CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceReilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

St Bonaventure

Efficiency #138

2025-26: 17-17 · 6-15 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

71.8

win 30%

Projected

77.9

win 70%

No line posted yet.

Model: SBU −6.0 · total 149.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: St Bonaventure 68.2, Youngstown St 68.3 → 68.1 possessions

−0.5

St Bonaventure offense vs Youngstown St defense

+2.0

Youngstown St offense vs St Bonaventure defense

−0.1

Projected total

149.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

St Bonaventure offense vs Youngstown St defense

+2.0

Youngstown St offense vs St Bonaventure defense

+0.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

St Bonaventure by 6.0

6.0

Youngstown St side ◂▸ St Bonaventure side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.6 against a projected 149.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St Bonaventure.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Youngstown St is the faster team (68.6, #169 of 365) and St Bonaventure the slower (67.5, #222). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.7

model

Projected team totals

71.8 / 77.9

Youngstown St / St Bonaventure

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#187

Youngstown St

68.2#194

St Bonaventure

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageYoungstown St

Where Youngstown St scores: shooting

Youngstown St shoots an effective 53.7% (#76); St Bonaventure allows 53.3% (#278). Expect about 53.7%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSt Bonaventure

Style match: 3-point volume

St Bonaventure rarely shoots threes (31.3% of its shots); Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.6% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSt Bonaventure

St Bonaventure's shot-blocking

St Bonaventure ranks #24 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Youngstown St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (St Bonaventure) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Youngstown St at about 48.2% of its shots from three, St Bonaventure about 29.6%.

AdvantageSt Bonaventure

Where St Bonaventure scores: the offensive glass

St Bonaventure rebounds 34.5% of its own misses (#60); Youngstown St lets opponents grab 30.7% of their own misses (#191). Expect about 33.4%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversYoungstown St

Youngstown St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Youngstown St's offense.

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseSt Bonaventure allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

53.3% #278

+3.4 pt/100

18.8% #313

17.1% #146

-1.7 pt/100

30.4% #182

29.8% #150

-0.2 pt/100

31.4% #272

33.9% #147

-0.3 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100

St Bonaventure has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #129

52.3% #228

+1.7 pt/100

16.8% #191

17.8% #106

-0.9 pt/100

34.5% #60

30.7% #191

+1.8 pt/100

30.0% #310

36.0% #210

-0.2 pt/100

74.7% #98

—

+0.2 pt/100

St Bonaventure net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown Stoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

St Bonaventure allows

39.8

5.3

14.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	57.6%#135	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	31.9%#21	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	45.6%#353	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	36.0%#299	33.7%

St Bonaventureoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

St Bonaventure shoots

38.1

8.8

22.0

31.1

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#186	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.6%#71	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#163	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	37.4%#22	35.5%#280	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

St Bonaventure

+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#147 of 365

Off reb %

34.5%

#60

Def reb %

70.2%

#150

Turnover %

16.8%

#191

Forced TO %

17.1%

#146

FT rate

30.0%

#310

FT allowed

33.9%

#147

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.3

St Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#147 of 365) to Youngstown St’s −1.8 (#263).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St Bonaventure2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Darryl Simmons II	G	Jr	5'11"	34-33	35.5	16.4	1.9	2.8	1.4	54.5%	42.5%	6.5	89.9%	26.2%
00	Frank Mitchell	F	Sr	6'8"	34-33	33.6	16.3	10.2	2.8	2.7	55.6%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	30.1%
5	Dasonte Bowen	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	10.9	3.0	4.8	2.1	44.2%	32.7%	1.7	85.2%	22.1%
24	Cayden Charles	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	33.3	12.9	6.6	2.1	1.5	48.6%	32.6%	2.6	79.4%	23.3%
3	Daniel Egbuniwe	F	Sr	6'7"	31-19	23.1	8.2	3.2	1.1	1.1	54.3%	39.7%	3.9	74.0%	21.3%
32	Joe Grahovac	F	So	6'10"	34-14	18.3	4.5	3.0	0.8	0.7	56.9%	36.4%	1.9	87.5%	14.8%
20	Achille Lonati	G	Fr	6'5"	29-1	8.1	2.5	0.8	0.7	0.3	46.4%	25.5%	1.8	61.5%	21.9%
2	Amar'e Marshall	G	Sr	6'4"	11-0	13.2	4.7	1.9	1.4	0.7	56.1%	33.3%	1.6	60.0%	21.8%
1	Ilia Ermakov	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	11.1	2.9	1.1	1.2	1.2	59.1%	42.9%	1.6	0.0%	20.0%
30	Broek Ostrom	G	Sr	6'2"	4-1	3.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	0.5	0.0%	29.7%
15	Jack DeRose	G	Jr	6'0"	3-0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	75.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	39.7%
21	Xander Wedlow	C	So	6'10"	2-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
7	Brayden Jackson	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	John Ikpotokin	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

St Bonaventure

Against the spread

Season

12-20-1

Home

3-12

Road

6-5

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −0.6

Covered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-13-1

Home

10-4-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	L 63–68	+5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	95.7	103.3	65.8
Mar 12	George MasonAdjEM #83	N	W 63–57	+2.5	W+8.5	142.5	U120	103.5	93.7	60.9
Mar 11	La SalleAdjEM #256	N	W 99–80	−5.5	W+13.5	145.5	O179	138.9	112.3	71.3
Mar 7	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	L 63–68	−5.0	L−10.0	142.0	U131	98.2	106.0	64.2
Mar 4	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 82–91 OT	+7.5	L−1.5	157.0	O173	103.7	115.1	79.1
Feb 28	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	L 58–71	+3.5	L−9.5	147.0	U129	97.9	119.8	59.3
Feb 26	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	H	W 94–76	−3.0	W+15.0	143.0	O170	134.7	108.9	69.8
Feb 21	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	L 94–99	+1.0	L−4.0	148.5	O193	128.0	134.8	73.4
Feb 18	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 65–71	−5.0	L−11.0	147.5	U136	93.5	102.1	69.5
Feb 14	DuquesneAdjEM #131	H	L 73–78	−2.0	L−7.0	152.5	U151	105.8	113.0	69.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Youngstown StSt Bonaventure

Efficiency

106.8

111.7

108.3

110.0

68.3

68.2

—

Shooting

53.7%

52.4%

56.6%

50.8%

33.8%

37.4%

73.3%

74.7%

31.4%

30.0%

Ball control & glass

18.8%

16.8%

17.8%

17.1%

30.4%

34.5%

30.7%

29.8%

10.8%

9.4%

9.7%

8.0%

Style

49.4%

31.3%

42.0%

46.6%

14.0%

17.3%

53.8%

55.2%

36.9%

21.8%

Roster

3.58

3.46

6'4.3"

6'4.2"

93.2%

94.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

St Bonaventure

Returning minutes: 94.2%Returning production: 92.5%

Lost

Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Youngstown St 80 – 84 St Bonaventure

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.