CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE

Le Moyne

Efficiency #270

2025-26: 15-17 · 10-9 conf

Nebraska

Efficiency #17

2025-26: 28-7 · 15-6 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

63.3

win 5%

Projected

82.0

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: NEB −18.7 · total 145.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Nebraska 67.7, Le Moyne 69.6 → 69.1 possessions

+1.6

Nebraska offense vs Le Moyne defense

+5.1

Le Moyne offense vs Nebraska defense

−9.6

Projected total

145.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Nebraska offense vs Le Moyne defense

+5.1

Le Moyne offense vs Nebraska defense

+9.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Nebraska by 18.7

18.7

Le Moyne side ◂▸ Nebraska side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nebraska.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Le Moyne is the faster team (69.2, #133 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (66.8, #252). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.3

model

Projected team totals

63.3 / 82.0

Le Moyne / Nebraska

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.6#76

Le Moyne

67.7#228

Nebraska

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLe Moyne

Where Le Moyne struggles: ball control

Le Moyne turns it over on 19.1% of possessions (#327); Nebraska forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#54). Expect about 19.5%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassLe Moyne

Le Moyne gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.3% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against Le Moyne's offense.

AdvantageNebraska

Where Nebraska scores: ball control

Nebraska turns it over on 14.4% of possessions (#40); Le Moyne forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#289). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Nebraska's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Le Moyne at about 47.4% of its shots from three, Nebraska about 48.9%.

GlassNebraska

Nebraska gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Nebraska's offense.

ClashNebraska

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Nebraska (#21 in 2-point shooting) against Le Moyne (#13 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.5%. Historically Nebraska's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

Le Moyne has the ball

OffenseNebraska allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #118

48.1% #40

-1.2 pt/100

19.1% #327

18.9% #54

-3.3 pt/100

25.2% #337

27.4% #47

-3.1 pt/100

39.5% #68

25.1% #7

-0.5 pt/100

71.8% #214

—

-0.1 pt/100

Le Moyne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100

Nebraska has the ball

OffenseLe Moyne allowsvs D1 avg

55.5% #28

49.3% #75

+2.1 pt/100

14.4% #40

15.0% #289

+3.0 pt/100

26.7% #306

29.1% #107

-2.0 pt/100

26.2% #356

32.7% #121

-0.7 pt/100

75.5% #64

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nebraska net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Le Moyneoffense vsNebraskadefense

Share of shots by zone

Le Moyne shoots

42.6

4.8

12.5

40.1

Nebraska allows

23.8

5.7

19.3

51.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#149	64.2%#342	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.0%#269	40.6%#202	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.8%#194	35.0%#76	38.0%
Three	34.3%#152	30.5%#19	33.7%

Nebraskaoffense vsLe Moynedefense

Share of shots by zone

Nebraska shoots

31.8

5.5

11.3

51.3

Le Moyne allows

36.2

7.4

16.5

39.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.2%#4	56.5%#100	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.6%#253	37.7%#131	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#288	27.3%#1	38.0%
Three	35.5%#91	36.0%#303	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Le Moyne

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#276 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#337

Def reb %

70.9%

#107

Turnover %

19.1%

#327

Forced TO %

15.0%

#289

FT rate

39.5%

#68

FT allowed

32.7%

#121

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.7

Nebraska

+3.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#49 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#306

Def reb %

72.6%

#47

Turnover %

14.4%

#40

Forced TO %

18.9%

#54

FT rate

26.2%

#356

FT allowed

25.1%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.5

Foul shots drawn−2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.6

Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.3 (#49 of 365) to Le Moyne’s −2.2 (#276).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Le Moyne2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Trent Mosquera	G	Jr	6'5"	32-30	31.8	13.5	5.8	2.3	2.0	51.1%	35.2%	6.8	73.6%	26.4%
13	Deng Garang	G	So	6'6"	32-32	30.1	10.8	5.2	1.0	1.5	53.2%	33.9%	4.0	71.4%	21.4%
2	Jakai Sanders	G	So	6'3"	29-21	29.9	10.7	3.4	4.3	2.4	46.0%	36.5%	2.6	74.5%	24.0%
4	Shilo Jackson	F	Sr	6'9"	27-26	30.8	15.8	8.0	2.1	2.5	63.3%	50.0%	0.1	72.7%	27.0%
1	Tennessee Rainwater	G	Jr	6'6"	32-7	24.5	9.8	4.3	1.7	1.8	63.9%	50.0%	1.3	67.2%	21.7%
10	Jakob Blakley	G	So	6'0"	32-28	16.1	4.2	1.2	0.6	0.4	45.9%	31.4%	2.7	87.5%	16.5%
12	Samuel Hincapie	G	Jr	6'5"	30-0	15.6	4.9	2.1	0.7	0.6	48.9%	26.9%	1.7	57.1%	20.6%
3	Eli Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	31-8	14.0	2.6	1.2	1.6	1.1	42.0%	28.9%	1.5	78.3%	15.7%
32	Isaac Nyakundi	F	So	6'9"	24-6	9.8	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.5	51.1%	25.0%	0.5	54.5%	14.9%
5	Trevor Roe	F	So	6'9"	17-0	7.3	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.2	52.3%	32.3%	1.8	100.0%	23.0%
11	Josiah Lee	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.3	1.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	58.3%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	14.5%
0	Ametri Moss	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	27.5	7.5	5.0	4.5	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	1.5	100.0%	18.5%
33	Sam Donnelly	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	2.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	22.6%
22	Kaelin Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	3.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	—	27.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nebraska2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Pryce Sandfort	F	Jr	6'7"	35-35	33.6	18.1	4.9	2.0	0.7	62.1%	41.6%	8.9	85.5%	26.5%
10	Jamarques Lawrence	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	27.9	9.8	2.4	3.8	2.0	52.2%	35.5%	4.4	75.6%	23.2%
9	Berke Buyuktuncel	F	Jr	6'10"	33-33	24.3	6.5	5.6	1.9	1.2	50.6%	24.1%	1.6	61.2%	18.3%
5	Braden Frager	F	Fr	6'7"	33-2	23.7	11.8	3.8	1.0	1.0	59.1%	35.2%	4.9	80.5%	26.8%
31	Cale Jacobsen	G	Jr	6'4"	35-1	19.7	4.6	2.9	1.3	0.6	58.5%	36.6%	1.2	59.5%	13.9%
15	Jared Garcia	F	Sr	6'8"	28-0	8.3	3.0	2.1	0.3	0.7	39.2%	24.4%	1.5	77.8%	28.7%
0	Connor Essegian	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	13.9	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	25.8%	4.4	50.0%	28.9%
2	Kendall Blue	G	Sr	6'6"	19-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.4	42.3%	37.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.6%
33	Leo Curtis	F	Fr	7'1"	15-0	4.2	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.3	58.8%	0.0%	0.2	87.5%	24.0%
7	Justin Bolis	F	So	6'8"	14-0	1.8	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	13.9%
13	Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	Sr	6'11"	1-0	11.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	116.7%	100.0%	1.0	0.0%	28.6%
35	Henry Burt	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Quentin Rhymes	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Will Cooper	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Le Moyne2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Trent Mosquera	G	Jr	6'5"	32-30	31.8	13.5	5.8	2.3	2.0	51.1%	35.2%	6.8	73.6%	26.4%
13	Deng Garang	G	So	6'6"	32-32	30.1	10.8	5.2	1.0	1.5	53.2%	33.9%	4.0	71.4%	21.4%
2	Jakai Sanders	G	So	6'3"	29-21	29.9	10.7	3.4	4.3	2.4	46.0%	36.5%	2.6	74.5%	24.0%
4	Shilo Jackson	F	Sr	6'9"	27-26	30.8	15.8	8.0	2.1	2.5	63.3%	50.0%	0.1	72.7%	27.0%
1	Tennessee Rainwater	G	Jr	6'6"	32-7	24.5	9.8	4.3	1.7	1.8	63.9%	50.0%	1.3	67.2%	21.7%
10	Jakob Blakley	G	So	6'0"	32-28	16.1	4.2	1.2	0.6	0.4	45.9%	31.4%	2.7	87.5%	16.5%
12	Samuel Hincapie	G	Jr	6'5"	30-0	15.6	4.9	2.1	0.7	0.6	48.9%	26.9%	1.7	57.1%	20.6%
3	Eli Greenberg	G	Fr	6'4"	31-8	14.0	2.6	1.2	1.6	1.1	42.0%	28.9%	1.5	78.3%	15.7%
32	Isaac Nyakundi	F	So	6'9"	24-6	9.8	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.5	51.1%	25.0%	0.5	54.5%	14.9%
5	Trevor Roe	F	So	6'9"	17-0	7.3	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.2	52.3%	32.3%	1.8	100.0%	23.0%
11	Josiah Lee	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.3	1.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	58.3%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	14.5%
0	Ametri Moss	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	27.5	7.5	5.0	4.5	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	1.5	100.0%	18.5%
33	Sam Donnelly	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	2.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	22.6%
22	Kaelin Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	3.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	25.0%	—	0.0	—	27.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Le Moyne

Against the spread

Season

16-14-1

Home

5-7

Road

10-6-1

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −3.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-18

Home

5-7

Road

6-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	L 71–81	−4.5	L−14.5	140.0	O152	100.6	114.8	70.5
Feb 28	New HavenAdjEM #326	A	L 59–66	−2.0	L−9.0	136.0	U125	86.5	96.8	68.2
Feb 26	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 76–59	−4.5	W+12.5	139.5	U135	118.7	92.2	64.0
Feb 21	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	L 68–77	−2.0	L−11.0	137.0	O145	96.6	109.4	70.4
Feb 19	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 77–78	+3.5	W+2.5	146.5	O155	108.8	110.2	70.8
Feb 14	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 81–63	−7.0	W+11.0	146.0	U144	117.6	91.5	68.9
Feb 12	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 58–57	−2.5	L−1.5	138.5	U115	84.2	82.7	68.9
Feb 7	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 86–84	−8.5	L−6.5	154.0	O170	112.0	109.4	76.8
Feb 5	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 78–79	+1.0	P0.0	140.0	O157	113.9	115.3	68.5
Jan 31	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	L 54–65	−4.5	L−15.5	140.5	U119	75.7	91.1	71.4

Nebraska

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-23

Home

4-14

Road

4-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 26	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 71–77	−1.5	L−7.5	131.0	O148	117.4	127.4	60.5
Mar 21	#5VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	W 74–72	+2.0	W+4.0	147.5	U146	115.8	112.7	63.9
Mar 19	#13TroyAdjEM #136	N	W 76–47	−13.0	W+16.0	139.5	U123	125.1	77.4	60.8
Mar 13	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 58–74	+4.5	L−11.5	146.0	U132	95.9	122.4	60.5
Mar 8	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–75 OT	−5.0	W+4.0	136.5	O159	112.8	100.7	74.5
Mar 3	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 52–72	−1.0	L−21.0	144.5	U124	85.7	118.7	60.6
Feb 28	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 82–67	−5.0	W+10.0	148.5	O149	119.1	97.3	68.8
Feb 25	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 74–61	−16.5	L−3.5	141.0	U135	116.4	95.9	63.6
Feb 21	Penn StateAdjEM #194	H	W 87–64	−17.5	W+5.5	147.5	O151	125.4	92.2	69.4
Feb 17	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 52–57	+1.0	L−4.0	139.5	U109	86.5	94.8	60.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Le MoyneNebraska

Efficiency

104.7

114.2

110.2

98.3

69.6

67.7

—

Shooting

52.7%

55.5%

53.5%

58.0%

34.3%

35.5%

71.8%

75.5%

39.5%

26.2%

Ball control & glass

19.1%

14.4%

15.0%

18.9%

25.2%

26.7%

29.1%

27.4%

11.1%

7.6%

9.5%

9.1%

Style

40.8%

51.1%

42.6%

40.1%

14.2%

8.1%

56.5%

65.9%

31.9%

26.7%

Roster

2.56

2.93

6'5.2"

6'6.3"

—

69.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Le Moyne

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Le Moyne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Nebraska

Returning minutes: 69.8%Returning production: 67.0%

Lost

Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Quentin Rhymes no D1 minutes last season
Henry Burt no D1 minutes last season
Will Cooper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.