CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SDField of 68 Opening Day Marathon
Murray St
Efficiency #108
2025-26: 20-13 · 12-9 conf
vs
Tennessee St
Efficiency #155
2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · 11:30 AM ET
82.8
win 55%
Projected
81.2
win 45%
No line posted yet.
Model: MUR −1.6 · total 164.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee St 70.3, Murray St 71.2 → 73.2 possessions
+10.6
Tennessee St offense vs Murray St defense
+1.8
Murray St offense vs Tennessee St defense
+3.4
Projected total
164.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Tennessee St offense vs Murray St defense
+1.8
Murray St offense vs Tennessee St defense
−3.4
Murray St by 1.6
1.6
Murray St side ◂▸ Tennessee St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Murray St is the faster team (72.3, #20 of 365) and Tennessee St the slower (70.8, #61). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
73.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
164.0
model
Projected team totals
82.8 / 81.2
Murray St / Tennessee St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.2#12
Murray St
70.3#32
Tennessee St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Tennessee St averages 70.8 possessions per 40, Murray St 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashTennessee St
Style match: 3-point volume
Tennessee St rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); Murray St runs teams off the line (27.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 24.7% — both habits push the same way.
ClashTennessee St
Style match: ball movement
Tennessee St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.5% of its baskets); Murray St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageMurray St
Where Murray St scores: shooting
Murray St shoots an effective 53.8% (#70); Tennessee St allows 51.6% (#190). Expect about 52.9%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTennessee St
Where Tennessee St scores: the offensive glass
Tennessee St rebounds 34.8% of its own misses (#53); Murray St lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#214). Expect about 33.9%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMurray St
Murray St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Murray St's offense.
Murray St has the ball
OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #70
51.6% #190
+2.4 pt/100
16.3% #158
19.8% #28
-2.1 pt/100
32.6% #100
30.6% #184
+1.0 pt/100
38.6% #86
41.4% #317
+0.7 pt/100
75.5% #67
—
+0.3 pt/100
Murray St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100
Tennessee St has the ball
OffenseMurray St allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
52.4% #236
-0.2 pt/100
16.7% #176
15.8% #232
+0.8 pt/100
34.8% #53
31.3% #214
+2.1 pt/100
33.4% #228
32.2% #109
-0.3 pt/100
76.0% #52
—
+0.3 pt/100
Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Murray Stoffense vsTennessee Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
Tennessee St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9356.3%#9358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.9%#10542.9%#24739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.6%#9140.7%#26438.0%
Three35.0%#12034.0%#18333.7%
Tennessee Stoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Tennessee St shoots
Murray St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.4%#15157.1%#11758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.0%#30340.2%#19539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.4%#25641.2%#28138.0%
Three33.3%#20836.2%#31033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Murray St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#100
Def reb %
68.7%
#214
Turnover %
16.3%
#158
Forced TO %
15.8%
#232
FT rate
38.6%
#86
FT allowed
32.2%
#109
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Tennessee St
+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365
Off reb %
34.8%
#53
Def reb %
69.4%
#184
Turnover %
16.7%
#176
Forced TO %
19.8%
#28
FT rate
33.4%
#228
FT allowed
41.4%
#317
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−1.6

Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#103 of 365) to Tennessee St’s +1.6 (#115).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Murray St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
22Javon JacksonGSr6'3"33-3325.616.52.32.92.449.2%36.9%4.585.5%37.8%
77Roman DomonGFr6'9"33-925.314.25.21.61.755.4%36.8%3.576.8%28.8%
33Fred KingCSr6'9"32-3124.713.18.40.81.966.0%54.5%0.361.4%26.9%
9Layne TaylorGSo5'11"31-2624.78.02.73.21.052.7%34.5%4.678.9%18.4%
13Mason MillerFSr6'9"32-2422.85.93.80.50.555.6%39.2%3.878.4%13.4%
8JJ TraynorFSr6'9"32-3222.67.43.50.71.253.8%29.3%2.369.2%19.2%
10KJ TennerGSo6'0"33-716.56.01.52.10.852.7%42.6%1.474.1%20.6%
2Mathis CourbonGFr6'6"32-015.84.62.01.20.853.9%40.8%1.579.2%16.6%
34Brayden ShorterGJr6'5"33-114.65.71.80.50.546.6%28.4%4.790.0%23.5%
11Dylan AndersonCJr7'0"31-26.81.51.70.40.542.4%20.0%0.860.0%17.2%
6Brock ViceFSo6'10"29-05.62.01.90.20.366.7%36.4%0.468.8%18.3%
7Ben ShtolzbergGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Dillon ButlerGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Lachlan CrateGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Tristian FordGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Murray StTennessee St
Efficiency
113.2
109.4
110.0
108.3
71.2
70.3
—
—
Shooting
53.8%
50.0%
55.0%
50.0%
35.0%
33.3%
75.5%
76.0%
38.6%
33.4%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
16.7%
15.8%
19.8%
32.6%
34.8%
31.3%
30.6%
9.5%
10.3%
8.1%
7.7%
Style
44.8%
30.7%
40.4%
45.1%
12.0%
18.3%
49.1%
45.5%
38.1%
29.7%
Roster
2.84
3.38
6'5.9"
6'3.7"
—
61.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Murray St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Tennessee St
Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%
Lost
  • Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
  • Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
  • Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
  • Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.