CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAtlantic Union Bank Center, Harrisonburg, VA

Miami OH

Efficiency #66

2025-26: 32-2 · 18-1 conf

James Madison

Efficiency #206

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

78.5

win 58%

Projected

76.3

win 42%

No line posted yet.

Model: M-OH −2.2 · total 154.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: James Madison 67.4, Miami OH 69.8 → 68.9 possessions

+1.2

James Madison offense vs Miami OH defense

−0.4

Miami OH offense vs James Madison defense

+5.8

Projected total

154.8

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

James Madison offense vs Miami OH defense

−0.4

Miami OH offense vs James Madison defense

−5.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Miami OH by 2.2

2.2

Miami OH side ◂▸ James Madison side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help James Madison.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami OH is the faster team (71.0, #55 of 365) and James Madison the slower (67.0, #242). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.8

model

Projected team totals

78.5 / 76.3

Miami OH / James Madison

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#62

Miami OH

67.4#259

James Madison

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami OH

Where Miami OH scores: ball control

Miami OH turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#34); James Madison forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#360). Expect about 12.8%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMiami OH

Miami OH gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.5% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Miami OH's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Miami OH) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Miami OH at about 43.5% of its shots from three, James Madison about 40.0%.

Miami OH has the ball

OffenseJames Madison allowsvs D1 avg

58.6% #6

49.0% #66

+4.3 pt/100

14.3% #34

12.8% #360

+4.9 pt/100

25.5% #332

29.5% #134

-2.4 pt/100

39.6% #64

40.8% #310

+0.7 pt/100

74.9% #89

—

+0.2 pt/100

Miami OH net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100

James Madison has the ball

OffenseMiami OH allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #97

51.2% #167

+1.4 pt/100

17.3% #226

17.4% #125

-0.9 pt/100

30.6% #175

28.7% #92

-0.4 pt/100

35.9% #153

30.2% #63

-0.3 pt/100

70.3% #263

—

-0.2 pt/100

James Madison net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OHoffense vsJames Madisondefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami OH shoots

37.7

4.7

11.1

46.5

James Madison allows

37.1

6.6

18.3

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.9%#2	56.6%#103	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.6%#89	37.6%#128	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#47	38.5%#182	38.0%
Three	37.1%#25	32.7%#101	33.7%

James Madisonoffense vsMiami OHdefense

Share of shots by zone

James Madison shoots

40.6

6.7

11.1

41.6

Miami OH allows

38.1

8.1

17.1

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#91	58.8%#183	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.1%#118	41.0%#209	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.2%#352	40.3%#255	38.0%
Three	35.4%#94	33.1%#131	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OH

+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#42 of 365

Off reb %

25.5%

#332

Def reb %

71.3%

#92

Turnover %

14.3%

#34

Forced TO %

17.4%

#125

FT rate

39.6%

#64

FT allowed

30.2%

#63

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

James Madison

−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#327 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#175

Def reb %

70.5%

#134

Turnover %

17.3%

#226

Forced TO %

12.8%

#360

FT rate

35.9%

#153

FT allowed

40.8%

#310

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Miami OH has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#42 of 365) to James Madison’s −3.8 (#327).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Miami OH

Against the spread

Season

20-11

Home

8-5

Road

10-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.2

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 56–78	+12.0	L−10.0	149.0	U134	85.2	118.7	65.7
Mar 18	#11SMUAdjEM #44	N	W 89–79	+7.0	W+17.0	160.5	O168	134.3	119.2	66.3
Mar 12	UMassAdjEM #184	N	L 83–87	−8.0	L−12.0	163.5	O170	120.2	126.0	69.0
Mar 6	OhioAdjEM #233	A	W 110–108 OT	−3.5	L−1.5	160.0	O218	132.3	129.8	83.2
Mar 3	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 74–72	−8.0	L−6.0	162.5	U146	107.6	104.7	68.8
Feb 27	W MichiganAdjEM #276	A	W 69–67	−11.5	L−9.5	163.0	U136	101.2	98.3	68.2
Feb 24	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 74–64	−9.0	W+1.0	152.5	U138	103.5	89.5	71.5
Feb 20	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	W 91–77	−8.0	W+6.0	154.0	O168	123.0	104.1	74.0
Feb 17	UMassAdjEM #184	A	W 86–77	−3.0	W+6.0	163.5	U163	121.7	109.0	70.6
Feb 13	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 90–74	−7.5	W+8.5	164.5	U164	125.2	102.9	71.9

James Madison

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-9

Road

6-9

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

4-10

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.2

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Southern MissAdjEM #218	N	L 80–86	−2.0	L−8.0	143.5	O166	111.1	119.4	72.0
Mar 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	N	W 87–72	−6.5	W+8.5	135.0	O159	122.3	101.2	71.2
Feb 27	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 68–69	−6.0	L−7.0	142.0	U137	107.0	108.6	63.5
Feb 25	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	W 82–66	−5.5	W+10.5	153.5	U148	116.4	93.7	70.4
Feb 21	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 80–65	−2.5	W+12.5	142.5	O145	119.4	97.0	67.0
Feb 18	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	W 67–65	−1.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	102.2	99.1	65.6
Feb 14	App StateAdjEM #180	H	W 69–58	+1.5	W+12.5	135.0	U127	112.7	94.7	61.2
Feb 12	Georgia StAdjEM #310	H	W 81–79 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	144.0	O160	109.5	106.8	74.0
Feb 7	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	152.0	U144	109.6	106.6	66.6
Feb 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	L 61–64	−9.5	L−12.5	132.0	U125	107.7	113.0	56.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Miami OHJames Madison

Efficiency

114.6

109.2

107.1

110.7

69.8

67.4

—

Shooting

58.6%

53.1%

61.0%

53.2%

37.1%

35.4%

74.9%

70.3%

39.6%

35.9%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

17.3%

17.4%

12.8%

25.5%

30.6%

28.7%

29.5%

8.6%

9.5%

7.7%

11.1%

Style

45.6%

42.5%

40.4%

43.8%

11.0%

13.9%

51.4%

48.3%

29.2%

34.8%

Roster

2.43

3.09

6'5.7"

6'4.9"

85.1%

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Miami OH

Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

Peter Suder 30.2 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Anderson no D1 minutes last season
Leshawn Stowers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

James Madison

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.2%

Lost

Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Elijah Wilborn 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg · transferred to Merrimack

Added

Josh Stephen no D1 minutes last season
Chance Lundy no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.