CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
W Carolina
Efficiency #217
2025-26: 15-16 · 11-9 conf
@
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
69.4
win 11%
Projected
83.7
win 89%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −14.3 · total 153.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, W Carolina 68.7 → 69.1 possessions
+1.6
North Carolina offense vs W Carolina defense
+6.8
W Carolina offense vs North Carolina defense
−3.5
Projected total
153.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs W Carolina defense
+6.8
W Carolina offense vs North Carolina defense
+3.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
North Carolina by 14.3
14.3
W Carolina side ◂▸ North Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.1 against a projected 153.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Carolina is the faster team (68.8, #162 of 365) and W Carolina the slower (68.7, #164). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.2
model
Projected team totals
69.4 / 83.7
W Carolina / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#147
W Carolina
68.7#144
North Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNorth Carolina
Where North Carolina scores: shooting
North Carolina shoots an effective 54.3% (#57); W Carolina allows 54.9% (#327). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversNorth Carolina
North Carolina protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 13.7% is worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions for North Carolina's offense.
AdvantageW Carolina
Where W Carolina struggles: shooting
W Carolina shoots an effective 50.4% (#218); North Carolina allows 48.3% (#44). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversW Carolina
W Carolina protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for W Carolina's offense.
ClashW Carolina
Style match: ball movement
W Carolina creates off the dribble (assists on 44.3% of its baskets); North Carolina breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.2% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (W Carolina's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Carolina at about 39.1% of its shots from three, North Carolina about 44.4%.
W Carolina has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #218
48.3% #44
-2.8 pt/100
16.8% #184
13.6% #344
+2.5 pt/100
35.4% #36
27.8% #59
+1.3 pt/100
31.3% #274
23.8% #3
-1.1 pt/100
71.4% #229
—
-0.1 pt/100
W Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseW Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
54.9% #327
+5.1 pt/100
13.9% #19
14.5% #319
+3.8 pt/100
31.2% #159
26.3% #22
-0.9 pt/100
37.1% #127
37.8% #255
+0.3 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersW Carolinaoffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
W Carolina shoots
37.7
5.2
15.7
41.5
North Carolina allows
33.9
7.1
22.1
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.4%#330 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.5%#112 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.2%#106 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.5%#198 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
North Carolinaoffense vsW Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
37.1
7.1
14.0
41.8
W Carolina allows
36.6
4.8
15.6
43.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 61.6%#291 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 50.0%#354 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 41.9%#296 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 36.7%#337 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersW Carolina
−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#182 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#36
Def reb %
73.7%
#22
Turnover %
16.8%
#184
Forced TO %
14.5%
#319
FT rate
31.3%
#274
FT allowed
37.8%
#255
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.7
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
North Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#31 of 365) to W Carolina’s −0.1 (#182).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
W Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Marcus Kell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 29.4 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 51.0% | 29.7% | 4.7 | 69.0% | 27.1% | |
| 3 | Julien Soumaoro | G | Sr | 5'11" | 27-23 | 26.1 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 54.4% | 39.8% | 6.0 | 76.9% | 26.4% | |
| 22 | Tidjiane Dioumassi | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-24 | 24.2 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 36.4% | 2.3 | 72.5% | 25.0% | |
| 8 | Tahlan Pettway | G | Fr | 6'2" | 30-10 | 22.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 39.4% | 4.2 | 76.2% | 22.9% | |
| 12 | Samuel Dada | F | Fr | 6'9" | 31-12 | 20.3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 69.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 78.9% | 15.4% | |
| 7 | Abdulai Fanta Kabba | C | So | 7'0" | 29-19 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 67.4% | — | 0.0 | 32.4% | 15.7% | |
| 4 | Justin Johnson | G | So | 6'8" | 30-3 | 15.6 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 22.7% | 1.5 | 63.5% | 29.2% | |
| 2 | CJ Hyland | G | So | 6'1" | 20-4 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 42.1% | 1.9 | 81.6% | 26.2% | |
| 21 | Tayeshaun Smith | F | Fr | 6'7" | 30-0 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 43.6% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 78.6% | 11.4% | |
| 20 | Fischer Brown | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 45.8% | 13.3% | 1.5 | — | 15.1% | |
| 1 | Chase McKey | F | Sr | 6'10" | 4-0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.0% | |
| 33 | Vernon Collins | F | Sr | 6'10" | 5-0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 13.0% | |
| 11 | Drew Hollifield | G | Fr | 5'11" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 1.2 | 50.0% | 55.4% | |
| 17 | Max Williams | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 9.6% | |
| 5 | Titian DeRosa | G | Fr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Matt Able (from NC State), Neo Avdalas (from Virginia Tech), Cade Bennerman (from Northwestern), Angelo Brizzi (from Buffalo), Terrence Brown (from Utah), Cameron Fens (from South Dakota)
W Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Marcus Kell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 29.4 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 51.0% | 29.7% | 4.7 | 69.0% | 27.1% | |
| 3 | Julien Soumaoro | G | Sr | 5'11" | 27-23 | 26.1 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 54.4% | 39.8% | 6.0 | 76.9% | 26.4% | |
| 22 | Tidjiane Dioumassi | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-24 | 24.2 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 49.3% | 36.4% | 2.3 | 72.5% | 25.0% | |
| 8 | Tahlan Pettway | G | Fr | 6'2" | 30-10 | 22.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 39.4% | 4.2 | 76.2% | 22.9% | |
| 12 | Samuel Dada | F | Fr | 6'9" | 31-12 | 20.3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 69.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 78.9% | 15.4% | |
| 7 | Abdulai Fanta Kabba | C | So | 7'0" | 29-19 | 17.3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 67.4% | — | 0.0 | 32.4% | 15.7% | |
| 4 | Justin Johnson | G | So | 6'8" | 30-3 | 15.6 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 22.7% | 1.5 | 63.5% | 29.2% | |
| 2 | CJ Hyland | G | So | 6'1" | 20-4 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 42.1% | 1.9 | 81.6% | 26.2% | |
| 21 | Tayeshaun Smith | F | Fr | 6'7" | 30-0 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 43.6% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 78.6% | 11.4% | |
| 20 | Fischer Brown | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 45.8% | 13.3% | 1.5 | — | 15.1% | |
| 1 | Chase McKey | F | Sr | 6'10" | 4-0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.0% | |
| 33 | Vernon Collins | F | Sr | 6'10" | 5-0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 13.0% | |
| 11 | Drew Hollifield | G | Fr | 5'11" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 1.2 | 50.0% | 55.4% | |
| 17 | Max Williams | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 9.6% | |
| 5 | Titian DeRosa | G | Fr | 5'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26W Carolina
Against the spread
Season
15-14
Home
7-4
Road
6-10
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +7.5
Covered 8 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13
Home
5-6
Road
11-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −2.5
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | ETSU | N | L 67–69 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | U136 | 102.4 | 105.5 | 65.4 |
| Mar 7 | Mercer | N | W 77–73 | +2.0 | W+6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 114.5 | 108.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | Furman | H | W 86–67 | +2.0 | W+21.0 | 148.0 | O153 | 135.3 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
| Feb 25 | Mercer | H | W 78–74 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 113.6 | 107.8 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | VMI | A | W 81–62 | −9.0 | W+10.0 | 155.0 | U143 | 128.3 | 98.2 | 63.2 |
| Feb 18 | UNC Greensboro | H | W 91–77 | −6.0 | W+8.0 | 155.0 | O168 | 129.1 | 109.3 | 70.5 |
| Feb 14 | Chattanooga | A | W 81–76 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 151.5 | O157 | 117.6 | 110.4 | 68.9 |
| Feb 11 | The Citadel | H | W 87–49 | −9.5 | W+28.5 | 146.5 | U136 | 139.3 | 78.5 | 62.4 |
| Feb 7 | Wofford | A | L 66–77 | +4.0 | L−7.0 | 154.0 | U143 | 96.0 | 112.0 | 68.7 |
| Feb 4 | UNC Greensboro | A | L 78–81 | −1.5 | L−4.5 | 154.5 | O159 | 116.6 | 121.1 | 66.9 |
North Carolina
Against the spread
Season
19-13-1
Home
12-5-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
6-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.1
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeW CarolinaNorth Carolina
Efficiency
109.3
115.5
111.3
102.6
68.7
68.7
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
54.3%
50.6%
56.5%
33.5%
34.2%
71.4%
68.2%
31.3%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
13.9%
14.5%
13.6%
35.4%
31.2%
26.3%
27.8%
8.9%
8.3%
7.7%
9.1%
Style
40.9%
42.2%
41.2%
42.6%
9.6%
14.4%
44.3%
57.2%
33.4%
28.4%
Roster
2.42
3.37
6'5.5"
6'6.7"
85.6%
17.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputW Carolina
Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 86.9%
Lost
- Cord Stansberry 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Added
- Titian DeRosa no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.