CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Mercyhurst

Efficiency #261

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

Marquette

Efficiency #100

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

65.9

win 20%

Projected

75.8

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: MARQ −9.9 · total 141.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, Mercyhurst 66.5 → 67.7 possessions

−1.3

Marquette offense vs Mercyhurst defense

+0.4

Mercyhurst offense vs Marquette defense

−5.6

Projected total

141.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marquette offense vs Mercyhurst defense

+0.4

Mercyhurst offense vs Marquette defense

+5.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Marquette by 9.9

9.9

Mercyhurst side ◂▸ Marquette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.7 against a projected 141.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Mercyhurst the slower (64.6, #338). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.6

model

Projected team totals

65.9 / 75.8

Mercyhurst / Marquette

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#321

Mercyhurst

69.5#81

Marquette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Marquette averages 70.1 possessions per 40, Mercyhurst 64.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMercyhurst

Where Mercyhurst struggles: shooting

Mercyhurst shoots an effective 49.5% (#269); Marquette allows 50.6% (#131). Expect about 49.9%, 1.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMercyhurst

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Mercyhurst (#25 in live-ball turnovers) against Marquette (#8 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.2%. Historically Marquette's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

ClashMarquette

Style match: paint scoring

Marquette scores 47.8% of its points in the paint; Mercyhurst gives up 47.1% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.5% — both habits push the same way.

ClashMercyhurst

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Mercyhurst (#32 in turnover rate) against Marquette (#38 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.0%. Historically Marquette's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

Mercyhurst has the ball

OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #269

50.6% #131

-2.0 pt/100

14.3% #32

19.3% #38

-0.2 pt/100

26.4% #312

34.7% #331

-0.4 pt/100

25.6% #361

32.0% #104

-0.8 pt/100

74.1% #129

—

+0.1 pt/100

Mercyhurst net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100

Marquette has the ball

OffenseMercyhurst allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #215

50.1% #107

-1.5 pt/100

16.0% #144

18.7% #64

-1.0 pt/100

29.7% #216

29.9% #153

-0.4 pt/100

32.8% #243

42.6% #332

+0.4 pt/100

67.5% #332

—

-0.4 pt/100

Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurstoffense vsMarquettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Mercyhurst shoots

33.8

11.3

23.5

31.3

Marquette allows

39.3

4.7

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#256	60.9%#264	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.7%#16	36.3%#95	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#43	35.5%#88	38.0%
Three	32.1%#276	32.7%#104	33.7%

Marquetteoffense vsMercyhurstdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marquette shoots

46.1

4.0

7.9

42.0

Mercyhurst allows

43.4

8.0

14.4

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#238	57.8%#141	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	42.7%#245	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.3%#306	33.3%#35	38.0%
Three	31.7%#297	32.3%#80	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurst

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#278 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#312

Def reb %

70.1%

#153

Turnover %

14.3%

#32

Forced TO %

18.7%

#64

FT rate

25.6%

#361

FT allowed

42.6%

#332

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Marquette

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

65.3%

#331

Turnover %

16.0%

#144

Forced TO %

19.3%

#38

FT rate

32.8%

#243

FT allowed

32.0%

#104

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Marquette has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#137 of 365) to Mercyhurst’s −2.3 (#278).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marquette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nigel James Jr.	G	Fr	6'0"	32-29	29.3	16.4	3.4	4.9	2.8	52.0%	34.7%	3.8	69.2%	35.0%
13	Royce Parham	F	So	6'8"	31-20	28.8	12.5	4.9	0.9	1.4	58.4%	33.3%	3.3	65.0%	23.4%
12	Ben Gold	F	Sr	6'11"	31-26	27.3	8.0	5.8	0.9	0.6	49.3%	26.4%	4.5	65.3%	17.8%
10	Adrien Stevens	G	Fr	6'4"	32-23	26.1	7.9	2.6	1.6	1.0	56.6%	37.5%	4.5	71.0%	17.4%
9	Damarius Owens	F	So	6'7"	30-1	15.7	4.8	2.6	0.7	0.7	47.4%	27.1%	2.0	71.7%	19.5%
18	Caedin Hamilton	F	So	6'9"	32-17	13.0	2.9	2.9	0.6	0.8	42.3%	0.0%	0.1	67.5%	16.9%
5	Tre Norman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	8.1	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.7	44.1%	11.1%	0.3	64.5%	20.5%
35	Michael Phillips II	F	Fr	6'6"	28-0	7.9	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.3	46.6%	37.0%	1.6	35.7%	19.1%
22	Sean Jones	G	Jr	5'10"	8-3	21.4	6.3	1.4	3.9	1.5	40.6%	32.1%	3.5	68.8%	21.5%
8	Joshua Clark	F	So	7'1"	22-0	5.7	1.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	46.7%	—	0.0	23.1%	16.6%
40	Casey O'Malley	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	14.6%
42	Braeden Brenn	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	19.3%
41	Jonah Lucas	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	19.3%
21	Ian Miletic	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Nash Walker	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Sheek Pearson	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Against the spread

Season

21-11

Home

9-4

Road

12-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

7-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 70–79	+5.0	L−4.0	134.0	O149	105.7	119.3	66.2
Mar 7	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 56–51	−4.5	W+0.5	135.0	U107	85.4	77.8	65.6
Mar 4	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 70–61	−4.0	W+5.0	132.5	U131	108.0	94.2	64.8
Feb 28	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 75–72 OT	−2.5	W+0.5	138.5	O147	97.9	94.0	76.6
Feb 26	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 78–80	+4.0	W+2.0	141.0	O158	114.7	117.7	68.0
Feb 21	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	W 91–83	+3.5	W+11.5	141.0	O174	130.5	119.0	69.7
Feb 19	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	L 80–83 OT	−3.5	L−6.5	134.5	O163	107.3	111.4	74.5
Feb 14	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 94–79	−2.0	W+13.0	138.5	O173	137.0	115.1	68.6
Feb 12	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 57–58	+2.5	W+1.5	138.5	U115	82.7	84.2	68.9
Feb 7	FDUAdjEM #332	A	L 52–55	+2.5	L−0.5	131.0	U107	95.9	101.4	54.3

Marquette

Against the spread

Season

11-19-2

Home

6-10-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

6-11

Road

6-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	XavierAdjEM #129	N	L 87–89	−4.0	L−6.0	157.0	O176	113.7	116.3	76.6
Mar 7	#4UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 68–62	+10.0	W+16.0	142.5	U130	101.1	92.2	67.2
Mar 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	W 78–56	+4.5	W+26.5	162.0	U134	109.9	78.9	71.0
Mar 1	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 51–62	−4.5	L−15.5	139.5	U113	80.6	98.0	63.2
Feb 24	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 76–60	+2.5	W+18.5	150.5	U136	116.6	92.0	65.2
Feb 18	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 70–76	+8.5	W+2.5	157.0	U146	102.2	110.9	68.5
Feb 14	XavierAdjEM #129	A	L 88–96	+2.0	L−6.0	157.5	O184	122.1	133.1	72.1
Feb 10	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 74–77	+9.5	W+6.5	145.0	O151	105.5	109.8	70.1
Feb 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 70–55	−3.5	W+11.5	155.5	U125	104.6	82.2	66.9
Jan 31	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 64–69	+5.5	W+0.5	143.0	U133	102.8	110.8	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MercyhurstMarquette

Efficiency

103.8

108.7

108.8

104.8

66.5

69.5

—

Shooting

49.5%

50.5%

50.0%

52.7%

32.1%

31.7%

74.1%

67.5%

25.6%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

16.0%

18.7%

19.3%

26.4%

29.7%

29.9%

34.7%

7.7%

9.7%

6.3%

10.0%

Style

31.1%

42.2%

46.5%

47.8%

11.3%

19.5%

54.2%

58.1%

34.3%

29.0%

Roster

3.05

2.02

6'2.6"

6'5.9"

84.5%

79.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Mercyhurst

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 78.6%

Lost

Qadir Martin 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Fairfield

Added

Emilis Butkus no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Marquette

Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%

Lost

Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.