CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUniversity Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
North Alabama
Efficiency #343
2025-26: 9-21 · 4-15 conf
@
UC Davis
Efficiency #185
2025-26: 19-14 · 12-10 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
67.0
win 16%
Projected
78.6
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCD −11.6 · total 145.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC Davis 69.3, North Alabama 66.6 → 67.6 possessions
−1.5
UC Davis offense vs North Alabama defense
+3.3
North Alabama offense vs UC Davis defense
−4.5
Projected total
145.5
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC Davis offense vs North Alabama defense
+3.3
North Alabama offense vs UC Davis defense
+4.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UC Davis by 11.6
11.6
North Alabama side ◂▸ UC Davis side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.7 against +11.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC Davis.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Davis is the faster team (71.3, #41 of 365) and North Alabama the slower (65.6, #313). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.5
model
Projected team totals
67.0 / 78.6
North Alabama / UC Davis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#312
North Alabama
69.3#99
UC Davis
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUC Davis
Where UC Davis scores: shooting
UC Davis shoots an effective 51.8% (#157); North Alabama allows 55.2% (#337). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNorth Alabama
Where North Alabama struggles: ball control
North Alabama turns it over on 17.5% of possessions (#240); UC Davis forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#30). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
UC Davis averages 71.3 possessions per 40, North Alabama 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (North Alabama) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect North Alabama at about 33.9% of its shots from three, UC Davis about 45.1%.
ClashUC Davis
Style match: 3-point volume
UC Davis takes 43.5% of its shots from three; North Alabama lets opponents take 43.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.1% — both habits push the same way.
GlassUC Davis
UC Davis gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against UC Davis's offense.
North Alabama has the ball
OffenseUC Davis allowsvs D1 avg
48.0% #312
51.7% #197
-2.3 pt/100
17.5% #240
19.8% #30
-2.9 pt/100
31.2% #160
30.5% #182
+0.4 pt/100
37.6% #111
39.1% #290
+0.5 pt/100
68.4% #315
—
-0.3 pt/100
North Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100
UC Davis has the ball
OffenseNorth Alabama allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #157
55.2% #337
+3.3 pt/100
17.9% #266
14.5% #321
+1.0 pt/100
25.2% #334
32.2% #268
-1.7 pt/100
40.5% #53
30.3% #68
-0.0 pt/100
75.3% #74
—
+0.3 pt/100
UC Davis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNorth Alabamaoffense vsUC Davisdefense
Share of shots by zone
North Alabama shoots
46.4
5.7
13.8
34.2
UC Davis allows
44.1
5.0
12.7
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.8%#302 | 58.4%#164 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.0%#244 | 41.2%#213 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.5%#300 | 33.6%#42 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.7%#327 | 33.8%#172 | 33.7% |
UC Davisoffense vsNorth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Davis shoots
35.7
3.8
16.7
43.8
North Alabama allows
40.9
3.9
11.9
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#141 | 60.2%#239 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#236 | 53.3%#362 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#189 | 41.4%#288 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#149 | 35.7%#292 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorth Alabama
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#192 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#160
Def reb %
67.8%
#268
Turnover %
17.5%
#240
Forced TO %
14.5%
#321
FT rate
37.6%
#111
FT allowed
30.3%
#68
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.3
UC Davis
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#334
Def reb %
69.5%
#182
Turnover %
17.9%
#266
Forced TO %
19.8%
#30
FT rate
40.5%
#53
FT allowed
39.1%
#290
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
UC Davis has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#176 of 365) to North Alabama’s −0.4 (#192).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
North Alabama2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donte Bacchus | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 33.4 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 64.0% | 27.1% | |
| 34 | Dallas Howell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 31.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 6.6 | 64.5% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Corneilous Williams | F | Jr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 32.5 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.1% | — | 0.0 | 72.5% | 21.6% | |
| 8 | Kevin de Kovachich | G | So | 6'4" | 30-30 | 31.2 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 47.4% | 33.7% | 3.5 | 79.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Canin Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 22-18 | 30.1 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 29.0% | 4.5 | 74.7% | 27.6% | |
| 3 | Braylon Patton | G | Fr | 6'0" | 26-12 | 17.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 25.7% | 1.3 | 56.8% | 28.4% | |
| 12 | Cortez Graham-Howard | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 61.9% | 21.8% | |
| 25 | DarKaun King | F | So | 6'7" | 17-1 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.7% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Jamal Albritton | C | Sr | 6'9" | 28-1 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.5% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Kedar Bodie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 36.4% | 0.9 | 70.0% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Tank Washington | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 55 | King Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 12-0 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.8% | |
| 21 | Israel Jenrette | C | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mitchell Chaffee | C | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UC Davis2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Connor Sevilla | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 53.4% | 39.9% | 5.4 | 90.3% | 22.2% | |
| 2 | Marcus Wilson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 26.4 | 12.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 48.1% | 32.4% | 3.1 | 78.5% | 29.1% | |
| 20 | Isaiah Chappell | F | So | 6'9" | 33-18 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 52.3% | 35.6% | 4.9 | 60.0% | 20.6% | |
| 0 | Brayden Fagbemi | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-3 | 25.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 46.8% | 27.3% | 1.8 | 64.7% | 19.7% | |
| 7 | Niko Rocak | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 59.7% | 36.1% | 2.6 | 68.1% | 21.8% | |
| 36 | Nils Cooper | G | Jr | 6'6" | 27-23 | 24.7 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 57.2% | 23.8% | 1.6 | 73.7% | 26.2% | |
| 1 | Carl Daughtery Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-9 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 55.1% | 42.0% | 4.7 | 73.3% | 19.4% | |
| 21 | Omer Suljanovic | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 14.7 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 46.6% | 24.6% | 1.8 | 68.3% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Jalen Stokes | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-7 | 13.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 48.9% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 87.8% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Cyril Franklin Jr. | G | So | 6'5" | 19-0 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 33.3% | 13.6% | |
| 8 | Chase Rawlins | G | Fr | 6'5" | 19-0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 54.8% | 42.9% | 0.4 | 77.8% | 17.8% | |
| 14 | Abdullah Amzil | F | Fr | 6'7" | 15-0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 35.7% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 10.3% | |
| 11 | Ylan Esso-Essis | G | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Alabama2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donte Bacchus | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 33.4 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 64.0% | 27.1% | |
| 34 | Dallas Howell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 31.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 46.0% | 30.2% | 6.6 | 64.5% | 19.0% | |
| 2 | Corneilous Williams | F | Jr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 32.5 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.1% | — | 0.0 | 72.5% | 21.6% | |
| 8 | Kevin de Kovachich | G | So | 6'4" | 30-30 | 31.2 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 47.4% | 33.7% | 3.5 | 79.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Canin Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'2" | 22-18 | 30.1 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 29.0% | 4.5 | 74.7% | 27.6% | |
| 3 | Braylon Patton | G | Fr | 6'0" | 26-12 | 17.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 25.7% | 1.3 | 56.8% | 28.4% | |
| 12 | Cortez Graham-Howard | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-0 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46.3% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 61.9% | 21.8% | |
| 25 | DarKaun King | F | So | 6'7" | 17-1 | 14.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.7% | 40.0% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Jamal Albritton | C | Sr | 6'9" | 28-1 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 56.5% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Kedar Bodie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 36.4% | 0.9 | 70.0% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Tank Washington | F | Jr | 6'7" | 9-1 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 55 | King Walker | G | Fr | 6'6" | 12-0 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 10.8% | |
| 21 | Israel Jenrette | C | So | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Mitchell Chaffee | C | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26North Alabama
Against the spread
Season
10-18
Home
3-8
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-16
Home
7-4
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.0
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | FGCU | N | L 58–69 | +7.5 | L−3.5 | 139.5 | U127 | 93.1 | 110.7 | 62.3 |
| Feb 28 | West Georgia | A | L 63–75 | +5.0 | L−7.0 | 146.5 | U138 | 91.9 | 109.4 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Bellarmine | H | W 73–68 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 147.0 | U141 | 124.0 | 115.5 | 58.8 |
| Feb 21 | Lipscomb | A | L 51–73 | +12.0 | L−10.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 81.6 | 116.8 | 62.5 |
| Feb 18 | Queens | H | L 78–85 | +8.5 | W+1.5 | 155.5 | O163 | 115.7 | 126.1 | 67.4 |
| Feb 15 | E Kentucky | H | W 84–78 OT | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 149.5 | O162 | 112.6 | 104.6 | 74.6 |
| Feb 11 | West Georgia | H | L 73–82 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 145.5 | O155 | 113.0 | 126.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 9 | C Arkansas | H | L 65–72 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 145.0 | U137 | 96.4 | 106.8 | 67.4 |
| Feb 7 | Austin Peay | A | L 62–91 | +12.5 | L−16.5 | 145.5 | O153 | 100.4 | 147.3 | 61.8 |
| Feb 4 | C Arkansas | A | L 60–81 | +10.5 | L−10.5 | 147.0 | U141 | 90.3 | 121.9 | 66.4 |
UC Davis
Against the spread
Season
17-13-1
Home
9-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +0.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
7-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −6.0
Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Fullerton | N | L 70–82 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 84.4 | 98.9 | 82.9 |
| Mar 11 | Santa Barbara | N | W 79–73 | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 139.5 | O152 | 107.2 | 99.1 | 73.7 |
| Mar 7 | UC Irvine | A | L 69–79 OT | +8.5 | L−1.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 92.6 | 106.0 | 74.6 |
| Mar 5 | Long Beach St | A | W 76–70 OT | −2.0 | W+4.0 | 150.0 | U146 | 95.7 | 88.2 | 79.4 |
| Feb 26 | Hawai'i | H | L 73–77 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 147.0 | O150 | 106.2 | 112.0 | 68.8 |
| Feb 21 | UC Riverside | A | W 78–73 | −3.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | O151 | 104.9 | 98.2 | 74.4 |
| Feb 19 | Fullerton | A | L 92–93 | +1.0 | P0.0 | 157.0 | O185 | 138.1 | 139.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Long Beach St | H | W 71–54 | −5.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | U125 | 100.8 | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Feb 12 | UC San Diego | A | L 51–68 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 150.5 | U119 | 72.5 | 96.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 7 | Cal Poly | H | W 67–58 | −6.0 | W+3.0 | 169.0 | U125 | 96.6 | 83.6 | 69.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorth AlabamaUC Davis
Efficiency
102.5
107.2
114.6
107.8
66.6
69.3
—
—
Shooting
48.0%
51.8%
49.1%
51.9%
30.7%
34.4%
68.4%
75.3%
37.6%
40.5%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
17.9%
14.5%
19.8%
31.2%
25.2%
32.2%
30.5%
11.0%
9.2%
9.9%
10.3%
Style
33.7%
43.5%
48.1%
37.0%
9.8%
13.1%
40.5%
59.9%
22.2%
34.0%
Roster
2.88
2.51
6'5.7"
6'4.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorth Alabama
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Alabama's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
UC Davis
Returning minutes: 99.7%Returning production: 100.1%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.