CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCurb Event Center Arena, Nashville, TN

S Indiana

Efficiency #333

2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf

Belmont

Efficiency #54

2025-26: 26-6 · 16-5 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · 7:30 PM ET

66.7

win 7%

Projected

84.2

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: BEL −17.4 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Belmont 69.4, S Indiana 68.6 → 69.6 possessions

+2.9

Belmont offense vs S Indiana defense

+6.6

S Indiana offense vs Belmont defense

−6.8

Projected total

150.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Belmont offense vs S Indiana defense

+6.6

S Indiana offense vs Belmont defense

+6.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Belmont by 17.4

17.4

S Indiana side ◂▸ Belmont side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Belmont.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Belmont is the faster team (70.0, #96 of 365) and S Indiana the slower (68.4, #175). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.9

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 84.2

S Indiana / Belmont

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#162

S Indiana

69.4#90

Belmont

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageS Indiana

Where S Indiana struggles: shooting

S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); Belmont allows 49.9% (#93). Expect about 46.2%, 5.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBelmont

Where Belmont scores: shooting

Belmont shoots an effective 61.0% (#1); S Indiana allows 49.4% (#80). Expect about 56.0%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashBelmont

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Belmont (#4 in 2-point shooting) against S Indiana (#57 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 55.5%. Historically Belmont's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Belmont, S Indiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Indiana at about 45.9% of its shots from three, Belmont about 36.5%.

ClashS Indiana

Style match: paint scoring

S Indiana gets only 38.0% of its points in the paint; Belmont protects the paint (34.8% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 38.9% — both habits push the same way.

ClashBelmont

Style clash: 3-point volume

Belmont takes 45.7% of its shots from three; S Indiana runs teams off the line (27.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

S Indiana has the ball

OffenseBelmont allowsvs D1 avg

43.7% #363

49.9% #93

-7.2 pt/100

17.2% #216

17.4% #128

-0.8 pt/100

31.4% #145

29.2% #118

+0.1 pt/100

37.2% #123

30.7% #77

-0.2 pt/100

66.6% #347

—

-0.5 pt/100

S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.6 pts/100

Belmont has the ball

OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg

61.0% #1

49.4% #80

+6.7 pt/100

18.1% #274

16.4% #190

-0.7 pt/100

28.8% #241

33.8% #315

+0.3 pt/100

32.5% #248

36.2% #212

-0.1 pt/100

68.6% #309

—

-0.3 pt/100

Belmont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

S Indianaoffense vsBelmontdefense

Share of shots by zone

S Indiana shoots

39.7

2.9

18.3

39.2

Belmont allows

30.2

5.8

15.4

48.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.4%#363	58.8%#177	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.0%#342	28.3%#8	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.8%#355	34.8%#71	38.0%
Three	29.9%#345	34.2%#197	33.7%

Belmontoffense vsS Indianadefense

Share of shots by zone

Belmont shoots

40.0

5.9

8.0

46.0

S Indiana allows

47.4

8.0

17.9

26.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	67.9%#5	56.3%#92	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.8%#128	33.3%#31	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.5%#11	35.6%#94	38.0%
Three	41.0%#1	34.1%#193	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

S Indiana

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#145

Def reb %

66.2%

#315

Turnover %

17.2%

#216

Forced TO %

16.4%

#190

FT rate

37.2%

#123

FT allowed

36.2%

#212

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Belmont

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#178 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#241

Def reb %

70.8%

#118

Turnover %

18.1%

#274

Forced TO %

17.4%

#128

FT rate

32.5%

#248

FT allowed

30.7%

#77

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Belmont has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#178 of 365) to S Indiana’s −0.8 (#217).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Belmont2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Tyler Lundblade	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	34.3	15.6	2.7	1.8	0.9	59.5%	40.6%	8.8	93.4%	21.9%
10	Jabez Jenkins	G	Fr	6'4"	32-32	24.2	9.0	4.5	1.3	1.8	52.7%	28.1%	1.8	72.7%	23.0%
14	Sam Orme	F	So	6'9"	29-28	25.6	12.7	5.0	1.8	1.1	65.1%	39.7%	4.2	63.6%	23.9%
12	Brigham Rogers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-12	18.2	7.1	3.9	1.7	1.0	72.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	18.7%
3	Isaiah West	G	Jr	6'2"	32-16	16.9	2.9	2.6	1.8	1.3	46.3%	27.6%	0.9	69.2%	14.1%
2	Jack Smiley	G	Fr	6'2"	31-0	17.3	8.5	1.9	2.6	1.2	59.1%	43.6%	3.3	81.1%	27.2%
5	Eoin Dillon	F	Fr	6'9"	32-0	16.4	7.6	2.5	1.5	0.9	63.5%	44.6%	3.5	91.2%	23.0%
1	Nic McClain	G	Sr	6'3"	15-15	25.3	10.4	4.3	6.3	3.3	54.6%	44.7%	2.5	66.1%	27.0%
0	Win Miller	G	Jr	6'3"	27-1	8.6	2.9	0.7	0.6	0.7	51.6%	40.5%	1.4	88.9%	21.6%
4	Aidan Noyes	F	Sr	6'7"	14-0	14.8	5.9	1.9	0.3	0.4	71.7%	47.8%	3.3	100.0%	16.8%
13	Cooper Haynes	G	Fr	6'2"	14-0	5.4	1.8	0.6	0.4	0.2	57.5%	60.0%	0.4	66.7%	18.2%
23	Jake Dykstra	G	Sr	6'4"	13-0	3.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	34.6%	25.0%	0.9	—	18.0%
24	Keith Robbins	G	Jr	6'4"	13-0	3.1	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	61.5%	44.4%	0.7	100.0%	19.2%
7	Graydon Lemke	F	Fr	6'10"	12-0	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	45.8%	33.3%	0.8	—	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

S Indiana

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

2-8-1

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-17

Home

3-8

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	L 70–89	+6.0	L−13.0	139.5	O159	104.5	132.8	67.0
Feb 24	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 63–64	+7.5	W+6.5	142.5	U127	104.0	105.7	60.5
Feb 21	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	136.0	O138	106.9	103.9	65.5
Feb 19	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–70	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	O147	116.7	106.1	66.0
Feb 14	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	L 74–82	−1.0	L−9.0	139.5	O156	114.9	127.3	64.4
Feb 12	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–73	+6.0	W+4.0	148.5	U144	107.2	110.2	66.2
Feb 7	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 65–90	+11.0	L−14.0	140.5	O155	96.2	133.2	67.6
Feb 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 54–76	+11.5	L−10.5	132.0	U130	84.0	118.3	64.3
Jan 31	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 46–58	+2.0	L−10.0	130.5	U104	76.2	96.1	60.4
Jan 29	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 60–73	+5.0	L−8.0	151.0	U133	77.3	94.0	77.6

Belmont

Against the spread

Season

17-14

Home

7-7

Road

8-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 7 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

19-12

Home

10-4

Road

8-6

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.6

Over 4 straightOver in 8 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	DrakeAdjEM #210	N	L 79–100	−12.5	L−33.5	153.5	O179	109.5	138.6	72.2
Mar 1	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	L 74–81	−1.0	L−8.0	151.0	O155	119.8	131.1	61.8
Feb 25	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	H	W 98–64	−18.5	W+15.5	152.0	O162	145.2	94.8	67.5
Feb 21	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 87–70	−13.0	W+4.0	156.0	O157	119.2	95.9	73.0
Feb 15	Murray StAdjEM #108	A	W 87–70	−1.0	W+16.0	166.5	U157	118.8	95.6	73.2
Feb 12	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	H	W 91–86	−4.5	W+0.5	140.0	O177	128.2	121.2	71.0
Feb 9	BradleyAdjEM #117	A	L 84–95 OT	−1.0	L−12.0	153.0	O179	108.6	122.8	77.4
Feb 6	UICAdjEM #99	A	W 68–62	−2.0	W+4.0	151.0	U130	107.4	97.9	63.3
Feb 3	DrakeAdjEM #210	H	W 103–90	−9.5	W+3.5	155.0	O193	147.4	128.8	69.9
Jan 31	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 103–86	−3.5	W+13.5	164.0	O189	145.9	121.8	70.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

S IndianaBelmont

Efficiency

100.1

115.9

110.6

107.1

68.6

69.4

—

Shooting

43.7%

61.0%

43.0%

60.6%

29.9%

41.0%

66.6%

68.6%

37.2%

32.5%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

18.1%

16.4%

17.4%

31.4%

28.8%

33.8%

29.2%

9.5%

9.7%

14.1%

9.4%

Style

39.7%

45.7%

38.0%

42.9%

14.7%

9.1%

43.0%

61.9%

35.3%

35.9%

Roster

3.41

2.50

6'4.7"

6'5.4"

—

89.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

S Indiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Belmont

Returning minutes: 89.9%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Drew Scharnowski 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg · transferred to Duke

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.