CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceE.A. Diddle Arena, Bowling Green, KY

Morehead St

Efficiency #266

2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf

Western KY

Efficiency #159

2025-26: 18-14 · 11-10 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

71.2

win 24%

Projected

79.4

win 76%

No line posted yet.

Model: WKU −8.2 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Western KY 70.0, Morehead St 67.0 → 68.7 possessions

+0.8

Western KY offense vs Morehead St defense

+2.9

Morehead St offense vs Western KY defense

−1.3

Projected total

150.6

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Western KY offense vs Morehead St defense

+2.9

Morehead St offense vs Western KY defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Western KY by 8.2

8.2

Morehead St side ◂▸ Western KY side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Western KY.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Western KY is the faster team (70.9, #56 of 365) and Morehead St the slower (66.8, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.6

model

Projected team totals

71.2 / 79.4

Morehead St / Western KY

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#288

Morehead St

70.0#50

Western KY

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWestern KY

Where Western KY struggles: shooting

Western KY shoots an effective 47.5% (#327); Morehead St allows 50.2% (#109). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversWestern KY

Western KY protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Western KY's offense.

GlassWestern KY

Western KY owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Western KY's offense.

AdvantageMorehead St

Where Morehead St scores: the offensive glass

Morehead St rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#27); Western KY lets opponents grab 29.5% of their own misses (#135). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMorehead St

Style clash: ball movement

Morehead St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.4% of its baskets); Western KY allows assists on 57.6% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Morehead St has the ball

OffenseWestern KY allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #285

51.2% #169

-1.8 pt/100

18.0% #272

17.2% #134

-1.2 pt/100

35.8% #27

29.5% #135

+2.0 pt/100

37.7% #109

46.8% #357

+1.0 pt/100

74.1% #125

—

+0.2 pt/100

Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100

Western KY has the ball

OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #327

50.2% #109

-3.9 pt/100

14.5% #43

15.4% #258

+2.6 pt/100

31.8% #134

35.8% #351

+2.2 pt/100

41.2% #42

35.6% #201

+0.4 pt/100

75.7% #62

—

+0.3 pt/100

Western KY net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Morehead Stoffense vsWestern KYdefense

Share of shots by zone

Morehead St shoots

39.8

8.7

21.1

30.4

Western KY allows

33.5

5.5

18.8

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#270	58.2%#151	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.0%#122	33.7%#39	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#86	43.5%#335	38.0%
Three	32.0%#281	34.3%#205	33.7%

Western KYoffense vsMorehead Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Western KY shoots

40.3

6.4

14.0

39.3

Morehead St allows

39.7

6.2

15.3

38.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.5%#357	54.7%#55	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.8%#271	34.3%#49	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.9%#294	34.9%#74	38.0%
Three	33.4%#205	34.5%#221	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Morehead St

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#27

Def reb %

64.2%

#351

Turnover %

18.0%

#272

Forced TO %

15.4%

#258

FT rate

37.7%

#109

FT allowed

35.6%

#201

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−1.7

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Western KY

+1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#127 of 365

Off reb %

31.8%

#134

Def reb %

70.5%

#135

Turnover %

14.5%

#43

Forced TO %

17.2%

#134

FT rate

41.2%

#42

FT allowed

46.8%

#357

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−3.0

Western KY has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.3 (#127 of 365) to Morehead St’s −1.0 (#234).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Morehead St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	George Marshall	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	30.4	13.8	4.5	1.9	1.7	51.8%	37.7%	5.1	83.4%	26.5%
2	Davion Cunningham	G	Jr	6'3"	32-9	27.0	11.4	4.1	1.9	1.9	45.2%	30.0%	2.2	73.1%	29.3%
10	Chase Dawson	G	So	6'0"	33-25	25.7	8.3	1.4	2.8	1.3	47.1%	32.9%	2.6	79.7%	21.4%
8	Anouar Mellouk	F	Sr	6'8"	33-24	24.9	8.0	4.4	0.8	1.3	53.3%	25.7%	1.1	58.6%	20.7%
4	Jon Carroll	F	Jr	6'7"	33-23	24.6	11.2	7.9	0.7	1.2	58.8%	0.0%	0.0	71.4%	24.6%
0	Josiah LeGree	G	So	6'0"	33-9	17.6	7.5	1.7	3.3	1.8	51.8%	36.9%	2.5	81.5%	28.4%
5	Vince Dawson III	G	Fr	6'6"	33-10	16.3	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.2	53.8%	38.0%	2.4	75.0%	13.0%
24	Tamaury Releford	C	Sr	6'9"	33-10	14.0	5.8	3.9	0.2	0.8	64.1%	—	0.0	57.9%	22.5%
22	Tyonne Farrell	F	So	6'6"	27-14	13.1	4.0	2.3	1.0	0.9	50.0%	22.2%	0.7	52.5%	22.1%
33	Clayton Parker	F	Fr	6'8"	21-8	16.1	3.9	2.3	1.0	0.5	37.1%	18.9%	1.8	75.0%	19.2%
12	Jace Winkleman	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	55.6%	33.3%	1.2	—	35.3%
1	Jacob Wilson	G	Sr	6'6"	3-0	5.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	24.7%
15	Jaden Priester	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Jarvis Wright	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Kameren Wright	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Western KY2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Teagan Moore	G	So	6'5"	27-25	29.3	18.7	5.6	2.0	1.7	58.0%	42.9%	2.6	80.0%	30.9%
4	Ryan Myers	G	Sr	6'1"	32-11	22.5	11.0	2.2	1.6	1.1	53.1%	41.1%	5.6	91.4%	26.5%
12	Armelo Boone	G	Fr	6'4"	29-11	24.5	10.9	6.1	2.0	1.7	41.3%	24.4%	3.0	68.4%	32.0%
2	LJ Hackman	G	Jr	6'3"	32-21	21.6	8.5	2.9	1.6	1.1	44.2%	27.8%	2.3	78.4%	23.9%
11	Terrion Murdix	G	Sr	6'1"	24-22	23.9	5.6	3.6	4.1	1.7	34.5%	27.3%	0.5	81.0%	19.0%
1	Blaise Keita	F	Sr	6'11"	31-19	12.9	2.5	3.8	0.4	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	64.9%	12.1%
3	Cam Haffner	G	Sr	6'2"	27-6	13.0	4.5	1.3	0.5	0.4	47.9%	32.7%	3.6	100.0%	20.7%
21	Leeroy Odiahi	F	Sr	6'11"	30-2	10.1	2.1	1.0	0.1	0.4	64.7%	—	0.0	82.6%	10.6%
6	Kade Unseld	G	Fr	6'5"	22-4	11.7	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.4	42.9%	28.0%	3.4	50.0%	20.7%
7	Noah Boyde	F	Sr	7'0"	23-11	11.1	2.5	2.9	0.3	0.5	51.3%	—	0.0	37.8%	16.0%
5	Jack Edelen	G	Jr	5'10"	28-3	7.7	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.5	26.7%	15.8%	0.7	92.3%	16.5%
0	Bryant Selebangue	F	Sr	6'8"	9-0	18.4	7.2	6.9	0.8	0.9	60.0%	—	0.0	47.8%	20.2%
10	Cade Stinnett	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	7.1	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.0	37.5%	25.0%	0.5	90.9%	11.5%
33	Louie Semona	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	8.7	2.9	1.2	0.7	0.3	71.4%	60.0%	1.1	100.0%	14.0%
24	Lawson Rice	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Morehead St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	George Marshall	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	30.4	13.8	4.5	1.9	1.7	51.8%	37.7%	5.1	83.4%	26.5%
2	Davion Cunningham	G	Jr	6'3"	32-9	27.0	11.4	4.1	1.9	1.9	45.2%	30.0%	2.2	73.1%	29.3%
10	Chase Dawson	G	So	6'0"	33-25	25.7	8.3	1.4	2.8	1.3	47.1%	32.9%	2.6	79.7%	21.4%
8	Anouar Mellouk	F	Sr	6'8"	33-24	24.9	8.0	4.4	0.8	1.3	53.3%	25.7%	1.1	58.6%	20.7%
4	Jon Carroll	F	Jr	6'7"	33-23	24.6	11.2	7.9	0.7	1.2	58.8%	0.0%	0.0	71.4%	24.6%
0	Josiah LeGree	G	So	6'0"	33-9	17.6	7.5	1.7	3.3	1.8	51.8%	36.9%	2.5	81.5%	28.4%
5	Vince Dawson III	G	Fr	6'6"	33-10	16.3	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.2	53.8%	38.0%	2.4	75.0%	13.0%
24	Tamaury Releford	C	Sr	6'9"	33-10	14.0	5.8	3.9	0.2	0.8	64.1%	—	0.0	57.9%	22.5%
22	Tyonne Farrell	F	So	6'6"	27-14	13.1	4.0	2.3	1.0	0.9	50.0%	22.2%	0.7	52.5%	22.1%
33	Clayton Parker	F	Fr	6'8"	21-8	16.1	3.9	2.3	1.0	0.5	37.1%	18.9%	1.8	75.0%	19.2%
12	Jace Winkleman	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	55.6%	33.3%	1.2	—	35.3%
1	Jacob Wilson	G	Sr	6'6"	3-0	5.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	1.3	—	24.7%
15	Jaden Priester	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Jarvis Wright	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Kameren Wright	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Morehead St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-3

Road

10-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

6-4

Road

8-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.9

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	L 67–93	+5.0	L−21.0	144.0	O160	96.0	133.2	69.8
Mar 6	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	N	W 66–61	+4.0	W+9.0	139.5	U127	102.1	94.4	64.6
Feb 26	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	W 76–70	+2.5	W+8.5	139.0	O146	117.8	108.5	64.5
Feb 24	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	W 64–63	−7.5	L−6.5	142.5	U127	105.7	104.0	60.5
Feb 21	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 81–59	−8.0	W+14.0	144.0	U140	127.6	92.9	63.5
Feb 19	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 73–70	−1.0	W+2.0	136.5	O143	110.0	105.5	66.3
Feb 14	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	W 94–86	+1.5	W+9.5	151.0	O180	135.8	124.3	69.2
Feb 12	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	W 73–66	−4.0	W+3.0	144.0	U139	117.1	105.9	62.3
Feb 7	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 61–55	+9.0	W+15.0	136.0	U116	101.3	91.3	60.2
Feb 5	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 70–82	+7.5	L−4.5	144.0	O152	99.9	117.1	70.1

Western KY

Against the spread

Season

15-15

Home

7-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

8-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +12.0

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	N	L 87–96	−1.0	L−10.0	159.5	O183	113.0	124.6	77.0
Mar 7	FIUAdjEM #200	A	L 67–92	−1.0	L−26.0	160.0	U159	91.5	125.7	73.2
Mar 5	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	L 74–87	−1.0	L−14.0	152.5	O161	111.3	130.9	66.5
Feb 28	UTEPAdjEM #279	H	W 97–65	−9.0	W+23.0	146.5	O162	134.7	90.2	72.0
Feb 26	New Mexico StAdjEM #178	H	W 93–70	−5.5	W+17.5	151.5	O163	117.8	88.7	78.9
Feb 21	LibertyAdjEM #103	A	W 94–73	+7.5	W+28.5	149.0	O167	135.5	105.3	69.3
Feb 18	DelawareAdjEM #302	A	W 88–87 OT	−4.0	L−3.0	139.5	O175	126.7	125.3	69.4
Feb 14	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 82–80	−3.0	L−1.0	144.5	O162	116.0	113.2	70.7
Feb 7	FIUAdjEM #200	H	W 80–70	−4.0	W+6.0	156.0	U150	117.5	102.8	68.1
Feb 5	Jax StateAdjEM #215	H	L 66–71	−5.0	L−10.0	140.0	U137	92.2	99.2	71.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Morehead StWestern KY

Efficiency

107.5

108.4

112.8

107.5

67.0

70.0

—

Shooting

49.2%

47.5%

49.7%

45.8%

32.0%

33.4%

74.1%

75.7%

37.7%

41.2%

Ball control & glass

18.0%

14.5%

15.4%

17.2%

35.8%

31.8%

35.8%

29.5%

10.6%

8.4%

9.2%

11.9%

Style

30.5%

39.4%

45.0%

39.1%

12.1%

15.2%

47.4%

51.2%

38.1%

42.7%

Roster

2.81

3.01

6'4.7"

6'4.4"

—

87.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Morehead St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Western KY

Returning minutes: 87.1%Returning production: 86.4%

Lost

Grant Newell 25.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Lawson Rice no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.