CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA

NC Central

Efficiency #346

2025-26: 14-18 · 10-7 conf

Georgia

Efficiency #32

2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

68.3

win 3%

Projected

89.9

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: UGA −21.6 · total 158.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia 71.5, NC Central 67.3 → 70.5 possessions

+4.7

Georgia offense vs NC Central defense

+11.4

NC Central offense vs Georgia defense

−6.2

Projected total

158.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Georgia offense vs NC Central defense

+11.4

NC Central offense vs Georgia defense

+6.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Georgia by 21.6

21.6

NC Central side ◂▸ Georgia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +21.7 against +21.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and NC Central the slower (66.6, #261). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

158.1

model

Projected team totals

68.3 / 89.9

NC Central / Georgia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.3#266

NC Central

71.5#10

Georgia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseGeorgia

Georgia's shot-blocking

Georgia ranks #10 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.4% of NC Central's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageGeorgia

Where Georgia scores: shooting

Georgia shoots an effective 54.2% (#61); NC Central allows 54.5% (#317). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassGeorgia

Georgia owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 37.9% is worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions for Georgia's offense.

AdvantageNC Central

Where NC Central struggles: shooting

NC Central shoots an effective 47.5% (#328); Georgia allows 50.6% (#134). Expect about 48.7%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Georgia averages 73.6 possessions per 40, NC Central 66.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversNC Central

NC Central turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against NC Central's offense.

NC Central has the ball

OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #328

50.6% #134

-3.6 pt/100

18.1% #278

18.4% #81

-2.2 pt/100

30.0% #201

34.9% #336

+1.1 pt/100

39.3% #72

30.2% #65

-0.1 pt/100

73.8% #139

—

+0.1 pt/100

NC Central net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100

Georgia has the ball

OffenseNC Central allowsvs D1 avg

54.2% #61

54.5% #317

+4.8 pt/100

14.3% #31

19.9% #26

-0.7 pt/100

34.9% #49

39.4% #364

+4.6 pt/100

36.9% #131

36.9% #233

+0.3 pt/100

75.0% #81

—

+0.2 pt/100

Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NC Centraloffense vsGeorgiadefense

Share of shots by zone

NC Central shoots

44.2

3.4

18.2

34.3

Georgia allows

40.6

4.8

16.8

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#316	56.7%#106	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#225	43.8%#265	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#325	38.7%#186	38.0%
Three	32.6%#247	33.6%#165	33.7%

Georgiaoffense vsNC Centraldefense

Share of shots by zone

Georgia shoots

41.0

4.6

10.7

43.7

NC Central allows

40.6

3.0

16.6

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.2%#68	59.8%#216	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#51	38.1%#139	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.1%#218	38.4%#171	38.0%
Three	33.8%#185	36.4%#321	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NC Central

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#201

Def reb %

60.6%

#364

Turnover %

18.1%

#278

Forced TO %

19.9%

#26

FT rate

39.3%

#72

FT allowed

36.9%

#233

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−2.8

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Georgia

+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365

Off reb %

34.9%

#49

Def reb %

65.1%

#336

Turnover %

14.3%

#31

Forced TO %

18.4%

#81

FT rate

36.9%

#131

FT allowed

30.2%

#65

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding−1.4

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+1.1

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.7 (#28 of 365) to NC Central’s −1.0 (#233).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Georgia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Freddie Dilione Vat Penn State	G	Sr	6'5"	32-15	27.5	14.0	3.2	2.2	1.5	53.0%	31.8%	4.1	81.7%	30.3%
0	Blue Cain	G	Sr	6'5"	33-33	27.8	13.1	5.1	2.6	1.1	53.6%	30.0%	4.5	90.7%	24.2%
4	Marcus Millender	G	Sr	5'11"	33-8	26.2	12.0	2.8	4.1	1.8	55.6%	38.6%	4.8	84.0%	24.6%
6	Kanon Catchings	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	23.3	11.6	4.8	1.2	1.2	53.2%	37.6%	5.7	65.1%	27.7%
9	James Scottat Ole Miss	F	Sr	6'11"	35-27	17.9	3.9	4.6	0.6	0.6	72.9%	—	0.0	50.0%	11.0%
11	Brady Dunlapat Saint Louis	F	Sr	6'8"	34-2	16.9	7.0	2.0	0.9	0.9	62.0%	45.1%	3.3	81.4%	20.4%
1	Kareem Stagg	F	So	6'8"	33-9	12.8	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.8	57.5%	30.0%	1.5	75.6%	19.8%
34	Andrew Osasuyiat St Bonaventure	F	So	6'10"	33-2	11.9	3.7	2.8	0.2	0.6	65.1%	—	0.0	46.9%	17.9%
30	Brandon Klatsky	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.6	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	80.0%	66.7%	0.4	—	23.0%
12	Markel Jennings	G	Sr	5'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	—	—	0.0	—	48.4%
16	David Ugonna Ike	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Donovan Williams Jr.	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Hakeem Weems	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
55	Kemauri Millender	G	Sr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Mading Kuany	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Freddie Dilione V (from Penn State), Brady Dunlap (from Saint Louis), Andrew Osasuyi (from St Bonaventure), James Scott (from Ole Miss)

NC Central2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Gage Lattimore	G	So	6'2"	31-31	36.8	16.6	4.3	2.4	1.9	49.6%	39.2%	6.7	86.7%	26.7%
2	Dionte Johnson	G	Sr	6'0"	32-32	30.8	8.6	4.0	5.1	2.4	48.2%	32.9%	2.7	76.8%	20.3%
21	Kelechi Okworogwo	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	25.6	8.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	54.0%	20.0%	0.6	69.1%	18.7%
5	Tekao Carpenter	G	Sr	6'3"	30-22	25.9	6.8	2.0	1.4	1.3	46.9%	31.6%	3.8	75.5%	18.4%
1	Kyric Davis	G	Sr	6'5"	31-17	22.5	8.1	3.5	0.9	1.6	50.8%	11.8%	0.5	72.5%	23.9%
8	Jae Slack	F	Sr	6'6"	26-10	23.9	10.3	3.3	0.8	1.2	48.9%	35.7%	2.7	75.0%	25.8%
7	Khouri Carvey	F	Sr	6'9"	22-21	26.2	13.6	6.3	1.5	1.8	58.1%	25.0%	0.5	55.3%	30.0%
10	Ryan Archey	G	So	6'0"	25-0	8.0	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.9	42.5%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	32.3%
22	Ramondo Battle II	F	Sr	6'8"	19-5	9.3	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.3	32.8%	18.2%	1.7	52.9%	23.4%
13	Jonathan Dunn	F	Jr	6'7"	11-9	13.8	4.3	1.7	0.5	0.6	54.5%	0.0%	0.2	55.0%	18.1%
12	Justin Edwards	G	Sr	5'9"	18-0	6.1	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5	28.1%	20.0%	0.3	80.0%	14.0%
3	Khalil Arnold	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	6.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	47.2%	38.5%	1.3	—	16.5%
9	Gbenga Olubi	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.1	31.8%	33.3%	0.2	—	13.2%
4	Camren Daniels	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	31.8%	25.0%	0.4	100.0%	25.4%
0	Caleb Ellison	G	So	6'0"	2-0	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NC Central

Against the spread

Season

15-13

Home

3-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −4.2

Covered 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-14-1

Home

4-5

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.5

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 63–70	+11.5	W+4.5	143.5	U133	101.2	112.4	62.3
Mar 13	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	W 59–53	−4.0	W+2.0	131.0	U112	104.5	93.9	56.4
Mar 12	MD EasternAdjEM #345	N	W 83–76 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	132.0	O159	119.6	109.5	69.4
Mar 5	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	L 64–80	−7.5	L−23.5	141.5	O144	91.7	114.6	69.8
Mar 2	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 77–73	+2.5	W+6.5	133.5	O150	112.8	106.9	68.3
Feb 28	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 74–60	−2.5	W+11.5	135.5	U134	120.3	97.5	61.5
Feb 21	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 67–100	+12.5	L−20.5	143.0	O167	94.0	140.3	71.3
Feb 18	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	L 72–85	−3.0	L−16.0	137.5	O157	107.9	127.4	66.7
Feb 16	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	W 80–76	−5.5	L−1.5	148.0	O156	109.7	104.3	72.9
Feb 14	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	L 56–58	−11.0	L−13.0	145.5	U114	89.6	92.8	62.5

Georgia

Against the spread

Season

15-17-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

11-7

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#9Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	L 77–102	−1.5	L−26.5	167.5	O179	96.5	127.8	79.8
Mar 12	Ole MissAdjEM #82	N	L 72–76	−5.5	L−9.5	156.5	U148	97.0	102.4	74.2
Mar 7	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	A	W 102–96	−5.0	W+1.0	164.5	O198	128.7	121.1	79.3
Mar 3	#16AlabamaAdjEM #18	H	W 98–88	+1.5	W+11.5	180.0	O186	131.1	117.7	74.7
Feb 28	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	H	W 87–68	−12.5	W+6.5	159.0	U155	136.9	107.0	63.5
Feb 25	#25VanderbiltAdjEM #12	A	L 80–88	+7.5	L−0.5	163.0	O168	121.1	133.2	66.1
Feb 21	TexasAdjEM #38	H	W 91–80	−3.0	W+8.0	163.5	O171	146.7	129.0	62.0
Feb 17	KentuckyAdjEM #27	A	W 86–78	+6.5	W+14.5	160.5	O164	127.9	116.0	67.3
Feb 14	OklahomaAdjEM #47	A	L 78–94	+2.0	L−14.0	165.0	O172	124.7	150.3	62.5
Feb 11	#14FloridaAdjEM #5	H	L 66–86	+9.0	L−11.0	165.0	U152	87.2	113.6	75.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NC CentralGeorgia

Efficiency

103.2

117.4

115.7

105.0

67.3

71.5

—

Shooting

47.5%

54.2%

46.7%

57.0%

32.6%

33.8%

73.8%

75.0%

39.3%

36.9%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

14.3%

19.9%

18.4%

30.0%

34.9%

39.4%

34.9%

9.4%

12.4%

9.8%

Style

33.9%

44.3%

41.7%

43.2%

17.3%

22.1%

52.7%

48.1%

26.5%

41.6%

Roster

3.53

3.56

6'3.9"

6'6.2"

—

44.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NC Central

Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Georgia

Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%

Lost

Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.