Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans basketball final score
Mon, Nov 2 · 10:30 PM ET · Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Non-conferenceB1G+Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Milwaukee
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
Efficiency #262
@
21USC
2025-26: 18-14 · 7-14 conf
Efficiency #98
Final
6395
Final score
Projected 68.5 – 86.5
MILW win 6%USC win 94%
MarketClose
Spread
USC −26.5
open USC −25.0
Total
161.5
open 155.0
Our line
USC −18.0
as of Mon, Nov 2 · 10:21 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
USCrated 10.5 above average
+10.5
Milwaukeerated 4.0 below average
+4.0
Home court
+3.5
Our line
USC −18.0
◂ Milwaukee sideUSC side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward USC. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, USC is the faster team (71.0, #53 of 365) and Milwaukee the slower (69.1, #143). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
161.5
Market close · open 155.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.5#169
Milwaukee
70.5#25
USC
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
USC −18.0
Four factors 2.5Not in these stats 15.5
From the four factors
USC has the ball+2.8
Milwaukee has the ball+0.3
USC has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.4% #225 · MILW allows 55.5% #340+1.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 44.2% #8 · MILW allows 35.9% #208 · FT 72.6% #182+0.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.4% #113 · MILW allows 29.2% #121+0.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.4% #228 · MILW forces 15.8% #228 · ~12 turnovers+0.3
Milwaukee has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.9% #242 · USC allows 49.7% #89−1.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.0% #88 · USC allows 32.2% #269+1.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.2% #81 · USC forces 16.3% #198 · ~11 turnovers+1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 32.1% #256 · USC allows 33.4% #139 · FT 68.7% #307−0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMilwaukeeoffense vs#21USCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Milwaukee shoots
39.4
5.6
17.0
38.1
USC allows
37.0
4.7
18.0
40.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.2%#295 | 56.0%#87 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.2%#140 | 44.6%#283 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.7%#124 | 44.3%#342 | 38.1% |
| Three | 32.3%#266 | 30.9%#31 | 33.7% |
#21USCoffense vsMilwaukeedefense
Share of shots by zone
USC shoots
38.6
6.4
21.2
33.8
Milwaukee allows
41.9
5.8
12.1
40.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#128 | 61.6%#287 | 58.5% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.6%#184 | 46.9%#330 | 39.4% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.3%#179 | 38.7%#189 | 38.1% |
| Three | 31.7%#299 | 36.5%#329 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMilwaukee
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365
Off reb %
33.0%
#88
Def reb %
70.8%
#121
Turnover %
15.2%
#81
Forced TO %
15.8%
#228
FT rate
32.1%
#256
FT allowed
35.9%
#208
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed−0.2
#21USC
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#82 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#113
Def reb %
67.8%
#269
Turnover %
17.4%
#228
Forced TO %
16.3%
#198
FT rate
44.2%
#8
FT allowed
33.4%
#139
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.4
Foul shots allowed+0.5
USC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#82 of 365) to Milwaukee’s +0.9 (#146).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Milwaukee2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 31.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | 72.2% | 30.2% | |
| 1 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-2 | 25.7 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 33.9% | 14.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 30.0% | |
| 35 | F | So | 6'10" | 3-2 | 22.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 0.0% | 20.5% | |
| 24 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 43.2% | 31.3% | 5.3 | 100.0% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 18.7 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 60.5% | 50.0% | 4.7 | 80.0% | 22.0% | |
| 3 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 26.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 15.9% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 15.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 86.4% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 16.0% | |
| 8 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 14.3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 17.3% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 63.2% | 40.0% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 31.1% | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 17.5 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 70.8% | 42.9% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 23.8% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 45.5% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 28.5% | |
| 22 | G | Sr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 20.3% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameMilwaukee
Against the spread
Season
11-19-1
Home
6-8
Road
5-11-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −4.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-17
Home
6-8
Road
8-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.8
Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 63–84 | +1.0 | L−20.0 | 151.5 | U147 | 93.7 | 124.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 25 | Youngstown St | H | W 78–65 | +1.0 | W+14.0 | 148.5 | U143 | 113.9 | 94.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 22 | Oakland | A | L 70–81 | +6.5 | L−4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 107.1 | 123.9 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Detroit Mercy | A | L 86–91 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 153.0 | O177 | 122.5 | 129.7 | 70.2 |
| Feb 15 | Green Bay | H | W 75–72 | −2.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | O147 | 121.8 | 117.0 | 61.6 |
| Feb 10 | IU Indy | A | W 92–88 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 158.0 | O180 | 118.7 | 113.6 | 77.5 |
| Feb 7 | N Kentucky | A | L 62–67 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 156.5 | U129 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 62.6 |
| Feb 4 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 63–76 | −6.0 | L−19.0 | 159.0 | U139 | 98.6 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 1 | Cleveland St | H | L 88–90 | −10.0 | L−12.0 | 160.5 | O178 | 126.5 | 129.3 | 69.6 |
| Jan 30 | Wright St | H | L 69–76 | +2.5 | L−4.5 | 151.5 | U145 | 94.8 | 104.4 | 72.8 |
#21USC
Against the spread
Season
13-18
Home
6-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.8
Missed the spread 7 straightCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-13-1
Home
10-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.2
Over 4 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Washington | N | L 79–83 OT | +3.5 | L−0.5 | 153.0 | O162 | 97.8 | 102.7 | 80.8 |
| Mar 7 | UCLA | H | L 68–89 | +5.0 | L−16.0 | 151.0 | O157 | 108.7 | 142.2 | 62.6 |
| Mar 4 | Washington | A | L 72–91 | +5.5 | L−13.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 94.7 | 119.7 | 76.0 |
| Feb 28 | #12Nebraska | H | L 67–82 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 148.5 | O149 | 97.3 | 119.1 | 68.8 |
| Feb 24 | UCLA | A | L 62–81 | +7.0 | L−12.0 | 150.5 | U143 | 94.5 | 123.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | Oregon | H | L 70–71 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 149.5 | U141 | 99.8 | 101.3 | 70.1 |
| Feb 18 | #10Illinois | H | L 65–101 | +9.0 | L−27.0 | 152.5 | O166 | 91.0 | 141.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 11 | Ohio State | A | L 82–89 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 152.5 | O171 | 111.9 | 121.5 | 73.3 |
| Feb 8 | Penn State | A | W 77–75 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 106.4 | 103.7 | 72.3 |
| Feb 3 | Indiana | H | W 81–75 | +1.5 | W+7.5 | 152.5 | O156 | 111.5 | 103.2 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMilwaukee#21USC
Efficiency
106.8
109.4
111.9
105.2
68.5
70.5
Shooting
49.9%
50.4%
50.8%
51.8%
32.3%
31.7%
68.7%
72.6%
32.1%
44.2%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
17.4%
15.8%
16.3%
33.0%
32.4%
29.2%
32.2%
8.4%
10.2%
9.5%
8.3%
Style
38.1%
34.1%
44.2%
42.7%
16.7%
12.8%
48.1%
56.5%
35.0%
30.8%
Roster
3.93
3.39
6'4.7"
6'6.5"
28.7%
24.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMilwaukee
Returning minutes: 28.7%Returning production: 29.8%
Lost
- Aaron Franklin 25.2 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Stevie Elam 20.5 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to Miami OH
- Amar Augillard 20.2 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josh Dixon 18.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to GA Southern
- Esyah Pippa-White 18.5 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Hou Christian
- Faizon Fields 13.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tre Norman from Marquette · 7.6 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Al Amadou from Saint Joseph's · 1.9 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Jake Hansen from Oklahoma · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Dylan Omweno no D1 minutes last season
- John Lovelace Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Nate Malosa no D1 minutes last season
Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#21USC
Returning minutes: 24.0%Returning production: 25.0%
Lost
- Ezra Ausar 29.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chad Baker-Mazara 24.1 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kam Woods 19.6 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Marsh 16.0 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Temple
- Jerry Easter II 15.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Oregon
- Terrance Williams II 12.9 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jalen Cox from Colgate · 32.1 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Jadis Jones from Lindenwood · 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- Joshua Hughes from Evansville · 27.6 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
- KJ Lewis from Georgetown · 24.7 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
- Isaac Bruns from South Dakota · 19.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- Aaron Hunkin-Claytor from Hawai'i · 14.5 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -26.5-110 | 156.5→160.5o-115 u-105 | — | +3500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5-118 | 157.5→160.5o-110 u-110 | — | +4000 |
| BetMGM | -25.5→-26.5-110 | 158.5→160.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5-117 | 158.5→160.5o-115 u-108 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5→-26.5-110 | 156→160.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -26→-26.5-110 | 155.5→161o-110 u-110 | — | +2800 |
| BetOnline | -23.5→-26.5-105 | 155.5→160.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -25.5→-26.5-115 | 157.5→161o-120 u+100 | — | +2500 |
| theScore Bet | -25.5→-26.5-110 | 156.5→160.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -26.5-115 | 158.5→160.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 160.5o-108 u+104 | -4900 | +3233 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| Novig | — | 156.5→— | — | +3900 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.