CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI

Seattle U

Efficiency #125

2025-26: 21-14 · 9-11 conf

Hawai'i

Efficiency #96

2025-26: 24-9 · 16-6 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

67.0

win 32%

Projected

72.4

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: HAW −5.3 · total 139.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Hawai'i 69.9, Seattle U 68.7 → 70.3 possessions

+4.2

Hawai'i offense vs Seattle U defense

−5.9

Seattle U offense vs Hawai'i defense

−7.2

Projected total

139.4

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Hawai'i offense vs Seattle U defense

−5.9

Seattle U offense vs Hawai'i defense

+7.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Hawai'i by 5.3

5.3

Seattle U side ◂▸ Hawai'i side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.3 against a projected 139.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Hawai'i.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Hawai'i is the faster team (72.4, #17 of 365) and Seattle U the slower (68.8, #160). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.4

model

Projected team totals

67.0 / 72.4

Seattle U / Hawai'i

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#150

Seattle U

69.9#56

Hawai'i

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHawai'i

Where Hawai'i struggles: ball control

Hawai'i turns it over on 18.8% of possessions (#314); Seattle U forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#9). Expect about 20.7%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSeattle U

Where Seattle U struggles: shooting

Seattle U shoots an effective 49.8% (#249); Hawai'i allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 48.1%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassSeattle U

Seattle U gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.2% is worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions against Seattle U's offense.

Pace

Track meet

Hawai'i averages 72.4 possessions per 40, Seattle U 68.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseSeattle U

Seattle U's shot-blocking

Seattle U ranks #14 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of Hawai'i's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Hawai'i's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Seattle U at about 34.8% of its shots from three, Hawai'i about 38.6%.

Seattle U has the ball

OffenseHawai'i allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #249

46.8% #19

-4.5 pt/100

16.8% #183

16.8% #169

-0.0 pt/100

23.7% #347

25.3% #11

-4.4 pt/100

34.2% #201

35.6% #200

-0.0 pt/100

70.6% #252

—

-0.2 pt/100

Seattle U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.0 pts/100

Hawai'i has the ball

OffenseSeattle U allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #148

48.4% #46

-1.5 pt/100

18.8% #314

21.1% #9

-4.9 pt/100

31.3% #154

31.8% #249

+0.8 pt/100

41.4% #38

33.0% #131

+0.2 pt/100

73.5% #152

—

+0.1 pt/100

Hawai'i net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Seattle Uoffense vsHawai'idefense

Share of shots by zone

Seattle U shoots

39.2

7.3

14.0

39.5

Hawai'i allows

41.9

7.7

18.6

31.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.3%#262	53.5%#32	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.8%#151	45.3%#307	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.0%#263	35.4%#87	38.0%
Three	33.7%#186	30.3%#13	33.7%

Hawai'ioffense vsSeattle Udefense

Share of shots by zone

Hawai'i shoots

44.9

5.4

9.6

40.1

Seattle U allows

38.4

8.8

15.3

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#139	53.2%#26	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.2%#75	39.6%#180	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.4%#303	40.7%#267	38.0%
Three	31.7%#298	32.1%#69	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Seattle U

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#145 of 365

Off reb %

23.7%

#347

Def reb %

68.2%

#249

Turnover %

16.8%

#183

Forced TO %

21.1%

FT rate

34.2%

#201

FT allowed

33.0%

#131

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+3.0

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Hawai'i

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#88 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#154

Def reb %

74.7%

#11

Turnover %

18.8%

#314

Forced TO %

16.8%

#169

FT rate

41.4%

#38

FT allowed

35.6%

#200

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Hawai'i has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#88 of 365) to Seattle U’s +0.9 (#145).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Seattle U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Junseok Yeo	F	Sr	6'8"	34-34	30.8	12.0	4.0	1.6	2.0	51.2%	29.5%	5.2	69.6%	24.5%
15	Will Heimbrodt	F	So	6'7"	34-33	30.8	12.3	5.2	2.2	2.4	44.9%	29.7%	1.9	59.3%	28.7%
1	Maleek Arington	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	29.6	4.7	3.1	3.9	1.4	36.3%	32.1%	1.5	75.6%	12.5%
0	Brayden Maldonado	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.6	14.7	3.4	2.8	1.6	51.8%	37.8%	6.5	88.7%	27.5%
34	Austin Maurer	C	So	7'0"	35-25	17.9	7.2	4.7	0.5	0.8	55.0%	25.6%	1.1	72.4%	22.6%
11	John Christofilis	G	Sr	6'3"	35-2	16.5	6.5	1.1	0.3	0.3	53.4%	38.7%	3.5	83.3%	21.3%
5	Jojo Murphy	G	Sr	6'2"	35-4	15.5	5.9	2.3	1.4	0.7	48.9%	34.5%	2.5	79.5%	23.7%
6	Houran Dan	C	So	6'10"	35-10	15.0	5.7	2.5	0.3	1.0	58.8%	—	0.0	64.5%	22.3%
2	Miles Amos	G	Jr	6'2"	30-0	11.0	1.9	1.6	0.6	0.8	55.0%	46.2%	0.4	50.0%	13.2%
33	Brock Felder	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.3	3.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	79.6%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	19.0%
10	Ray Adams	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	10.2	3.2	2.2	1.6	0.4	38.2%	25.0%	0.8	60.0%	22.3%
25	Yuto Kawashima	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	8.3	5.0	2.8	0.0	0.3	52.8%	20.0%	1.3	50.0%	32.0%
9	Stratos Papastavrou	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	7.8	0.5	1.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	20.2%
19	Eric Zheng	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Jeremiah Harshman	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	JT White	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Hawai'i2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Hunter Erickson	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	31.4	8.4	3.8	3.9	2.4	53.8%	35.0%	3.5	71.0%	17.3%
4	Dre Bullock	G	Sr	6'6"	33-33	28.4	13.8	5.9	1.9	1.9	47.3%	26.1%	4.1	75.9%	29.2%
14	Harry Rouhliadeff	F	Sr	6'9"	31-30	25.5	10.7	5.0	1.4	1.5	60.6%	39.8%	2.8	80.8%	21.5%
5	Gytis Nemeiksa	F	Sr	6'8"	33-3	23.8	9.2	4.8	1.0	1.1	48.7%	27.6%	2.6	75.8%	22.3%
6	Isaac Finlinson	F	Jr	6'8"	33-16	22.7	9.2	3.6	0.8	1.2	57.0%	39.1%	2.6	65.7%	21.8%
7	Isaiah Kerr	G	Jr	6'3"	31-0	20.7	6.4	2.4	1.4	1.0	48.2%	27.3%	2.8	70.7%	19.1%
30	Aaron Hunkin-Claytor	G	So	6'3"	17-17	28.2	6.0	2.8	3.9	1.9	48.2%	31.0%	1.7	63.6%	15.6%
10	Yacine Toumi	F	Sr	6'10"	30-0	10.3	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.8	58.1%	—	0.0	58.1%	23.9%
8	AJ Economou	G	So	6'5"	18-0	5.9	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.5	35.5%	18.2%	1.2	55.6%	22.4%
9	Jalen Myers	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	8.9	2.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	35.0%	0.0%	0.4	60.0%	23.7%
2	Hunter Carter	G	Fr	6'5"	12-0	4.6	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.4	34.4%	33.3%	0.8	60.0%	23.5%
1	Tanner Cuff	G	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Seattle U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Junseok Yeo	F	Sr	6'8"	34-34	30.8	12.0	4.0	1.6	2.0	51.2%	29.5%	5.2	69.6%	24.5%
15	Will Heimbrodt	F	So	6'7"	34-33	30.8	12.3	5.2	2.2	2.4	44.9%	29.7%	1.9	59.3%	28.7%
1	Maleek Arington	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	29.6	4.7	3.1	3.9	1.4	36.3%	32.1%	1.5	75.6%	12.5%
0	Brayden Maldonado	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.6	14.7	3.4	2.8	1.6	51.8%	37.8%	6.5	88.7%	27.5%
34	Austin Maurer	C	So	7'0"	35-25	17.9	7.2	4.7	0.5	0.8	55.0%	25.6%	1.1	72.4%	22.6%
11	John Christofilis	G	Sr	6'3"	35-2	16.5	6.5	1.1	0.3	0.3	53.4%	38.7%	3.5	83.3%	21.3%
5	Jojo Murphy	G	Sr	6'2"	35-4	15.5	5.9	2.3	1.4	0.7	48.9%	34.5%	2.5	79.5%	23.7%
6	Houran Dan	C	So	6'10"	35-10	15.0	5.7	2.5	0.3	1.0	58.8%	—	0.0	64.5%	22.3%
2	Miles Amos	G	Jr	6'2"	30-0	11.0	1.9	1.6	0.6	0.8	55.0%	46.2%	0.4	50.0%	13.2%
33	Brock Felder	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.3	3.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	79.6%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	19.0%
10	Ray Adams	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	10.2	3.2	2.2	1.6	0.4	38.2%	25.0%	0.8	60.0%	22.3%
25	Yuto Kawashima	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	8.3	5.0	2.8	0.0	0.3	52.8%	20.0%	1.3	50.0%	32.0%
9	Stratos Papastavrou	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	7.8	0.5	1.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	20.2%
19	Eric Zheng	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Jeremiah Harshman	G	Fr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	JT White	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Seattle U

Against the spread

Season

15-17-1

Home

9-7

Road

5-7-1

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-20

Home

6-10

Road

6-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.8

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 85–91	+14.0	W+8.0	146.0	O176	116.9	125.2	72.7
Mar 17	St ThomasAdjEM #84	H	W 67–52	−2.0	W+13.0	145.5	U119	95.5	74.2	70.1
Mar 7	PacificAdjEM #126	N	L 58–61	+1.0	L−2.0	129.5	U119	89.9	94.5	64.6
Mar 6	San DiegoAdjEM #269	N	W 58–56	−8.0	L−6.0	139.0	U114	94.9	91.6	61.1
Feb 28	LMUAdjEM #183	A	W 71–66	+1.0	W+6.0	136.0	O137	112.8	104.8	63.0
Feb 25	PepperdineAdjEM #307	A	W 87–80	−7.5	L−0.5	145.5	O167	124.1	114.1	70.1
Feb 21	PortlandAdjEM #259	H	W 71–59	−6.5	W+5.5	140.0	U130	103.5	86.0	68.6
Feb 18	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	H	L 70–72	+9.5	W+7.5	133.0	O142	95.7	98.4	73.1
Feb 15	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	W 60–50	−7.0	W+3.0	136.0	U110	93.6	78.0	64.1
Feb 11	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	A	L 72–84	+12.5	W+0.5	147.0	O156	105.2	122.8	68.4

Hawai'i

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

5-11

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −5.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-10-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

6-3-1

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	L 78–97	+15.0	L−4.0	158.0	O175	101.8	126.5	76.7
Mar 14	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	N	W 71–64	+1.5	W+8.5	142.0	U135	100.6	90.7	70.6
Mar 13	FullertonAdjEM #205	N	W 78–63	−5.0	W+10.0	157.5	U141	106.1	85.7	73.5
Mar 7	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	L 75–84	−14.0	L−23.0	150.0	O159	97.9	109.6	76.6
Mar 5	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	H	W 93–74	−12.5	W+6.5	149.0	O167	129.5	103.1	71.8
Feb 28	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	W 87–85	−3.5	L−1.5	157.0	O172	121.0	118.2	71.9
Feb 26	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	W 77–73	−2.0	W+2.0	147.0	O150	112.0	106.2	68.8
Feb 21	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	H	W 78–75 OT	−5.0	L−2.0	145.5	O153	105.4	101.3	74.0
Feb 19	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	H	L 75–86	−11.0	L−22.0	161.0	P161	91.0	104.3	82.4
Feb 14	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	A	L 60–84	−3.0	L−27.0	163.0	U144	83.6	117.1	71.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Seattle UHawai'i

Efficiency

103.7

107.3

101.3

103.1

68.7

69.9

—

Shooting

49.8%

52.0%

49.3%

54.9%

33.7%

31.7%

70.6%

73.5%

34.2%

41.4%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

18.8%

21.1%

16.8%

23.7%

31.3%

31.8%

25.3%

9.6%

10.7%

9.4%

8.7%

Style

39.4%

39.8%

43.9%

46.1%

9.9%

13.6%

53.8%

49.8%

30.5%

32.6%

Roster

3.25

3.54

6'5.4"

6'6"

—

89.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Seattle U

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Seattle U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Hawai'i

Returning minutes: 89.5%Returning production: 81.9%

Lost

Isaac Johnson 21.2 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Tanner Cuff no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.