CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteSanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Iowa State

Efficiency #7

2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

67.2

win 12%

Projected

80.9

win 88%

No line posted yet.

Model: ISU −13.7 · total 148.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, Memphis 70.1 → 70.0 possessions

+3.6

Iowa State offense vs Memphis defense

+5.0

Memphis offense vs Iowa State defense

−8.7

Projected total

148.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa State offense vs Memphis defense

+5.0

Memphis offense vs Iowa State defense

+8.7

Iowa State by 13.7

13.7

Memphis side ◂▸ Iowa State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Iowa State the slower (68.5, #173). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.1

model

Projected team totals

67.2 / 80.9

Memphis / Iowa State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#44

Memphis

68.2#188

Iowa State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis struggles: ball control

Memphis turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#317); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 21.7%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIowa State

Where Iowa State scores: the offensive glass

Iowa State rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#45); Memphis lets opponents grab 35.6% of their own misses (#350). Expect about 36.3%, 5.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseIowa State

Iowa State's ball-hawking

Iowa State ranks #9 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Memphis's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Iowa State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashIowa State

Strength vs strength: eFG%

Iowa State (#20 in eFG%) against Memphis (#55 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.8%. Historically Iowa State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Iowa State, Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Memphis at about 36.8% of its shots from three, Iowa State about 41.4%.

Memphis has the ball

OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

49.8% #92

-3.2 pt/100

18.9% #317

22.6% #4

-6.0 pt/100

35.3% #41

28.6% #85

+1.5 pt/100

34.7% #190

28.1% #33

-0.5 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.2 pts/100

Iowa State has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #20

48.7% #55

+2.2 pt/100

14.9% #59

18.5% #70

-0.1 pt/100

35.2% #45

35.6% #350

+3.6 pt/100

34.5% #194

42.4% #329

+0.5 pt/100

67.5% #333

—

-0.4 pt/100

Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Memphisoffense vsIowa Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Iowa State allows

29.2

8.4

19.4

43.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	63.4%#332	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	39.4%#168	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	34.6%#64	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	32.0%#63	33.7%

Iowa Stateoffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa State shoots

38.2

8.6

14.9

38.3

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#20	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#220	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.3%#210	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	38.3%#12	30.5%#22	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Iowa State

+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#45

Def reb %

71.4%

#85

Turnover %

14.9%

#59

Forced TO %

22.6%

FT rate

34.5%

#194

FT allowed

28.1%

#33

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+4.0

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Iowa State

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-21

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 62–76	−3.0	L−17.0	139.5	U138	91.2	111.8	68.0
Mar 22	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 82–63	−4.5	W+14.5	146.5	U145	118.4	91.0	69.2
Mar 20	#15Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	W 108–74	−25.0	W+9.0	147.5	O182	137.7	94.4	78.4
Mar 13	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 80–82	+3.5	W+1.5	144.5	O162	120.8	123.9	66.2
Mar 12	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 75–53	−5.5	W+16.5	143.5	U128	115.9	81.9	64.7
Mar 11	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	W 91–42	−12.5	W+36.5	149.5	U133	132.3	61.1	68.8
Mar 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 86–65	−16.5	W+4.5	148.0	O151	117.9	89.1	73.0
Mar 2	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 57–73	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U130	85.4	109.3	66.8
Feb 28	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	L 73–82	−9.5	L−18.5	145.0	O155	113.1	127.1	64.5
Feb 24	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 75–59	−14.0	W+2.0	144.5	U134	110.2	86.7	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MemphisIowa State

Efficiency

106.9

118.3

105.8

97.6

70.1

68.2

—

Shooting

48.7%

56.2%

49.4%

55.4%

31.6%

38.3%

72.1%

67.5%

34.7%

34.5%

Ball control & glass

18.9%

14.9%

18.5%

22.6%

35.3%

35.2%

35.6%

28.6%

11.3%

9.6%

10.4%

10.2%

Style

33.7%

38.8%

44.9%

45.2%

17.0%

14.1%

49.8%

59.0%

40.2%

28.6%

Roster

3.19

2.34

6'5.6"

6'5.9"

—

55.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iowa State

Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%

Lost

Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.