CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA

UMBC

Efficiency #147

2025-26: 24-9 · 17-2 conf

George Mason

Efficiency #83

2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

67.4

win 30%

Projected

73.6

win 70%

No line posted yet.

Model: GMU −6.2 · total 141.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, UMBC 67.5 → 65.0 possessions

−7.1

George Mason offense vs UMBC defense

+1.2

UMBC offense vs George Mason defense

−1.3

Projected total

141.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

George Mason offense vs UMBC defense

+1.2

UMBC offense vs George Mason defense

+1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

George Mason by 6.2

6.2

UMBC side ◂▸ George Mason side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.0 against a projected 141.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMBC is the faster team (66.5, #267 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.1

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 73.6

UMBC / George Mason

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#252

UMBC

65.9#345

George Mason

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, UMBC 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageUMBC

Where UMBC struggles: the offensive glass

UMBC rebounds 24.9% of its own misses (#342); George Mason lets opponents grab 28.3% of their own misses (#79). Expect about 25.5%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversUMBC

UMBC protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for UMBC's offense.

AdvantageGeorge Mason

Where George Mason scores: ball control

George Mason turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#122); UMBC forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#285). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashGeorge Mason

Style match: paint scoring

George Mason scores 46.4% of its points in the paint; UMBC gives up 47.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.3% — both habits push the same way.

ClashGeorge Mason

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

George Mason (#44 in free-throw rate) against UMBC (#10 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.3%. Historically UMBC's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

UMBC has the ball

OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #64

49.5% #83

+1.1 pt/100

14.0% #25

15.4% #256

+2.9 pt/100

24.9% #342

28.3% #79

-3.0 pt/100

34.1% #205

28.9% #43

-0.5 pt/100

76.0% #54

—

+0.3 pt/100

UMBC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

George Mason has the ball

OffenseUMBC allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #113

49.4% #79

-0.2 pt/100

15.8% #122

15.1% #285

+2.0 pt/100

31.3% #149

25.8% #18

-1.0 pt/100

41.1% #44

25.7% #10

-0.3 pt/100

72.5% #188

—

+0.0 pt/100

George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UMBCoffense vsGeorge Masondefense

Share of shots by zone

UMBC shoots

36.8

7.5

16.4

39.3

George Mason allows

36.2

7.3

14.6

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#100	60.1%#234	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.8%#25	38.8%#157	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#171	30.9%#8	38.0%
Three	36.1%#55	32.6%#91	33.7%

George Masonoffense vsUMBCdefense

Share of shots by zone

George Mason shoots

39.9

8.7

16.4

35.0

UMBC allows

43.1

5.3

14.3

37.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.8%#40	54.5%#50	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#34	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.0%#313	36.5%#121	38.0%
Three	33.3%#214	32.7%#98	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UMBC

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#64 of 365

Off reb %

24.9%

#342

Def reb %

74.2%

#18

Turnover %

14.0%

#25

Forced TO %

15.1%

#285

FT rate

34.1%

#205

FT allowed

25.7%

#10

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.8

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+2.4

George Mason

+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#149

Def reb %

71.7%

#79

Turnover %

15.8%

#122

Forced TO %

15.4%

#256

FT rate

41.1%

#44

FT allowed

28.9%

#43

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed+1.6

George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to UMBC’s +2.7 (#64).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UMBC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ace Valentine	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	32.7	11.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	58.6%	38.1%	3.5	77.0%	20.2%
4	Jah'Likai King	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	32.2	14.0	3.3	1.5	1.4	48.3%	32.2%	4.7	82.5%	27.1%
11	Caden Diggs	F	So	6'8"	32-2	22.8	10.0	3.8	0.9	1.3	53.4%	35.6%	2.3	75.8%	26.7%
2	Josh Odunowo	F	Sr	6'6"	30-28	23.0	8.4	5.2	0.9	1.0	53.2%	—	0.0	73.7%	21.6%
14	Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	Jr	6'10"	32-17	19.2	6.5	5.7	0.8	0.8	55.7%	35.7%	2.2	64.9%	20.5%
23	Riley Jacobs	F	Fr	6'8"	32-16	15.5	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.8	48.6%	0.0%	0.4	55.9%	19.4%
21	Cougar Downing	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	55.7%	37.8%	2.4	81.3%	17.3%
5	Daylon Dickerson	F	Jr	6'6"	21-4	14.0	5.6	3.3	1.3	1.0	59.4%	25.0%	0.4	74.5%	22.1%
10	Paul Greene	F	Sr	6'6"	20-1	7.4	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.6	45.5%	—	0.0	60.0%	20.6%
7	Tim Eze	F	So	6'7"	15-0	5.6	1.8	1.1	0.1	0.3	45.8%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	22.1%
12	Jake Stout	F	So	6'7"	10-0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	21.7%
13	Devin Ceaser	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	7.7	4.3	1.0	0.3	1.7	54.2%	37.5%	2.7	—	42.3%
30	Saahil Thakkar	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	37.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	27.6%
0	Regimantas Ciunys	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

George Mason2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Kory Mincy	G	Jr	6'2"	33-32	34.0	14.3	3.6	2.9	1.7	53.5%	38.9%	5.3	88.7%	25.5%
2	Jahari Long	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	33.8	12.2	3.3	4.0	1.8	53.8%	37.7%	3.9	82.6%	22.1%
35	Riley Allenspach	F	Jr	6'11"	32-31	24.9	13.6	6.1	0.8	1.3	60.2%	31.3%	2.1	68.0%	30.2%
0	Masai Troutman	G	Sr	6'5"	31-22	25.1	8.4	3.4	1.2	1.3	49.2%	33.3%	3.1	81.1%	21.9%
5	Fatt Hill	G	Sr	6'5"	23-4	24.1	10.3	3.7	1.9	1.9	51.6%	28.0%	1.1	73.7%	27.9%
13	Malik Presley	G	Jr	6'6"	33-22	16.1	3.2	1.5	0.8	0.8	53.5%	31.8%	0.7	44.4%	14.4%
10	Emmanuel Kanga	F	Fr	6'8"	32-0	13.3	4.6	5.3	0.5	0.5	58.1%	—	0.0	59.5%	20.3%
23	Nick Ellington	F	Sr	6'8"	31-5	12.9	4.7	3.1	0.3	0.6	57.1%	100.0%	0.0	64.7%	21.9%
9	Stas Sivka	F	So	6'10"	29-2	11.0	2.3	1.4	0.4	0.4	47.4%	28.2%	1.3	73.3%	14.7%
4	Dola Adebayo	F	Sr	6'8"	27-13	11.6	3.4	2.3	0.4	0.6	46.2%	26.1%	0.9	80.8%	20.7%
11	Devin Booker	G	Fr	6'4"	25-0	8.3	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.3	35.6%	22.6%	1.2	53.3%	19.8%
1	Brayden O'Connor	G	Sr	6'5"	1-1	15.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	25.0%	0.0%	3.0	—	44.0%
14	T.J. Prosise	G	So	6'3"	6-0	1.8	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	22.2%
12	Ben Woodward	G	Jr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.5%
7	Isaiah Skinn	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Ryan-Preston Mendy	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMBC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ace Valentine	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	32.7	11.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	58.6%	38.1%	3.5	77.0%	20.2%
4	Jah'Likai King	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	32.2	14.0	3.3	1.5	1.4	48.3%	32.2%	4.7	82.5%	27.1%
11	Caden Diggs	F	So	6'8"	32-2	22.8	10.0	3.8	0.9	1.3	53.4%	35.6%	2.3	75.8%	26.7%
2	Josh Odunowo	F	Sr	6'6"	30-28	23.0	8.4	5.2	0.9	1.0	53.2%	—	0.0	73.7%	21.6%
14	Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	Jr	6'10"	32-17	19.2	6.5	5.7	0.8	0.8	55.7%	35.7%	2.2	64.9%	20.5%
23	Riley Jacobs	F	Fr	6'8"	32-16	15.5	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.8	48.6%	0.0%	0.4	55.9%	19.4%
21	Cougar Downing	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	55.7%	37.8%	2.4	81.3%	17.3%
5	Daylon Dickerson	F	Jr	6'6"	21-4	14.0	5.6	3.3	1.3	1.0	59.4%	25.0%	0.4	74.5%	22.1%
10	Paul Greene	F	Sr	6'6"	20-1	7.4	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.6	45.5%	—	0.0	60.0%	20.6%
7	Tim Eze	F	So	6'7"	15-0	5.6	1.8	1.1	0.1	0.3	45.8%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	22.1%
12	Jake Stout	F	So	6'7"	10-0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	21.7%
13	Devin Ceaser	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	7.7	4.3	1.0	0.3	1.7	54.2%	37.5%	2.7	—	42.3%
30	Saahil Thakkar	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	37.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	27.6%
0	Regimantas Ciunys	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UMBC

Against the spread

Season

18-12-1

Home

8-6-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +11.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-8

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#16HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 83–86	−1.0	L−4.0	142.5	O169	119.2	123.5	69.6
Mar 14	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 74–59	−1.5	W+13.5	134.5	U133	115.5	92.1	64.0
Mar 10	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 91–69	−7.0	W+15.0	148.0	O160	134.1	101.7	67.8
Mar 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 84–69	−13.0	W+2.0	142.0	O153	129.1	106.0	65.1
Mar 3	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 91–52	−5.0	W+34.0	142.5	O143	129.9	74.2	70.1
Feb 28	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	W 84–60	−2.0	W+22.0	151.5	U144	128.4	91.7	65.4
Feb 26	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 70–58	−10.0	W+2.0	138.0	U128	110.7	91.7	63.3
Feb 21	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	145.0	U128	110.9	104.1	59.5
Feb 19	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 75–62	+2.0	W+15.0	142.0	U137	111.4	92.1	67.3
Feb 14	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 85–63	−2.0	W+20.0	144.0	O148	123.6	91.6	68.8

George Mason

Against the spread

Season

16-16

Home

11-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

8-11

Road

6-4

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −7.2

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 71–77	−3.0	L−9.0	141.5	O148	112.8	122.3	63.0
Mar 12	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	N	L 57–63	−2.5	L−8.5	142.5	U120	93.7	103.5	60.9
Mar 7	#25Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 86–57	+7.0	W+36.0	147.0	U143	136.6	90.6	62.9
Mar 3	VCUAdjEM #39	A	L 65–70	+10.0	W+5.0	147.5	U135	106.9	115.1	60.8
Feb 28	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 71–58	−3.5	W+9.5	147.0	U129	119.8	97.9	59.3
Feb 25	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	A	L 63–81	−1.0	L−19.0	136.5	O144	97.7	125.7	64.5
Feb 18	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 67–82	−2.0	L−17.0	137.0	O149	106.8	130.8	62.7
Feb 13	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 53–72	+3.5	L−15.5	150.0	U125	90.2	122.6	58.8
Feb 10	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	L 70–82	−3.0	L−15.0	140.0	O152	99.8	116.9	70.1
Feb 7	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	W 60–52	−7.0	W+1.0	139.5	U112	99.5	86.2	60.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UMBCGeorge Mason

Efficiency

109.3

110.8

108.0

105.7

67.5

65.9

—

Shooting

54.1%

52.7%

54.1%

54.3%

36.1%

33.3%

76.0%

72.5%

34.1%

41.1%

Ball control & glass

14.0%

15.8%

15.1%

15.4%

24.9%

31.3%

25.8%

28.3%

7.8%

9.6%

6.4%

9.8%

Style

38.8%

35.2%

44.0%

46.4%

12.7%

12.1%

44.8%

49.9%

29.7%

33.9%

Roster

2.89

3.24

6'5.3"

6'6"

83.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UMBC

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

DJ Armstrong Jr. 32.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Regimantas Ciunys no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

George Mason

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.