CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCase Gym, Boston, MA

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Boston U

Efficiency #237

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

74.3

win 31%

Projected

79.9

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: BU −5.6 · total 154.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Boston U 65.5, Northeastern 69.8 → 67.0 possessions

−2.8

Boston U offense vs Northeastern defense

+5.3

Northeastern offense vs Boston U defense

+3.5

Projected total

154.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Boston U offense vs Northeastern defense

+5.3

Northeastern offense vs Boston U defense

−3.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Boston U by 5.6

5.6

Northeastern side ◂▸ Boston U side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.7 against +5.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Boston U.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northeastern is the faster team (69.6, #108 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.2

model

Projected team totals

74.3 / 79.9

Northeastern / Boston U

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#63

Northeastern

65.5#357

Boston U

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBoston U

Where Boston U scores: shooting

Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Northeastern allows 56.4% (#351). Expect about 57.5%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern scores: ball control

Northeastern turns it over on 16.4% of possessions (#162); Boston U forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#353). Expect about 14.2%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Boston U averages 63.5 possessions per 40, Northeastern 69.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassNortheastern

Northeastern gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.0% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Northeastern's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Northeastern at about 38.8% of its shots from three, Boston U about 40.2%.

ClashBoston U

Style clash: 3-point volume

Boston U takes 43.8% of its shots from three; Northeastern runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

53.6% #288

+2.7 pt/100

16.4% #162

13.0% #353

+3.2 pt/100

27.3% #286

28.0% #65

-2.1 pt/100

29.4% #324

30.5% #73

-0.7 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100

Boston U has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

57.5% #11

56.4% #351

+8.8 pt/100

17.8% #255

16.8% #170

-0.7 pt/100

28.0% #269

30.2% #169

-1.1 pt/100

31.4% #270

41.9% #320

+0.3 pt/100

73.4% #157

—

+0.1 pt/100

Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Northeasternoffense vsBoston Udefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Boston U allows

39.1

5.1

15.2

40.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	54.3%#44	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	53.8%#364	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	45.4%#352	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	36.6%#330	33.7%

Boston Uoffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Boston U shoots

37.6

5.1

14.0

43.3

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#73	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	54.8%#1	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.4%#20	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	38.8%#5	35.8%#297	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Boston U

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#269

Def reb %

72.0%

#65

Turnover %

17.8%

#255

Forced TO %

13.0%

#353

FT rate

31.4%

#270

FT allowed

30.5%

#73

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Boston U has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#298 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Boston U2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
20	Michael McNair	G	Jr	6'5"	34-34	36.1	16.9	5.1	2.1	1.3	61.4%	44.4%	7.3	73.8%	25.5%
2	Chance Gladden	G	Fr	6'4"	33-31	33.4	14.4	3.2	4.5	2.7	52.7%	34.7%	3.0	86.7%	27.9%
6	Sam Hughes	F	Fr	6'6"	34-26	30.1	9.0	3.4	1.3	1.1	52.9%	37.2%	5.4	80.6%	19.5%
7	Azmar Abdullah	G	So	6'3"	34-22	29.6	8.3	3.4	1.5	1.3	53.7%	39.4%	4.7	85.0%	18.3%
14	Ben Defty	F	So	7'0"	33-33	29.4	15.1	6.8	1.9	2.3	69.4%	—	0.0	67.1%	28.1%
21	Donte Tisinger Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	28-0	20.1	6.4	2.0	1.8	1.0	57.6%	36.9%	2.3	62.1%	19.9%
30	Ben Roy	G	Sr	6'0"	12-12	26.8	6.6	1.5	2.5	1.1	64.5%	45.8%	2.0	53.3%	14.6%
3	Malcolm Chimezie	F	Sr	6'8"	14-9	21.4	5.2	5.5	1.1	0.9	63.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.7%
32	Quinn Nielsen	F	Jr	6'11"	29-0	8.3	1.3	2.5	0.1	0.4	57.1%	—	0.0	48.1%	12.1%
1	Ethan Okwuosa	G	Sr	6'3"	8-2	19.3	4.4	3.8	1.0	0.5	39.3%	25.0%	2.5	66.7%	19.0%
15	Andrew Bhesania	F	Fr	6'9"	3-0	10.3	7.7	2.3	0.0	0.0	71.4%	44.4%	3.0	100.0%	27.7%
8	Peter Carr	G	So	6'5"	4-0	4.8	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	0.0%	21.3%
5	Kyrone Alexander	G	Jr	6'5"	1-1	11.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	50.0%	21.7%
0	Matai Baptiste	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
41	Otto Landrum	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Spencer Joyner	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Boston U

Against the spread

Season

17-14-2

Home

7-6-1

Road

9-8-1

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-13-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 60–74	−2.0	L−16.0	139.0	U134	98.1	121.0	61.2
Mar 8	NavyAdjEM #104	A	W 73–72	+7.0	W+8.0	136.5	O145	119.1	117.4	61.3
Mar 5	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	W 75–73	−2.0	P0.0	142.5	O148	124.8	121.4	60.1
Feb 28	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 68–65	+3.5	W+6.5	142.0	U133	105.7	101.0	64.3
Feb 25	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	W 78–63	−8.5	W+6.5	142.0	U141	122.5	99.0	63.7
Feb 22	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 67–70	−2.0	L−5.0	141.0	U137	114.0	119.1	58.8
Feb 16	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	W 85–58	+2.0	W+29.0	146.0	U143	148.4	101.3	57.3
Feb 14	BucknellAdjEM #334	H	W 82–69	−5.5	W+7.5	137.0	O151	125.5	105.6	65.3
Feb 11	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 85–68	−3.0	W+14.0	140.0	O153	136.1	108.8	62.5
Feb 7	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 78–69	−5.0	W+4.0	146.0	O147	112.0	99.1	69.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NortheasternBoston U

Efficiency

107.7

111.2

113.7

114.5

69.8

65.5

—

Shooting

52.4%

57.5%

53.6%

56.9%

33.7%

38.8%

69.0%

73.4%

29.4%

31.4%

Ball control & glass

16.4%

17.8%

16.8%

13.0%

27.3%

28.0%

30.2%

28.0%

9.3%

10.8%

9.5%

8.9%

Style

37.8%

43.8%

47.0%

40.7%

15.3%

7.0%

55.7%

53.6%

33.4%

23.5%

Roster

2.26

2.04

6'6.1"

6'5.6"

90.0%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Boston U

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 3	2025-26	Boston U 76 – 75 Northeastern

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.