CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceAlaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA
Colgate
Efficiency #223
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf
@
Washington
Efficiency #59
2025-26: 16-17 · 8-14 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
69.2
win 17%
Projected
80.1
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: WASH −11.0 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Washington 68.1, Colgate 68.0 → 67.8 possessions
−1.1
Washington offense vs Colgate defense
+4.6
Colgate offense vs Washington defense
−2.4
Projected total
149.3
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Washington offense vs Colgate defense
+4.6
Colgate offense vs Washington defense
+2.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Washington by 11.0
11.0
Colgate side ◂▸ Washington side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.9 against +11.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Washington.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Washington is the faster team (68.0, #200 of 365) and Colgate the slower (66.9, #246). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.3
model
Projected team totals
69.2 / 80.1
Colgate / Washington
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#213
Colgate
68.1#197
Washington
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageColgate
Where Colgate scores: ball control
Colgate turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#47); Washington forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#325). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageWashington
Where Washington scores: ball control
Washington turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#85); Colgate forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#266). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassColgate
Colgate gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Colgate's offense.
Colgate has the ball
OffenseWashington allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #91
50.2% #108
+0.8 pt/100
14.6% #47
14.3% #325
+3.4 pt/100
26.6% #309
28.5% #84
-2.2 pt/100
29.7% #316
31.0% #84
-0.6 pt/100
74.7% #97
—
+0.2 pt/100
Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100
Washington has the ball
OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #187
52.2% #224
+0.6 pt/100
15.3% #85
15.3% #266
+2.2 pt/100
34.6% #56
29.3% #125
+1.4 pt/100
30.1% #308
33.8% #145
-0.4 pt/100
76.4% #42
—
+0.4 pt/100
Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersColgateoffense vsWashingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Colgate shoots
37.9
6.0
21.2
34.9
Washington allows
30.9
9.5
21.9
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#155 | 61.6%#288 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#98 | 37.0%#110 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.8%#18 | 39.6%#226 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#81 | 33.6%#163 | 33.7% |
Washingtonoffense vsColgatedefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington shoots
33.6
10.6
21.4
34.4
Colgate allows
38.5
6.2
13.8
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.0%#96 | 59.1%#193 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#115 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.0%#15 | 38.5%#178 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.5%#307 | 34.8%#238 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersColgate
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365
Off reb %
26.6%
#309
Def reb %
70.7%
#125
Turnover %
14.6%
#47
Forced TO %
15.3%
#266
FT rate
29.7%
#316
FT allowed
33.8%
#145
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Washington
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#129 of 365
Off reb %
34.6%
#56
Def reb %
71.5%
#84
Turnover %
15.3%
#85
Forced TO %
14.3%
#325
FT rate
30.1%
#308
FT allowed
31.0%
#84
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.6
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.1
Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#129 of 365) to Colgate’s −1.3 (#247).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Washington2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Quimari Peterson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-18 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 52.3% | 35.0% | 6.2 | 78.1% | 17.8% | |
| 9 | Wesley Yates III | G | So | 6'4" | 27-25 | 31.4 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 45.6% | 31.2% | 6.3 | 78.2% | 27.1% | |
| 8 | Bryson Tucker | F | So | 6'7" | 21-14 | 22.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.7% | 26.1% | 2.2 | 54.5% | 16.9% | |
| 23 | JJ Mandaquit | G | Fr | 6'1" | 22-6 | 19.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 28.2% | 1.8 | 70.0% | 18.0% | |
| 1 | Desmond Claude | G | Sr | 6'6" | 12-9 | 27.6 | 13.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 46.1% | 30.0% | 2.5 | 87.2% | 29.2% | |
| 24 | Lathan Sommerville | C | So | 6'10" | 22-7 | 14.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 73.2% | 19.5% | |
| 33 | Nikola Dzepina | F | Fr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 40.7% | 25.0% | 2.6 | 50.0% | 17.3% | |
| 41 | Jacob Ognacevic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-1 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 63.0% | 44.4% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 4 | Jasir Rencher | F | Fr | 6'5" | 7-0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 54.2% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | BJ Roy | G | Fr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 35.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Nitu | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Mady Traore | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Colgate
Against the spread
Season
12-19
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −4.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
9-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Lehigh | A | L 69–76 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 100.7 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Loyola MD | H | W 90–77 | −5.5 | W+7.5 | 154.0 | O167 | 139.5 | 119.4 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Navy | A | L 69–85 | +6.5 | L−9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 103.7 | 127.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Lafayette | H | L 69–70 | −8.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U139 | 110.6 | 112.2 | 62.4 |
| Feb 21 | Loyola MD | H | W 101–98 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 149.5 | O199 | 115.7 | 112.3 | 87.3 |
| Feb 16 | Boston U | A | L 58–85 | −2.0 | L−29.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 101.3 | 148.4 | 57.3 |
| Feb 14 | Navy | H | L 80–84 OT | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 111.8 | 117.4 | 71.6 |
| Feb 11 | Holy Cross | A | W 74–70 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 108.1 | 102.3 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Bucknell | A | W 78–59 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 141.5 | U137 | 106.3 | 80.4 | 73.4 |
| Feb 4 | Army | H | W 69–55 | −10.0 | W+4.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 107.3 | 85.6 | 64.3 |
Washington
Against the spread
Season
20-13
Home
9-7
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −1.8
Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-17
Home
7-9
Road
6-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.3
Over 6 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #23Wisconsin | N | L 82–85 | +6.5 | W+3.5 | 156.5 | O167 | 124.0 | 128.5 | 66.2 |
| Mar 11 | USC | N | W 83–79 OT | −3.5 | W+0.5 | 153.0 | O162 | 102.7 | 97.8 | 80.8 |
| Mar 7 | Oregon | A | L 79–85 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 146.0 | O164 | 120.5 | 129.7 | 65.5 |
| Mar 4 | USC | H | W 91–72 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 119.7 | 94.7 | 76.0 |
| Feb 28 | Wisconsin | H | L 73–90 | +2.5 | L−14.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 103.6 | 127.7 | 70.5 |
| Feb 24 | Rutgers | A | W 79–72 | −4.5 | W+2.5 | 140.0 | O151 | 111.9 | 102.0 | 70.6 |
| Feb 21 | Maryland | A | L 60–64 | −3.0 | L−7.0 | 143.5 | U124 | 105.7 | 112.7 | 56.8 |
| Feb 14 | Minnesota | H | W 69–57 | −7.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | U126 | 115.1 | 95.1 | 59.9 |
| Feb 11 | Penn State | H | L 60–63 | −12.5 | L−15.5 | 153.0 | U123 | 91.7 | 96.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 7 | UCLA | A | L 73–77 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 145.0 | O150 | 111.2 | 117.3 | 65.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeColgateWashington
Efficiency
108.6
112.6
111.2
104.8
68.0
68.1
—
—
Shooting
53.3%
51.2%
53.2%
53.4%
35.6%
31.5%
74.7%
76.4%
29.7%
30.1%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
15.3%
15.3%
14.3%
26.6%
34.6%
29.3%
28.5%
8.4%
8.2%
6.3%
8.7%
Style
35.0%
34.6%
44.4%
47.7%
12.6%
14.1%
51.4%
49.4%
29.0%
26.0%
Roster
2.54
2.62
6'5.6"
6'4.3"
85.6%
56.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputColgate
Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%
Lost
- Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
- Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Washington
Returning minutes: 56.8%Returning production: 42.5%
Lost
- Hannes Steinbach 31.4 mpg, 16.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zoom Diallo 29.6 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Franck Kepnang 18.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Courtland Muldrew 7.7 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- Christian Nitu no D1 minutes last season
- Mady Traore no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 57% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.