style

34.7%

36.1%

41.5%

44.4%

16.4%

9.8%

60.3%

56.0%

26.1%

29.0%

Roster

2.71

2.73

6'4.2"

6'5.5"

83.9%

84.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Howard

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Bryce Harris 32.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Yale

Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Feb 9	2025-26	Yale 87 – 81 Howard

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.