CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL

Charleston So

Efficiency #220

2025-26: 15-17 · 6-11 conf

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

73.0

win 11%

Projected

87.3

win 89%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −14.3 · total 160.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, Charleston So 71.1 → 73.8 possessions

+12.0

South Florida offense vs Charleston So defense

+5.0

Charleston So offense vs South Florida defense

−5.0

Projected total

160.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Florida offense vs Charleston So defense

+5.0

Charleston So offense vs South Florida defense

+5.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

South Florida by 14.3

14.3

Charleston So side ◂▸ South Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.2 against +14.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Charleston So is the faster team (73.2, #10 of 365) and South Florida the slower (73.0, #12). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

73.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

160.2

model

Projected team totals

73.0 / 87.3

Charleston So / South Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.1#13

Charleston So

71.0#15

South Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

South Florida averages 73.0 possessions per 40, Charleston So 73.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 75 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageSouth Florida

Where South Florida scores: ball control

South Florida turns it over on 15.1% of possessions (#74); Charleston So forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#361). Expect about 13.3%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassSouth Florida

South Florida owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.8% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for South Florida's offense.

AdvantageCharleston So

Where Charleston So struggles: ball control

Charleston So turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#298); South Florida forces turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions (#42). Expect about 19.3%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSouth Florida

South Florida's ball-hawking

South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Charleston So's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashSouth Florida

Style clash: ball movement

South Florida assists on 58.4% of its made baskets; Charleston So breaks up passing offenses (assists on 39.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 47.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Charleston So has the ball

OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #66

48.8% #58

+0.5 pt/100

18.5% #298

19.1% #42

-3.1 pt/100

29.4% #223

31.9% #252

+0.0 pt/100

30.5% #296

39.1% #287

+0.0 pt/100

64.8% #360

—

-0.7 pt/100

Charleston So net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

South Florida has the ball

OffenseCharleston So allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #209

46.9% #21

-3.7 pt/100

15.1% #74

12.8% #361

+4.3 pt/100

38.1% #7

30.3% #174

+3.3 pt/100

40.4% #55

43.3% #341

+0.9 pt/100

74.6% #101

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Charleston Sooffense vsSouth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Charleston So shoots

40.6

3.6

6.5

49.3

South Florida allows

35.9

8.0

16.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.1%#193	54.7%#57	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	49.2%#13	34.5%#52	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	34.8%#69	38.0%
Three	35.6%#78	34.5%#218	33.7%

South Floridaoffense vsCharleston Sodefense

Share of shots by zone

South Florida shoots

46.7

5.1

4.1

44.1

Charleston So allows

39.3

9.6

20.4

30.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.0%#299	51.7%#14	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#227	44.2%#275	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#365	36.6%#122	38.0%
Three	32.5%#255	31.9%#58	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Charleston So

−7.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#360 of 365

Off reb %

29.4%

#223

Def reb %

69.7%

#174

Turnover %

18.5%

#298

Forced TO %

12.8%

#361

FT rate

30.5%

#296

FT allowed

43.3%

#341

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed−2.1

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Charleston So’s −7.3 (#360).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Charleston So2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	A'lahn Sumler	G	Jr	6'4"	28-18	30.4	18.9	4.8	3.8	2.5	55.4%	39.6%	5.3	65.4%	34.0%
12	Jesse Hafemeister	F	Sr	6'5"	32-30	26.3	12.7	5.3	1.0	1.4	58.5%	39.0%	5.8	66.7%	24.9%
11	Brycen Blaine	G	Jr	6'5"	25-7	28.0	17.2	7.2	3.1	3.2	51.0%	34.6%	8.7	78.3%	36.6%
5	Jacob Taylor	G	Fr	6'3"	30-24	20.9	5.2	2.2	1.1	1.0	53.3%	36.1%	2.0	74.4%	14.7%
8	Luke Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	20-18	31.1	10.6	3.0	4.4	1.2	56.8%	39.6%	5.0	64.5%	18.0%
7	Nate Brafford	F	Sr	6'9"	32-12	19.3	5.2	3.3	1.2	0.8	54.3%	36.0%	3.1	60.7%	15.4%
23	Reis Jones	F	Sr	6'10"	32-15	18.4	6.6	5.2	1.0	1.3	58.9%	—	0.0	54.1%	20.6%
34	Lase Olalere	F	So	6'10"	32-17	15.6	4.6	3.9	0.7	1.2	66.3%	—	0.0	44.4%	17.1%
0	Armari Carraway	G	Jr	6'0"	24-14	17.0	6.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	48.0%	32.8%	5.7	69.0%	23.8%
2	Jaquias Franklin	G	Sr	6'1"	24-3	14.6	3.8	1.5	2.6	1.3	48.8%	29.6%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Trent Coleman	F	Sr	6'7"	24-1	10.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.1	60.7%	40.0%	1.3	71.9%	15.1%
22	Devin Brafford	F	So	7'1"	19-1	7.3	2.5	2.5	0.5	0.7	52.9%	20.0%	0.8	52.6%	22.4%
24	Easton Hupp	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	5.5	3.5	0.8	0.0	1.0	42.9%	22.2%	2.3	100.0%	42.7%
10	AJ Gladieux	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	4.5	1.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
6	Anthony Gause	G	So	6'3"	1-0	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	19.9%
13	Kaleb Lofton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Charleston So2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	A'lahn Sumler	G	Jr	6'4"	28-18	30.4	18.9	4.8	3.8	2.5	55.4%	39.6%	5.3	65.4%	34.0%
12	Jesse Hafemeister	F	Sr	6'5"	32-30	26.3	12.7	5.3	1.0	1.4	58.5%	39.0%	5.8	66.7%	24.9%
11	Brycen Blaine	G	Jr	6'5"	25-7	28.0	17.2	7.2	3.1	3.2	51.0%	34.6%	8.7	78.3%	36.6%
5	Jacob Taylor	G	Fr	6'3"	30-24	20.9	5.2	2.2	1.1	1.0	53.3%	36.1%	2.0	74.4%	14.7%
8	Luke Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	20-18	31.1	10.6	3.0	4.4	1.2	56.8%	39.6%	5.0	64.5%	18.0%
7	Nate Brafford	F	Sr	6'9"	32-12	19.3	5.2	3.3	1.2	0.8	54.3%	36.0%	3.1	60.7%	15.4%
23	Reis Jones	F	Sr	6'10"	32-15	18.4	6.6	5.2	1.0	1.3	58.9%	—	0.0	54.1%	20.6%
34	Lase Olalere	F	So	6'10"	32-17	15.6	4.6	3.9	0.7	1.2	66.3%	—	0.0	44.4%	17.1%
0	Armari Carraway	G	Jr	6'0"	24-14	17.0	6.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	48.0%	32.8%	5.7	69.0%	23.8%
2	Jaquias Franklin	G	Sr	6'1"	24-3	14.6	3.8	1.5	2.6	1.3	48.8%	29.6%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Trent Coleman	F	Sr	6'7"	24-1	10.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.1	60.7%	40.0%	1.3	71.9%	15.1%
22	Devin Brafford	F	So	7'1"	19-1	7.3	2.5	2.5	0.5	0.7	52.9%	20.0%	0.8	52.6%	22.4%
24	Easton Hupp	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	5.5	3.5	0.8	0.0	1.0	42.9%	22.2%	2.3	100.0%	42.7%
10	AJ Gladieux	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	4.5	1.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
6	Anthony Gause	G	So	6'3"	1-0	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	19.9%
13	Kaleb Lofton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Charleston So

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

6-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Covered 3 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-10

Home

8-3

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +8.1

Over 4 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	WinthropAdjEM #116	N	L 81–86	+5.5	W+0.5	163.5	O167	104.8	111.2	77.3
Feb 28	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	W 92–75	+4.0	W+21.0	149.5	O167	129.9	105.9	70.8
Feb 26	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	W 86–84	+8.0	W+10.0	164.0	O170	107.4	104.9	80.1
Feb 21	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	L 96–107 2OT	−2.5	L−13.5	154.0	O203	112.9	125.8	85.0
Feb 17	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 75–66	−17.5	L−8.5	160.5	U141	100.9	88.8	74.4
Feb 14	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 80–90	+4.5	L−5.5	162.0	O170	103.8	116.7	77.1
Feb 12	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 84–67	−1.5	W+15.5	146.5	O151	124.5	99.3	67.5
Feb 7	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 94–100 OT	−1.0	L−7.0	151.5	O194	122.1	129.9	77.0
Feb 4	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 55–80	+14.0	L−11.0	162.5	U135	78.1	113.6	70.4
Jan 29	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	L 75–84	−1.0	L−10.0	162.5	U159	95.7	107.2	78.4

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Charleston SoSouth Florida

Efficiency

106.9

114.7

109.1

103.3

71.1

71.0

—

Shooting

54.1%

50.6%

54.6%

52.0%

35.6%

32.5%

64.8%

74.6%

30.5%

40.4%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

15.1%

12.8%

19.1%

29.4%

38.1%

30.3%

31.9%

10.6%

8.6%

10.0%

13.1%

Style

49.5%

43.8%

40.6%

43.5%

11.0%

16.5%

54.9%

58.4%

39.5%

29.9%

Roster

3.20

3.18

6'5.1"

6'4.3"

—

84.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Charleston So

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.