CBB Studies
The research behind Matchups and Ratings: what was tested, what held up and what didn't.
How Our College Basketball Projections Work
A simple possessions-times-efficiency model, built on three seasons and tested on a fourth it had never seen, against the closing line.
Home Court Advantage in College Basketball
Conference home edges are smaller than non-conference ones, and crowds matter. But the version that captured both didn't project an unseen season any better, so the simpler model stayed.
What Offense and Defense Each Control in College Basketball
How often a team shoots threes is a real skill; how well it has shot them barely is. Blocks and steals belong to the defense. The slower team leans the game toward its own pace.
Roster Turnover and Next Season's Rating
Returning production clearly predicts next season's rating change. The size of the effect isn't pinned down well enough yet to correct a preseason number.
CBB Studies collects the research behind the Matchups and Ratings pages: how the tempo-free model was built and tested on a season it had never seen, what controls each of the four factors when two teams meet, whether home-court advantage is one number, and what roster turnover does to next season's rating. Each one shows its numbers and says plainly what did not hold up.
What these numbers mean: model calibration.