CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
E Illinois
Efficiency #317
2025-26: 13-20 · 9-13 conf
@
Indiana
Efficiency #45
2025-26: 18-14 · 9-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
62.7
win 8%
Projected
79.3
win 92%
No line posted yet.
Model: IU −16.6 · total 142.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Indiana 67.6, E Illinois 67.2 → 66.4 possessions
−4.1
Indiana offense vs E Illinois defense
+5.3
E Illinois offense vs Indiana defense
−7.5
Projected total
142.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Indiana offense vs E Illinois defense
+5.3
E Illinois offense vs Indiana defense
+7.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Indiana by 16.6
16.6
E Illinois side ◂▸ Indiana side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.9 against a projected 142.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Indiana.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana is the faster team (66.6, #263 of 365) and E Illinois the slower (66.2, #286). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.0
model
Projected team totals
62.7 / 79.3
E Illinois / Indiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#277
E Illinois
67.6#244
Indiana
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageE Illinois
Where E Illinois struggles: shooting
E Illinois shoots an effective 45.7% (#353); Indiana allows 49.0% (#68). Expect about 46.9%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIndiana
Where Indiana scores: shooting
Indiana shoots an effective 56.1% (#22); E Illinois allows 50.8% (#146). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashIndiana
Style match: ball movement
Indiana assists on 62.5% of its made baskets; E Illinois allows assists on 58.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 62.6% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Half-court grind
Indiana averages 66.6 possessions per 40, E Illinois 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (E Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Illinois at about 30.1% of its shots from three, Indiana about 49.4%.
ClashIndiana
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Indiana (#49 in live-ball turnovers) against E Illinois (#53 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.1%. Historically E Illinois's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
E Illinois has the ball
OffenseIndiana allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #353
49.0% #68
-6.3 pt/100
18.6% #303
15.1% #280
+0.1 pt/100
28.2% #256
29.3% #122
-1.3 pt/100
33.5% #224
37.0% #236
+0.1 pt/100
74.4% #107
—
+0.2 pt/100
E Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.2 pts/100
Indiana has the ball
OffenseE Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
56.1% #22
50.8% #146
+3.6 pt/100
15.1% #71
19.3% #39
-0.8 pt/100
26.9% #300
35.2% #343
-0.1 pt/100
35.0% #179
35.3% #187
+0.0 pt/100
78.0% #18
—
+0.5 pt/100
Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersE Illinoisoffense vsIndianadefense
Share of shots by zone
E Illinois shoots
39.9
7.2
23.4
29.5
Indiana allows
34.1
6.1
22.8
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.1%#339 | 56.5%#101 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.8%#334 | 44.2%#271 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#323 | 38.8%#191 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#292 | 33.1%#128 | 33.7% |
Indianaoffense vsE Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Indiana shoots
35.3
3.1
10.6
51.0
E Illinois allows
39.2
5.2
14.1
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#18 | 60.7%#257 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.9%#24 | 37.0%#111 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.2%#22 | 33.5%#37 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#138 | 31.7%#50 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersE Illinois
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#271 of 365
Off reb %
28.2%
#256
Def reb %
64.8%
#343
Turnover %
18.6%
#303
Forced TO %
19.3%
#39
FT rate
33.5%
#224
FT allowed
35.3%
#187
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers+1.8
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed0.0
Indiana
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#238 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#300
Def reb %
70.7%
#122
Turnover %
15.1%
#71
Forced TO %
15.1%
#280
FT rate
35.0%
#179
FT allowed
37.0%
#236
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#238 of 365) to E Illinois’s −2.0 (#271).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
E Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kooper Jacobi | F | Sr | 6'7" | 33-32 | 33.3 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 24.0% | 3.0 | 52.2% | 23.9% | |
| 3 | Meechie White | G | Jr | 6'1" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 49.8% | 38.0% | 2.8 | 85.7% | 22.2% | |
| 5 | Zion Fruster | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-22 | 31.7 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 45.1% | 30.3% | 3.3 | 81.4% | 31.3% | |
| 24 | Terry McMorris | F | So | 6'7" | 33-24 | 26.1 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46.1% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 75.7% | 19.9% | |
| 10 | Preston Turner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 31-9 | 20.8 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 59.5% | 44.8% | 3.1 | 81.5% | 21.7% | |
| 13 | Nazareth Fisher | F | Sr | 6'10" | 29-26 | 15.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 55.3% | — | 0.0 | 68.4% | 18.2% | |
| 1 | Markus Blackwell | G | Fr | 6'2" | 23-0 | 16.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.4% | 43.6% | 1.7 | 77.8% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Andre Washington | G | Sr | 5'11" | 14-12 | 24.1 | 10.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 46.7% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 70.0% | 29.0% | |
| 7 | Prince Johnson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-2 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 48.8% | — | 0.0 | 68.8% | 11.0% | |
| 11 | Malik Olafioye | G | So | 6'2" | 20-2 | 16.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 39.6% | 15.0% | 1.0 | 64.0% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Andrew Austin | F | So | 6'7" | 24-3 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 41.7% | 21.7% | 1.9 | 61.5% | 17.6% | |
| 2 | JT Elder | G | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 4.0 | — | 24.6% | |
| 6 | Kyle Layton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Shane Sims | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Indiana2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Conor Enright | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 30.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 51.2% | 34.7% | 2.3 | 79.3% | 10.9% | |
| 6 | Tayton Conerway | G | Sr | 6'3" | 29-19 | 21.3 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 61.1% | 29.0% | 2.1 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 11 | Trent Sisley | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-0 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 49.1% | 27.1% | 1.6 | 53.8% | 20.3% | |
| 0 | Jasai Miles | G | Jr | 6'6" | 25-0 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 24.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 13 | Aleksa Ristic | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 14.4% | |
| 30 | Ian Stephens | G | Jr | 6'5" | 12-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 5.1% | |
| 21 | Drew Snively | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 20.0% | |
| 18 | Tryce Grensing | G | Fr | 6'0" | 10-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 3.6% | |
| 15 | Andrej Acimovic | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Jason Drake | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jordan Rayford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Josh Harris | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
E Illinois2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kooper Jacobi | F | Sr | 6'7" | 33-32 | 33.3 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 44.8% | 24.0% | 3.0 | 52.2% | 23.9% | |
| 3 | Meechie White | G | Jr | 6'1" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 49.8% | 38.0% | 2.8 | 85.7% | 22.2% | |
| 5 | Zion Fruster | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-22 | 31.7 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 45.1% | 30.3% | 3.3 | 81.4% | 31.3% | |
| 24 | Terry McMorris | F | So | 6'7" | 33-24 | 26.1 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 46.1% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 75.7% | 19.9% | |
| 10 | Preston Turner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 31-9 | 20.8 | 7.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 59.5% | 44.8% | 3.1 | 81.5% | 21.7% | |
| 13 | Nazareth Fisher | F | Sr | 6'10" | 29-26 | 15.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 55.3% | — | 0.0 | 68.4% | 18.2% | |
| 1 | Markus Blackwell | G | Fr | 6'2" | 23-0 | 16.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.4% | 43.6% | 1.7 | 77.8% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Andre Washington | G | Sr | 5'11" | 14-12 | 24.1 | 10.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 46.7% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 70.0% | 29.0% | |
| 7 | Prince Johnson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-2 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 48.8% | — | 0.0 | 68.8% | 11.0% | |
| 11 | Malik Olafioye | G | So | 6'2" | 20-2 | 16.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 39.6% | 15.0% | 1.0 | 64.0% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Andrew Austin | F | So | 6'7" | 24-3 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 41.7% | 21.7% | 1.9 | 61.5% | 17.6% | |
| 2 | JT Elder | G | Jr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 4.0 | — | 24.6% | |
| 6 | Kyle Layton | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Shane Sims | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26E Illinois
Against the spread
Season
16-14
Home
5-7
Road
9-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Covered 2 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
7-5
Road
6-10
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.6
Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | UT Martin | N | L 63–66 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 126.0 | O129 | 101.8 | 106.7 | 61.9 |
| Mar 4 | SIUE | N | W 77–71 OT | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 128.0 | O148 | 111.5 | 102.8 | 69.0 |
| Feb 28 | SIUE | A | L 50–77 | +6.0 | L−21.0 | 130.0 | U127 | 83.0 | 127.9 | 60.2 |
| Feb 26 | Lindenwood | A | W 71–67 | +7.5 | W+11.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 102.7 | 96.9 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | S Indiana | H | L 68–70 | −4.5 | L−6.5 | 136.0 | O138 | 103.9 | 106.9 | 65.5 |
| Feb 19 | Morehead St | H | L 70–73 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 105.5 | 110.0 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Little Rock | H | W 78–72 | +1.5 | W+7.5 | 135.5 | O150 | 117.5 | 108.4 | 66.4 |
| Feb 10 | W Illinois | A | L 70–79 | −4.5 | L−13.5 | 133.0 | O149 | 97.2 | 109.7 | 72.0 |
| Feb 7 | Tennessee Tech | A | W 60–54 | +4.5 | W+10.5 | 140.5 | U114 | 93.0 | 83.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 5 | Tennessee St | A | L 68–77 | +9.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | U145 | 98.6 | 111.6 | 69.0 |
Indiana
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
9-9
Road
4-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −5.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-18
Home
7-11
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Northwestern | N | L 61–74 | −6.0 | L−19.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 100.5 | 121.9 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Ohio State | A | L 78–91 | +4.0 | L−9.0 | 148.0 | O169 | 114.8 | 134.0 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Minnesota | H | W 77–47 | −6.5 | W+23.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 125.7 | 76.7 | 61.3 |
| Mar 1 | #13Michigan St | H | L 64–77 | +3.0 | L−10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 106.5 | 128.1 | 60.1 |
| Feb 24 | Northwestern | H | L 68–72 | −8.5 | L−12.5 | 146.0 | U140 | 111.3 | 117.8 | 61.1 |
| Feb 20 | #7Purdue | A | L 64–93 | +11.5 | L−17.5 | 150.0 | O157 | 100.8 | 146.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 15 | #8Illinois | A | L 51–71 | +9.0 | L−11.0 | 153.5 | U122 | 90.1 | 125.5 | 56.6 |
| Feb 9 | Oregon | H | W 92–74 | −11.0 | W+7.0 | 143.5 | O166 | 138.7 | 111.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | Wisconsin | H | W 78–77 OT | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 156.0 | U155 | 114.0 | 112.6 | 68.4 |
| Feb 3 | USC | A | L 75–81 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 152.5 | O156 | 103.2 | 111.5 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeE IllinoisIndiana
Efficiency
100.7
115.2
109.7
105.0
67.2
67.6
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
56.1%
44.9%
60.3%
31.7%
34.7%
74.4%
78.0%
33.5%
35.0%
Ball control & glass
18.6%
15.1%
19.3%
15.1%
28.2%
26.9%
35.2%
29.3%
9.5%
8.2%
11.7%
10.1%
Style
29.9%
50.5%
44.3%
38.4%
18.7%
9.3%
48.7%
62.5%
32.6%
27.0%
Roster
3.09
3.29
6'4.6"
6'3.4"
—
35.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputE Illinois
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Indiana
Returning minutes: 35.5%Returning production: 28.7%
Lost
- Tucker DeVries 34.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lamar Wilkerson 34.0 mpg, 20.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Dorn 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Miami
- Sam Alexis 21.3 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Reed Bailey 19.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Josh Harris no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Drake no D1 minutes last season
- Andrej Acimovic no D1 minutes last season
- Jordan Rayford no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.