CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE
Kansas City
Efficiency #359
2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf
@
Creighton
Efficiency #92
2025-26: 16-18 · 9-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
65.5
win 5%
Projected
84.2
win 95%
No line posted yet.
Model: CREI −18.7 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Creighton 68.5, Kansas City 69.9 → 70.1 possessions
+3.9
Creighton offense vs Kansas City defense
+6.1
Kansas City offense vs Creighton defense
−8.5
Projected total
149.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Creighton offense vs Kansas City defense
+6.1
Kansas City offense vs Creighton defense
+8.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Creighton by 18.7
18.7
Kansas City side ◂▸ Creighton side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.7 against a projected 149.8, and the margin steps add to +18.6 against +18.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Creighton.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and Creighton the slower (68.6, #165). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.8
model
Projected team totals
65.5 / 84.2
Kansas City / Creighton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#54
Kansas City
68.5#165
Creighton
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageCreighton
Where Creighton scores: shooting
Creighton shoots an effective 53.0% (#103); Kansas City allows 56.3% (#348). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageKansas City
Where Kansas City struggles: shooting
Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); Creighton allows 51.1% (#165). Expect about 48.0%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas City, Kansas City's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Kansas City at about 32.6% of its shots from three, Creighton about 46.1%.
GlassKansas City
Kansas City gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
ClashKansas City
Style match: paint scoring
Kansas City scores 46.9% of its points in the paint; Creighton gives up 50.4% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.4% — both habits push the same way.
Kansas City has the ball
OffenseCreighton allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #352
51.1% #165
-4.7 pt/100
18.2% #281
13.7% #341
+1.4 pt/100
26.4% #314
29.5% #132
-2.0 pt/100
29.2% #330
24.8% #5
-1.1 pt/100
66.2% #352
—
-0.5 pt/100
Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.9 pts/100
Creighton has the ball
OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg
53.0% #103
56.3% #348
+5.0 pt/100
16.3% #161
16.4% #192
+0.6 pt/100
26.9% #301
35.9% #353
+0.1 pt/100
28.3% #340
31.4% #94
-0.7 pt/100
76.4% #44
—
+0.3 pt/100
Creighton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersKansas Cityoffense vsCreightondefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas City shoots
34.3
9.1
19.7
37.0
Creighton allows
40.7
6.1
21.8
31.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#322 | 59.1%#197 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.3%#263 | 41.4%#220 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.1%#260 | 33.1%#31 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.4%#360 | 35.1%#256 | 33.7% |
Creightonoffense vsKansas Citydefense
Share of shots by zone
Creighton shoots
31.2
5.3
15.6
47.9
Kansas City allows
43.0
5.0
13.9
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.2%#33 | 63.1%#326 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.6%#322 | 39.7%#185 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#152 | 40.9%#273 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.1%#167 | 37.6%#350 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersKansas City
−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#314
Def reb %
64.1%
#353
Turnover %
18.2%
#281
Forced TO %
16.4%
#192
FT rate
29.2%
#330
FT allowed
31.4%
#94
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Creighton
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#257 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#301
Def reb %
70.5%
#132
Turnover %
16.3%
#161
Forced TO %
13.7%
#341
FT rate
28.3%
#340
FT allowed
24.8%
#5
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Creighton has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#257 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Kansas City2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CJ Evans | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-30 | 30.4 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 1.6 | 70.9% | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Karmello Branch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47.1% | 32.7% | 7.3 | 84.5% | 25.3% | |
| 33 | Jerome Palm | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-27 | 26.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Kasheem Grady II | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-11 | 25.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 80.8% | 24.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Dockery | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-20 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 32.1% | 1.0 | 56.7% | 19.8% | |
| 23 | Addarin Scott | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-5 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.9% | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Jamaria Clark | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 35.9% | 21.3% | 1.7 | 95.0% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Trey Booker-Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 25-1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44.2% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 53.6% | 31.1% | |
| 21 | Babacar Mbengue | F | So | 7'0" | 25-1 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 26.3% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Kernan Bundy | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 27.5% | 23.1% | 2.2 | 77.8% | 21.5% | |
| 13 | D'Andre Harrison | F | Fr | 6'6" | 6-1 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 62.5% | 15.2% | |
| 5 | Cory Curtis Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Jason Hilliard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Max Sims | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Creighton2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jasen Green | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-30 | 28.4 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 58.5% | 35.1% | 1.7 | 66.7% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Nik Graves | G | Sr | 6'2" | 34-22 | 26.7 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 45.4% | 28.4% | 3.9 | 84.4% | 25.9% | |
| 1 | Austin Swartz | G | So | 6'4" | 30-14 | 21.6 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 56.2% | 38.3% | 5.6 | 70.8% | 29.1% | |
| 41 | Isaac Traudt | F | Jr | 6'10" | 34-23 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 56.0% | 37.5% | 4.7 | 85.0% | 18.6% | |
| 2 | Blake Harper | G | So | 6'7" | 34-14 | 18.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 36.4% | 1.6 | 77.6% | 25.2% | |
| 7 | Fedor Zugic | G | Jr | 6'6" | 34-8 | 16.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 48.6% | 30.5% | 2.8 | 82.5% | 20.2% | |
| 9 | Ty Davis | G | So | 6'4" | 33-12 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 35.1% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 78.9% | 11.4% | |
| 10 | Hudson Greer | G | Fr | 6'7" | 22-0 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 56.0% | 40.4% | 2.1 | 62.5% | 21.0% | |
| 17 | Kerem Konan | F | Fr | 6'9" | 30-0 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 65.5% | 18.7% | |
| 23 | Jackson McAndrew | F | So | 6'10" | 4-4 | 20.5 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 41.4% | 28.6% | 5.3 | 50.0% | 23.1% | |
| 12 | Shane Thomas | G | So | 6'3" | 18-0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 46.2% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 37.5% | 19.4% | |
| 53 | Josh Townley-Thomas | F | Jr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 54.6% | |
| 27 | Aleksa Dimitrijevic | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas City2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CJ Evans | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-30 | 30.4 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 1.6 | 70.9% | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Karmello Branch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47.1% | 32.7% | 7.3 | 84.5% | 25.3% | |
| 33 | Jerome Palm | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-27 | 26.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Kasheem Grady II | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-11 | 25.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 80.8% | 24.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Dockery | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-20 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 32.1% | 1.0 | 56.7% | 19.8% | |
| 23 | Addarin Scott | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-5 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.9% | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Jamaria Clark | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 35.9% | 21.3% | 1.7 | 95.0% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Trey Booker-Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 25-1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44.2% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 53.6% | 31.1% | |
| 21 | Babacar Mbengue | F | So | 7'0" | 25-1 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 26.3% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Kernan Bundy | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 27.5% | 23.1% | 2.2 | 77.8% | 21.5% | |
| 13 | D'Andre Harrison | F | Fr | 6'6" | 6-1 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 62.5% | 15.2% | |
| 5 | Cory Curtis Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Jason Hilliard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Max Sims | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Kansas City
Against the spread
Season
5-23
Home
1-10
Road
4-12
Last 10
0-10
avg cover −11.4
Missed the spread 15 straightCovered 0 of 10 as an underdogCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-12
Home
6-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total −2.1
Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Oral Roberts | N | L 62–84 | +8.5 | L−13.5 | 149.0 | U146 | 88.9 | 120.5 | 69.7 |
| Feb 28 | Oral Roberts | H | L 70–94 | +3.5 | L−20.5 | 149.5 | O164 | 95.1 | 127.7 | 73.6 |
| Feb 26 | S Dakota St | H | L 59–73 | +12.0 | L−2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 92.0 | 113.8 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | N Dakota St | A | L 59–95 | +19.5 | L−16.5 | 147.5 | O154 | 76.4 | 123.0 | 77.2 |
| Feb 19 | North Dakota | A | L 70–85 | +9.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 90.7 | 110.2 | 77.1 |
| Feb 14 | St Thomas | H | L 64–104 | +13.0 | L−27.0 | 153.5 | O168 | 87.9 | 142.9 | 72.8 |
| Feb 12 | Oral Roberts | A | L 60–69 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U129 | 92.2 | 106.0 | 65.1 |
| Feb 4 | South Dakota | H | L 75–82 OT | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 93.3 | 102.0 | 80.4 |
| Feb 1 | St Thomas | A | L 64–99 | +18.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | O163 | 86.5 | 133.8 | 74.0 |
| Jan 28 | Denver | H | L 61–69 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 163.0 | U130 | 90.6 | 102.5 | 67.3 |
Creighton
Against the spread
Season
11-23
Home
4-12
Road
5-7
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −1.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-18
Home
9-7
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | West Virginia | N | L 70–87 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 137.0 | O157 | 103.6 | 128.7 | 67.6 |
| Apr 2 | Rutgers | N | W 82–69 | −5.0 | W+8.0 | 151.5 | U151 | 110.3 | 92.8 | 74.4 |
| Mar 12 | Seton Hall | N | L 61–72 | +3.0 | L−8.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.5 | 104.4 | 68.9 |
| Mar 4 | Butler | A | W 76–59 | +2.5 | W+19.5 | 155.5 | U135 | 107.4 | 83.4 | 70.8 |
| Feb 28 | Providence | H | L 76–79 | −4.0 | L−7.0 | 167.0 | U155 | 111.9 | 116.3 | 67.9 |
| Feb 25 | DePaul | H | L 71–72 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 142.5 | O143 | 109.3 | 110.8 | 65.0 |
| Feb 21 | #17St John's | A | L 52–81 | +12.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U133 | 69.6 | 108.4 | 74.7 |
| Feb 18 | #5UConn | A | W 91–84 | +15.5 | W+22.5 | 143.0 | O175 | 120.7 | 111.4 | 75.4 |
| Feb 14 | Villanova | H | L 69–80 | +2.5 | L−8.5 | 146.0 | O149 | 99.5 | 115.3 | 69.4 |
| Feb 11 | DePaul | A | L 71–72 | −1.0 | L−2.0 | 141.0 | O143 | 114.8 | 116.4 | 61.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeKansas CityCreighton
Efficiency
97.7
111.6
114.1
107.2
69.9
68.5
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
53.0%
47.6%
54.7%
28.4%
34.1%
66.2%
76.4%
29.2%
28.3%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
16.3%
16.4%
13.7%
26.4%
26.9%
35.9%
29.5%
10.9%
9.9%
9.4%
10.4%
Style
36.8%
48.2%
46.9%
39.3%
14.5%
15.1%
46.2%
58.4%
29.7%
35.3%
Roster
3.32
2.63
6'5"
6'6.1"
84.5%
79.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputKansas City
Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%
Lost
- Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan
Added
- Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Creighton
Returning minutes: 79.0%Returning production: 76.2%
Lost
- Josh Dix 32.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Owen Freeman 9.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Liam McChesney 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
- Aleksa Dimitrijevic no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.