CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTempleton Center, Clinton, SC
St Thomas
Efficiency #84
2025-26: 24-10 · 13-5 conf
@
Presbyterian
Efficiency #252
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-10 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
73.7
win 58%
Projected
71.2
win 42%
No line posted yet.
Model: STMN −2.4 · total 144.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Presbyterian 66.2, St Thomas 69.0 → 66.9 possessions
−3.0
Presbyterian offense vs St Thomas defense
−3.3
St Thomas offense vs Presbyterian defense
+3.0
Projected total
144.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Presbyterian offense vs St Thomas defense
−3.3
St Thomas offense vs Presbyterian defense
−3.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
St Thomas by 2.4
2.4
St Thomas side ◂▸ Presbyterian side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Presbyterian.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Thomas is the faster team (69.7, #104 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (66.1, #292). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.9
model
Projected team totals
73.7 / 71.2
St Thomas / Presbyterian
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#122
St Thomas
66.2#332
Presbyterian
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSt Thomas
Where St Thomas scores: shooting
St Thomas shoots an effective 58.9% (#5); Presbyterian allows 51.2% (#170). Expect about 55.6%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSt Thomas
St Thomas gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.1% is worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions against St Thomas's offense.
TurnoversSt Thomas
St Thomas protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for St Thomas's offense.
AdvantagePresbyterian
Where Presbyterian struggles: ball control
Presbyterian turns it over on 19.3% of possessions (#332); St Thomas forces turnovers on 17.0% of opponent possessions (#149). Expect about 18.4%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.
DefensePresbyterian
Presbyterian's shot-blocking
Presbyterian ranks #36 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.0% of St Thomas's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashSt Thomas
Style clash: ball movement
St Thomas assists on 56.7% of its made baskets; Presbyterian breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
St Thomas has the ball
OffensePresbyterian allowsvs D1 avg
58.9% #5
51.2% #170
+6.2 pt/100
14.3% #36
15.7% #233
+2.5 pt/100
22.6% #353
30.6% #188
-3.2 pt/100
33.8% #220
37.1% #241
+0.1 pt/100
68.7% #305
—
-0.3 pt/100
St Thomas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100
Presbyterian has the ball
OffenseSt Thomas allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #196
50.7% #139
-0.7 pt/100
19.3% #332
17.0% #149
-2.0 pt/100
33.1% #86
26.6% #25
+0.0 pt/100
39.3% #71
30.7% #78
-0.1 pt/100
68.5% #312
—
-0.3 pt/100
Presbyterian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSt Thomasoffense vsPresbyteriandefense
Share of shots by zone
St Thomas shoots
44.3
3.7
5.5
46.5
Presbyterian allows
42.0
6.2
15.8
36.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.5%#3 | 55.1%#61 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.6%#44 | 42.9%#247 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#234 | 40.0%#243 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.0%#57 | 34.7%#235 | 33.7% |
Presbyterianoffense vsSt Thomasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Presbyterian shoots
42.5
11.2
18.8
27.6
St Thomas allows
39.8
4.7
14.0
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.6%#175 | 58.4%#158 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.6%#30 | 33.8%#41 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#192 | 37.9%#156 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#301 | 31.7%#52 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSt Thomas
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#120 of 365
Off reb %
22.6%
#353
Def reb %
73.4%
#25
Turnover %
14.3%
#36
Forced TO %
17.0%
#149
FT rate
33.8%
#220
FT allowed
30.7%
#78
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Presbyterian
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365
Off reb %
33.1%
#86
Def reb %
69.4%
#188
Turnover %
19.3%
#332
Forced TO %
15.7%
#233
FT rate
39.3%
#71
FT allowed
37.1%
#241
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
St Thomas has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#120 of 365) to Presbyterian’s −0.9 (#225).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
St Thomas2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nick Janowski | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 31.5 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 57.0% | 33.9% | 5.4 | 64.1% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Nolan Minessale | G | So | 6'5" | 34-34 | 31.0 | 19.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 55.4% | 30.6% | 4.2 | 75.0% | 34.7% | |
| 32 | Carter Bjerke | F | Jr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 24.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 67.3% | 44.9% | 5.2 | 58.8% | 17.9% | |
| 34 | Ben Oosterbaan | F | So | 6'6" | 34-34 | 24.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 36.8% | 3.1 | 69.2% | 16.9% | |
| 0 | Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | F | So | 6'7" | 33-0 | 21.4 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 60.0% | 32.5% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 26.2% | |
| 11 | Austin Herro | G | So | 6'3" | 27-24 | 23.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 37.8% | 1.4 | 72.0% | 13.8% | |
| 12 | Ryan Dufault | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 68.9% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.0% | 15.6% | |
| 2 | Jermaine Coleman | G | So | 6'7" | 34-0 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 54.7% | 34.0% | 3.0 | 64.7% | 17.7% | |
| 1 | Hayden Tibbits | G | So | 5'11" | 26-1 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 53.9% | 34.1% | 1.7 | 52.4% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Ryan Lafferty | G | So | 6'5" | 11-0 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 45.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 9.5% | |
| 5 | Tim Franks | G | Fr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 71.4% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Tommy Humphries Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 9-0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 34.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 33.3% | 20.4% | |
| 15 | Adam Tauer | G | So | 6'3" | 12-0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 11.3% | |
| 20 | Jack Tauer | G | Sr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 9.9% | |
| 24 | Kyle Counts | F | Fr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 83.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 12.3% | |
| 13 | Luka Momcilovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Presbyterian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carl Parrish | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.5 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 40.2% | 5.7 | 84.5% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jonah Pierce | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 55.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 57.3% | 31.5% | |
| 7 | Triston Wilson | G | So | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 46.4% | 23.7% | 2.8 | 82.4% | 25.3% | |
| 42 | Jaylen Peterson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 30.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 61.4% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 54.9% | 20.8% | |
| 4 | Josh Pickett | G | So | 6'5" | 33-27 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.6% | 34.7% | 3.7 | 68.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Iverson King | G | So | 6'6" | 21-2 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 41.5% | 22.2% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 19.3% | |
| 6 | Chidi Chiakwelu | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Khalon Hudson | G | So | 6'6" | 32-0 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 53.9% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 90.3% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | JD Bowden | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 37.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 | 87.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Erik Taylor | G | So | 6'1" | 6-4 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 51.9% | 29.4% | 2.8 | 76.9% | 19.0% | |
| 10 | Amare Anderson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 20-0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 17.9% | |
| 1 | Luke Allison | G | So | 6'0" | 7-0 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.6 | — | 14.3% | |
| 13 | Augustine Ayelyine | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
St Thomas2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nick Janowski | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 31.5 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 57.0% | 33.9% | 5.4 | 64.1% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Nolan Minessale | G | So | 6'5" | 34-34 | 31.0 | 19.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 55.4% | 30.6% | 4.2 | 75.0% | 34.7% | |
| 32 | Carter Bjerke | F | Jr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 24.9 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 67.3% | 44.9% | 5.2 | 58.8% | 17.9% | |
| 34 | Ben Oosterbaan | F | So | 6'6" | 34-34 | 24.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 59.5% | 36.8% | 3.1 | 69.2% | 16.9% | |
| 0 | Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | F | So | 6'7" | 33-0 | 21.4 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 60.0% | 32.5% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 26.2% | |
| 11 | Austin Herro | G | So | 6'3" | 27-24 | 23.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 37.8% | 1.4 | 72.0% | 13.8% | |
| 12 | Ryan Dufault | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 68.9% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.0% | 15.6% | |
| 2 | Jermaine Coleman | G | So | 6'7" | 34-0 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 54.7% | 34.0% | 3.0 | 64.7% | 17.7% | |
| 1 | Hayden Tibbits | G | So | 5'11" | 26-1 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 53.9% | 34.1% | 1.7 | 52.4% | 16.2% | |
| 3 | Ryan Lafferty | G | So | 6'5" | 11-0 | 13.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 45.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 9.5% | |
| 5 | Tim Franks | G | Fr | 6'5" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 71.4% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Tommy Humphries Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 9-0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 34.6% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 33.3% | 20.4% | |
| 15 | Adam Tauer | G | So | 6'3" | 12-0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 11.3% | |
| 20 | Jack Tauer | G | Sr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 9.9% | |
| 24 | Kyle Counts | F | Fr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 83.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | — | 12.3% | |
| 13 | Luka Momcilovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26St Thomas
Against the spread
Season
15-16
Home
6-6
Road
8-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +3.5
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-15-1
Home
7-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −5.8
Under 6 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Seattle U | A | L 52–67 | +2.0 | L−13.0 | 145.5 | U119 | 74.2 | 95.5 | 70.1 |
| Mar 7 | North Dakota | N | L 66–67 | −11.5 | L−12.5 | 153.5 | U133 | 102.4 | 104.0 | 64.4 |
| Mar 5 | S Dakota St | N | W 80–67 | −5.0 | W+8.0 | 150.0 | U147 | 124.5 | 104.3 | 64.3 |
| Feb 28 | Omaha | H | W 68–53 | −11.5 | W+3.5 | 159.5 | U121 | 104.3 | 81.3 | 65.2 |
| Feb 26 | N Dakota St | H | W 84–62 | −3.0 | W+19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 128.8 | 95.1 | 65.2 |
| Feb 21 | Denver | A | L 80–82 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 168.5 | U162 | 116.8 | 119.7 | 68.5 |
| Feb 14 | Kansas City | A | W 104–64 | −13.0 | W+27.0 | 153.5 | O168 | 142.9 | 87.9 | 72.8 |
| Feb 12 | Omaha | A | L 94–98 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 156.5 | O192 | 127.1 | 132.5 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Oral Roberts | H | W 92–75 | −15.5 | W+1.5 | 152.0 | O167 | 122.6 | 99.9 | 75.1 |
| Feb 4 | S Dakota St | A | W 77–62 | +1.0 | W+16.0 | 157.0 | U139 | 123.4 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
Presbyterian
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
7-4
Road
7-9
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −0.8
Covered 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
7-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Winthrop | N | L 71–73 | +6.5 | W+4.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 103.4 | 106.4 | 68.6 |
| Mar 6 | Radford | N | W 91–85 OT | +2.0 | W+8.0 | 146.5 | O176 | 114.0 | 106.4 | 79.8 |
| Feb 28 | Winthrop | A | L 70–74 | +9.0 | W+5.0 | 150.5 | U144 | 99.6 | 105.3 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | High Point | H | L 73–79 | +11.5 | W+5.5 | 151.5 | O152 | 106.8 | 115.6 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | SC Upstate | A | L 74–76 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 141.5 | O150 | 114.9 | 118.0 | 64.4 |
| Feb 19 | Longwood | H | W 72–65 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 140.0 | U137 | 108.3 | 97.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Asheville | A | W 58–57 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 136.5 | U115 | 92.1 | 90.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 12 | Charleston So | A | L 67–84 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 146.5 | O151 | 99.3 | 124.5 | 67.5 |
| Feb 7 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 68–62 | −17.5 | L−11.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 107.4 | 97.9 | 63.3 |
| Jan 31 | Radford | H | L 84–93 2OT | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 152.0 | O177 | 102.0 | 112.9 | 82.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSt ThomasPresbyterian
Efficiency
111.9
105.0
107.0
109.5
69.0
66.2
—
—
Shooting
58.9%
51.0%
63.0%
52.3%
36.0%
31.6%
68.7%
68.5%
33.8%
39.3%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
19.3%
17.0%
15.7%
22.6%
33.1%
26.6%
30.6%
7.7%
10.2%
8.3%
8.4%
Style
46.3%
28.0%
46.5%
52.6%
12.6%
11.5%
56.7%
49.1%
32.7%
23.3%
Roster
2.13
2.53
6'4.9"
6'6.1"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSt Thomas
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Presbyterian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.