CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLittlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

Clemson

Efficiency #35

2025-26: 24-11 · 14-7 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

62.5

win 7%

Projected

80.1

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: CLEM −17.5 · total 142.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Clemson 66.1, Stetson 67.9 → 65.7 possessions

−5.6

Clemson offense vs Stetson defense

+6.9

Stetson offense vs Clemson defense

−6.9

Projected total

142.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Clemson offense vs Stetson defense

+6.9

Stetson offense vs Clemson defense

+6.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Clemson by 17.5

17.5

Stetson side ◂▸ Clemson side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +17.6 against +17.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Clemson.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stetson is the faster team (67.9, #208 of 365) and Clemson the slower (65.1, #330). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.6

model

Projected team totals

62.5 / 80.1

Stetson / Clemson

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

66.1#338

Clemson

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageClemson

Where Clemson scores: shooting

Clemson shoots an effective 52.6% (#126); Stetson allows 55.2% (#338). Expect about 54.0%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversClemson

Clemson protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.2% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Clemson's offense.

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson struggles: the offensive glass

Stetson rebounds 26.6% of its own misses (#308); Clemson lets opponents grab 26.3% of their own misses (#21). Expect about 25.7%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Clemson averages 65.1 possessions per 40, Stetson 67.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashStetson

Style match: 3-point volume

Stetson takes 44.7% of its shots from three; Clemson lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.1% — both habits push the same way.

ClashStetson

Style clash: ball movement

Stetson assists on 58.5% of its made baskets; Clemson breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Stetson has the ball

OffenseClemson allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

48.8% #59

-0.2 pt/100

18.1% #277

17.4% #123

-1.5 pt/100

26.6% #308

26.3% #21

-2.8 pt/100

32.4% #250

33.9% #150

-0.2 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100

Clemson has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #126

55.2% #338

+3.9 pt/100

14.0% #24

15.1% #271

+3.2 pt/100

28.1% #264

31.8% #250

-0.6 pt/100

36.7% #136

30.4% #71

-0.2 pt/100

72.5% #187

—

+0.0 pt/100

Clemson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsClemsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

Clemson allows

33.0

5.5

17.9

43.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	57.6%#133	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	35.1%#60	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	37.1%#135	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	32.4%#88	33.7%

Clemsonoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Clemson shoots

36.3

6.9

13.7

43.1

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#195	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	52.4%#5	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#81	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	34.1%#165	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Clemson

+3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#40 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#264

Def reb %

73.7%

#21

Turnover %

14.0%

#24

Forced TO %

17.4%

#123

FT rate

36.7%

#136

FT allowed

33.9%

#150

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Clemson has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.8 (#40 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Clemson2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Cole Certaat Notre Dame	G	Jr	6'5"	31-16	26.9	12.8	1.7	0.8	0.7	50.8%	36.7%	7.1	89.2%	26.6%
15	Dylan Faulknerat Samford	F	Sr	6'10"	30-30	26.2	17.2	8.6	1.8	1.4	61.7%	0.0%	0.2	56.3%	34.5%
45	Liutauras Leleviciusat TCU	F	Sr	6'7"	34-22	23.7	8.0	3.4	0.7	0.5	57.4%	38.0%	3.6	88.7%	17.1%
8	David Fuchsat San Francisco	F	Sr	6'9"	29-19	24.0	12.7	7.8	1.4	1.9	53.9%	30.3%	1.1	64.5%	32.3%
21	Ace Buckner	G	Jr	6'3"	35-3	19.5	8.3	2.9	1.8	1.0	49.1%	31.2%	2.7	81.3%	27.6%
22	Carter Welling	F	Sr	6'11"	32-24	20.9	10.2	5.4	1.1	1.3	53.2%	29.3%	1.8	70.1%	29.3%
3	Chase Thompson	F	So	6'8"	35-0	8.9	2.3	1.1	0.3	0.3	62.3%	40.0%	0.7	68.4%	14.4%
5	Zac Foster	G	So	6'4"	12-0	18.6	6.9	2.8	2.5	1.3	38.7%	27.7%	3.9	81.8%	29.1%
11	Dallas Thomas	F	Jr	6'9"	22-0	4.4	2.2	0.4	0.1	0.2	71.0%	57.1%	1.0	62.5%	24.8%
44	Trent Steinour	F	So	6'10"	6-0	2.5	1.0	1.2	0.0	0.2	25.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	30.2%
4	Blake Davidson	F	So	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Amare James	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Harris Reynolds	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Will Stevens	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Cole Certa (from Notre Dame), Dylan Faulkner (from Samford), David Fuchs (from San Francisco), Liutauras Lelevicius (from TCU)

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

Clemson

Against the spread

Season

16-17-2

Home

6-8-2

Road

7-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.7

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-21

Home

6-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.2

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 61–67	+1.5	L−4.5	131.0	U128	113.6	124.7	53.7
Mar 13	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 61–73	+10.5	L−1.5	135.0	U134	96.5	115.5	63.2
Mar 12	#19North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 80–79	−1.5	L−0.5	140.5	O159	115.9	114.5	69.0
Mar 11	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	N	W 71–62	−5.5	W+3.5	142.0	U133	119.0	103.9	59.6
Mar 7	Georgia TechAdjEM #201	H	W 79–76	−17.5	L−14.5	144.5	O155	119.4	114.9	66.2
Mar 3	#17North CarolinaAdjEM #29	A	L 63–67	+2.5	L−1.5	142.0	U130	96.2	102.3	65.5
Feb 28	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	W 80–75	+2.0	W+7.0	146.5	O155	114.4	107.3	69.9
Feb 21	Florida StAdjEM #74	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	108.6	116.9	59.9
Feb 18	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	A	L 77–85	−4.0	L−12.0	140.0	O162	115.6	127.6	66.6
Feb 14	#4DukeAdjEM #2	A	L 54–67	+13.5	W+0.5	133.5	U121	87.2	108.2	61.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonClemson

Efficiency

105.1

112.9

114.4

101.3

67.9

66.1

—

Shooting

53.1%

52.6%

52.5%

53.6%

36.0%

34.1%

69.2%

72.5%

32.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

14.0%

15.1%

17.4%

26.6%

28.1%

31.8%

26.3%

11.5%

8.4%

7.7%

10.1%

Style

44.7%

43.1%

40.0%

42.2%

12.2%

10.0%

58.5%

50.3%

32.8%

37.6%

Roster

2.80

3.47

6'4.7"

6'7.4"

—

28.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Clemson

Returning minutes: 28.4%Returning production: 32.0%

Lost

Dillon Hunter 28.6 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jestin Porter 27.1 mpg, 9.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
RJ Godfrey 25.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nick Davidson 21.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Butta Johnson 21.1 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jake Wahlin 20.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Cole Certa from Notre Dame · 26.9 mpg, 12.8 ppg last season
Dylan Faulkner from Samford · 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
Liutauras Lelevicius from TCU · 23.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
David Fuchs from San Francisco · 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
Blake Davidson no D1 minutes last season
Will Stevens no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.