CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFarris Center, Conway, AR

Oral Roberts

Efficiency #314

2025-26: 10-23 · 5-13 conf

C Arkansas

Efficiency #139

2025-26: 22-12 · 17-4 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:30 PM ET

69.0

win 17%

Projected

79.9

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: CARK −11.0 · total 148.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: C Arkansas 68.7, Oral Roberts 68.6 → 68.9 possessions

+1.4

C Arkansas offense vs Oral Roberts defense

+3.1

Oral Roberts offense vs C Arkansas defense

−3.8

Projected total

148.9

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

C Arkansas offense vs Oral Roberts defense

+3.1

Oral Roberts offense vs C Arkansas defense

+3.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

C Arkansas by 11.0

11.0

Oral Roberts side ◂▸ C Arkansas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.9 against +11.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help C Arkansas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oral Roberts is the faster team (69.2, #138 of 365) and C Arkansas the slower (68.9, #158). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.9

model

Projected team totals

69.0 / 79.9

Oral Roberts / C Arkansas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#159

Oral Roberts

68.7#148

C Arkansas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageC Arkansas

Where C Arkansas scores: shooting

C Arkansas shoots an effective 54.0% (#68); Oral Roberts allows 53.6% (#289). Expect about 54.1%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashOral Roberts

Style match: 3-point volume

Oral Roberts takes 45.6% of its shots from three; C Arkansas lets opponents take 52.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 52.6% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageOral Roberts

Where Oral Roberts struggles: ball control

Oral Roberts turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#297); C Arkansas forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#47). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversC Arkansas

C Arkansas protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for C Arkansas's offense.

DefenseC Arkansas

C Arkansas's ball-hawking

C Arkansas ranks #22 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Oral Roberts's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Oral Roberts's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Oral Roberts at about 52.6% of its shots from three, C Arkansas about 45.0%.

Oral Roberts has the ball

OffenseC Arkansas allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #256

54.9% #328

+1.3 pt/100

18.5% #297

19.0% #47

-3.0 pt/100

28.4% #249

27.4% #48

-1.7 pt/100

34.8% #187

30.1% #60

-0.4 pt/100

74.0% #136

—

+0.1 pt/100

Oral Roberts net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100

C Arkansas has the ball

OffenseOral Roberts allowsvs D1 avg

54.0% #68

53.6% #289

+4.0 pt/100

15.4% #94

14.7% #312

+2.6 pt/100

28.8% #240

31.8% #247

-0.3 pt/100

31.2% #278

39.1% #289

+0.1 pt/100

70.7% #246

—

-0.1 pt/100

C Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Oral Robertsoffense vsC Arkansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oral Roberts shoots

38.9

3.8

13.1

44.3

C Arkansas allows

35.7

3.9

8.3

52.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.5%#285	63.7%#337	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.3%#191	30.2%#15	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.5%#70	38.6%#185	38.0%
Three	32.0%#282	35.2%#262	33.7%

C Arkansasoffense vsOral Robertsdefense

Share of shots by zone

C Arkansas shoots

37.6

5.7

8.4

48.2

Oral Roberts allows

46.4

5.1

11.9

36.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.7%#58	55.4%#73	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	41.3%#216	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	28.3%#362	43.6%#336	38.0%
Three	35.5%#89	37.4%#348	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Oral Roberts

−4.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#342 of 365

Off reb %

28.4%

#249

Def reb %

68.2%

#247

Turnover %

18.5%

#297

Forced TO %

14.7%

#312

FT rate

34.8%

#187

FT allowed

39.1%

#289

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−1.0

C Arkansas

+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#47 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#240

Def reb %

72.6%

#48

Turnover %

15.4%

#94

Forced TO %

19.0%

#47

FT rate

31.2%

#278

FT allowed

30.1%

#60

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

C Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.4 (#47 of 365) to Oral Roberts’s −4.6 (#342).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Oral Roberts2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Connor Dow	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.8	12.5	4.0	1.8	1.9	53.9%	33.5%	7.3	81.5%	23.4%
9	Ofri Naveh	F	So	6'7"	32-32	28.9	11.2	6.0	1.8	2.0	49.8%	29.1%	1.7	67.4%	24.5%
1	Ty Harper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-29	28.8	17.8	2.9	2.4	2.8	48.4%	32.2%	5.6	84.7%	37.2%
6	Cal Furnish	G	Fr	5'10"	33-6	20.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	1.0	54.7%	33.9%	1.8	75.7%	12.4%
2	Chase Martin	G	Jr	6'4"	29-12	19.8	2.7	3.5	1.7	1.0	47.6%	44.4%	0.3	55.9%	10.8%
25	Luke Gray	F	So	6'6"	33-16	17.2	8.4	3.6	0.4	0.7	52.9%	32.4%	3.2	72.5%	26.9%
7	Martins Kilups	G	Fr	6'4"	32-0	17.5	3.7	2.1	0.7	0.5	57.6%	35.8%	2.1	35.7%	12.5%
0	Jack Turner	G	So	6'3"	24-18	23.0	6.8	2.3	1.6	2.0	49.3%	33.3%	3.8	84.2%	21.0%
27	Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams	F	Jr	6'10"	32-18	16.7	6.9	4.2	0.4	1.3	45.8%	24.4%	1.4	70.4%	27.9%
21	Baron Smith Jr.	F	So	6'9"	24-0	7.8	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.5	31.6%	—	0.0	63.0%	19.4%
10	Aaron Jacob	F	Sr	6'8"	16-1	5.3	2.6	1.1	0.3	0.2	37.5%	15.0%	1.3	93.8%	31.0%
20	Lane Sparks	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	13.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	90.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	21.9%
8	Alex Couto	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Laymen McGrady	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

C Arkansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Camren Hunter	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	30.9	21.0	4.2	2.7	1.8	58.0%	36.9%	6.0	79.6%	35.2%
32	Luke Moore	G	Fr	6'2"	34-31	29.7	9.4	2.9	3.5	1.4	47.0%	32.1%	3.9	56.5%	21.6%
12	Ty Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	27.6	14.2	5.6	2.0	1.1	57.8%	37.4%	6.0	76.7%	27.0%
24	Cole McCormick	F	So	6'6"	32-15	22.2	9.1	3.4	1.2	1.0	56.0%	31.4%	3.2	73.8%	22.4%
25	Malchiah Marable	F	Fr	6'9"	33-33	20.5	4.2	4.4	1.5	1.3	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.4%	14.3%
0	Truman Byrne	F	Fr	6'10"	34-0	16.4	4.0	3.0	2.0	1.1	53.5%	34.5%	2.5	88.9%	16.2%
9	Harry Beauchamp	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	15.4	4.5	1.4	1.0	0.7	60.3%	42.9%	2.5	85.7%	16.2%
5	Tyler Lee	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	9.4	2.5	1.5	0.4	0.4	54.5%	37.1%	1.0	65.0%	15.7%
13	Parker Applegate	G	Jr	6'8"	29-0	7.1	2.1	1.4	0.1	0.4	43.9%	21.4%	1.0	80.0%	20.3%
11	Rashad Bolden	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	23.0	8.7	4.3	1.0	0.7	35.5%	25.0%	5.3	66.7%	26.9%
23	Chris Mason	F	So	6'7"	4-0	9.8	2.0	2.0	0.3	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	18.5%
10	Owen Derhmann	G	So	6'4"	11-0	3.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.5	—	9.9%
17	Ethan Thomas	G	So	6'1"	8-0	4.5	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.1	37.5%	50.0%	0.3	60.0%	10.9%
4	J.C. Shulman	G	Fr	6'2"	10-0	3.2	0.9	0.6	0.0	0.0	64.3%	42.9%	0.7	—	11.8%
7	R.J. Newton	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Rylie Marshall	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oral Roberts2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Connor Dow	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.8	12.5	4.0	1.8	1.9	53.9%	33.5%	7.3	81.5%	23.4%
9	Ofri Naveh	F	So	6'7"	32-32	28.9	11.2	6.0	1.8	2.0	49.8%	29.1%	1.7	67.4%	24.5%
1	Ty Harper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-29	28.8	17.8	2.9	2.4	2.8	48.4%	32.2%	5.6	84.7%	37.2%
6	Cal Furnish	G	Fr	5'10"	33-6	20.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	1.0	54.7%	33.9%	1.8	75.7%	12.4%
2	Chase Martin	G	Jr	6'4"	29-12	19.8	2.7	3.5	1.7	1.0	47.6%	44.4%	0.3	55.9%	10.8%
25	Luke Gray	F	So	6'6"	33-16	17.2	8.4	3.6	0.4	0.7	52.9%	32.4%	3.2	72.5%	26.9%
7	Martins Kilups	G	Fr	6'4"	32-0	17.5	3.7	2.1	0.7	0.5	57.6%	35.8%	2.1	35.7%	12.5%
0	Jack Turner	G	So	6'3"	24-18	23.0	6.8	2.3	1.6	2.0	49.3%	33.3%	3.8	84.2%	21.0%
27	Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams	F	Jr	6'10"	32-18	16.7	6.9	4.2	0.4	1.3	45.8%	24.4%	1.4	70.4%	27.9%
21	Baron Smith Jr.	F	So	6'9"	24-0	7.8	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.5	31.6%	—	0.0	63.0%	19.4%
10	Aaron Jacob	F	Sr	6'8"	16-1	5.3	2.6	1.1	0.3	0.2	37.5%	15.0%	1.3	93.8%	31.0%
20	Lane Sparks	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	13.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	90.0%	50.0%	2.0	—	21.9%
8	Alex Couto	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Laymen McGrady	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Oral Roberts

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-7

Road

6-8

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.2

Covered 5 straightCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-16-2

Home

4-7-1

Road

7-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.0

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	N	L 65–76	+12.0	W+1.0	147.5	U141	96.9	113.3	67.1
Mar 4	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	N	W 84–62	−8.5	W+13.5	149.0	U146	120.5	88.9	69.7
Feb 28	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	A	W 94–70	−3.5	W+20.5	149.5	O164	127.7	95.1	73.6
Feb 26	DenverAdjEM #243	H	W 102–80	+2.5	W+24.5	156.5	O182	142.7	111.9	71.5
Feb 21	South DakotaAdjEM #292	H	W 67–62	+1.0	W+6.0	151.5	U129	92.2	85.4	72.6
Feb 18	OmahaAdjEM #257	A	L 71–80	+6.5	L−2.5	152.0	U151	107.6	121.2	66.0
Feb 14	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	H	L 69–87	+5.5	L−12.5	147.5	O156	104.3	131.5	66.2
Feb 12	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	H	W 69–60	−6.0	W+3.0	149.5	U129	106.0	92.2	65.1
Feb 7	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 75–92	+15.5	L−1.5	152.0	O167	99.9	122.6	75.1
Jan 31	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	L 72–95	+13.0	L−10.0	147.5	O167	98.3	129.7	73.3

C Arkansas

Against the spread

Season

21-10-1

Home

11-1-1

Road

8-8

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +2.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-4-1

Road

6-10

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +5.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	QueensAdjEM #191	N	L 93–98 OT	−2.0	L−7.0	157.0	O191	116.0	122.3	80.2
Mar 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	N	W 73–63	−4.5	W+5.5	145.0	U136	104.2	89.9	70.0
Mar 6	BellarmineAdjEM #281	N	W 86–73	−8.0	W+5.0	155.0	O159	136.2	115.6	63.1
Feb 28	QueensAdjEM #191	H	W 84–79	−2.5	W+2.5	163.0	P163	118.4	111.3	70.9
Feb 25	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	W 93–88	+5.0	W+10.0	151.5	O181	137.2	129.9	67.8
Feb 21	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 71–75 OT	−1.0	L−5.0	153.0	U146	98.8	104.4	71.9
Feb 19	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	W 88–76	−10.0	W+2.0	149.0	O164	133.0	114.9	66.2
Feb 14	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	H	W 79–62	−11.0	W+6.0	152.0	U141	114.7	90.0	68.9
Feb 11	BellarmineAdjEM #281	H	W 84–76	−7.5	W+0.5	149.5	O160	128.0	115.9	65.6
Feb 9	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	W 72–65	−6.5	W+0.5	145.0	U137	106.8	96.4	67.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Oral RobertsC Arkansas

Efficiency

103.7

109.3

112.2

107.7

68.6

68.7

—

Shooting

49.7%

54.0%

51.1%

54.7%

32.0%

35.5%

74.0%

70.7%

34.8%

31.2%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

15.4%

14.7%

19.0%

28.4%

28.8%

31.8%

27.4%

10.8%

9.1%

9.8%

10.7%

Style

45.6%

48.7%

38.4%

40.4%

14.8%

14.5%

47.1%

58.0%

32.2%

35.1%

Roster

2.45

1.74

6'4.7"

6'5"

—

89.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oral Roberts

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Oral Roberts's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

C Arkansas

Returning minutes: 89.6%Returning production: 89.3%

Lost

Javion Guy-King 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Rylie Marshall no D1 minutes last season
R.J. Newton no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.