CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCU Events Center, Boulder, CO

Abilene Chrstn

Efficiency #263

2025-26: 14-19 · 6-14 conf

Colorado

Efficiency #91

2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

69.3

win 18%

Projected

80.0

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: COLO −10.7 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado 69.3, Abilene Chrstn 68.4 → 69.3 possessions

+2.2

Colorado offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense

+2.7

Abilene Chrstn offense vs Colorado defense

−3.9

Projected total

149.3

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Colorado offense vs Abilene Chrstn defense

+2.7

Abilene Chrstn offense vs Colorado defense

+3.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Colorado by 10.7

10.7

Abilene Chrstn side ◂▸ Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.2 against a projected 149.3, and the margin steps add to +10.6 against +10.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colorado is the faster team (70.2, #87 of 365) and Abilene Chrstn the slower (68.9, #153). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.3

model

Projected team totals

69.3 / 80.0

Abilene Chrstn / Colorado

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#177

Abilene Chrstn

69.3#102

Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageColorado

Where Colorado scores: shooting

Colorado shoots an effective 52.9% (#108); Abilene Chrstn allows 56.5% (#352). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashColorado

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Colorado (#46 in turnover rate) against Abilene Chrstn (#2 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 19.8%. Historically Abilene Chrstn's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

ClashColorado

Style match: 3-point volume

Colorado rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Abilene Chrstn runs teams off the line (30.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.0% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseAbilene Chrstn

Abilene Chrstn's ball-hawking

Abilene Chrstn ranks #3 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Colorado's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageAbilene Chrstn

Where Abilene Chrstn struggles: shooting

Abilene Chrstn shoots an effective 47.5% (#326); Colorado allows 52.6% (#243). Expect about 49.7%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Abilene Chrstn, Colorado's defense, Abilene Chrstn's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Abilene Chrstn at about 32.2% of its shots from three, Colorado about 30.0%.

Abilene Chrstn has the ball

OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #326

52.6% #243

-2.2 pt/100

20.8% #356

15.3% #267

-1.7 pt/100

31.0% #164

29.6% #144

+0.0 pt/100

41.7% #34

36.6% #228

+0.5 pt/100

70.4% #258

—

-0.2 pt/100

Abilene Chrstn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100

Colorado has the ball

OffenseAbilene Chrstn allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #108

56.5% #352

+5.1 pt/100

14.6% #46

23.4% #2

-3.7 pt/100

29.0% #235

29.1% #113

-1.0 pt/100

36.7% #139

53.5% #365

+1.5 pt/100

76.1% #50

—

+0.3 pt/100

Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Abilene Chrstnoffense vsColoradodefense

Share of shots by zone

Abilene Chrstn shoots

40.0

8.0

18.8

33.2

Colorado allows

38.1

8.5

16.7

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.7%#280	57.7%#136	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.2%#300	35.7%#81	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.1%#108	43.6%#337	38.0%
Three	31.0%#319	36.3%#319	33.7%

Coloradooffense vsAbilene Chrstndefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado shoots

40.5

8.7

16.1

34.7

Abilene Chrstn allows

49.0

8.0

13.4

29.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#157	60.3%#243	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.5%#187	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#48	39.3%#214	38.0%
Three	35.2%#104	40.9%#365	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Abilene Chrstn

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#199 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#164

Def reb %

70.9%

#113

Turnover %

20.8%

#356

Forced TO %

23.4%

FT rate

41.7%

#34

FT allowed

53.5%

#365

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−2.8

Forcing turnovers+4.6

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−4.7

Colorado

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#235

Def reb %

70.4%

#144

Turnover %

14.6%

#46

Forced TO %

15.3%

#267

FT rate

36.7%

#139

FT allowed

36.6%

#228

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Colorado has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#164 of 365) to Abilene Chrstn’s −0.5 (#199).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Rich Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	29.5	9.9	3.9	4.7	2.6	51.6%	25.0%	0.4	63.8%	22.6%
15	Bradyn Hubbard	F	Sr	6'5"	32-29	28.1	16.3	4.7	1.6	2.3	45.5%	31.3%	4.5	79.9%	37.0%
23	Joseph Venzant	G	Sr	6'2"	33-23	25.2	4.4	3.2	0.8	1.0	55.3%	41.4%	0.9	77.3%	10.4%
5	Cbo Newton	G	So	6'3"	30-24	25.8	10.1	2.2	1.2	1.5	52.5%	30.6%	3.3	69.0%	23.9%
2	Yaniel Rivera	G	Jr	6'3"	29-21	24.4	7.2	1.4	2.3	1.6	49.2%	36.7%	4.4	69.0%	20.5%
0	Zy Wright	G	Sr	6'5"	33-6	17.4	6.3	2.3	0.6	0.9	51.7%	30.8%	2.0	85.0%	21.0%
21	Cade Hornecker	F	Jr	7'0"	33-19	15.9	5.3	3.4	1.2	1.2	46.6%	15.0%	0.6	69.8%	23.4%
10	Joseph Scott	F	Jr	6'9"	28-7	12.3	4.3	3.7	0.5	1.1	52.1%	0.0%	0.1	51.3%	24.4%
7	Christian Alston	G	So	6'7"	30-0	11.3	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.8	38.1%	22.2%	1.5	69.4%	31.6%
11	Ma'Shy Hill	F	Jr	6'8"	33-7	10.1	2.7	1.5	0.2	0.8	61.9%	—	0.0	39.3%	17.7%
24	Isaac Dye	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	8.2	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	2.3	75.0%	22.3%
3	Tylan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	24-0	5.0	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.3	30.0%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	14.1%
20	Isaiah Carrillo	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	5.1	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	45.0%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	15.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Abilene Chrstn2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Rich Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	32-29	29.5	9.9	3.9	4.7	2.6	51.6%	25.0%	0.4	63.8%	22.6%
15	Bradyn Hubbard	F	Sr	6'5"	32-29	28.1	16.3	4.7	1.6	2.3	45.5%	31.3%	4.5	79.9%	37.0%
23	Joseph Venzant	G	Sr	6'2"	33-23	25.2	4.4	3.2	0.8	1.0	55.3%	41.4%	0.9	77.3%	10.4%
5	Cbo Newton	G	So	6'3"	30-24	25.8	10.1	2.2	1.2	1.5	52.5%	30.6%	3.3	69.0%	23.9%
2	Yaniel Rivera	G	Jr	6'3"	29-21	24.4	7.2	1.4	2.3	1.6	49.2%	36.7%	4.4	69.0%	20.5%
0	Zy Wright	G	Sr	6'5"	33-6	17.4	6.3	2.3	0.6	0.9	51.7%	30.8%	2.0	85.0%	21.0%
21	Cade Hornecker	F	Jr	7'0"	33-19	15.9	5.3	3.4	1.2	1.2	46.6%	15.0%	0.6	69.8%	23.4%
10	Joseph Scott	F	Jr	6'9"	28-7	12.3	4.3	3.7	0.5	1.1	52.1%	0.0%	0.1	51.3%	24.4%
7	Christian Alston	G	So	6'7"	30-0	11.3	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.8	38.1%	22.2%	1.5	69.4%	31.6%
11	Ma'Shy Hill	F	Jr	6'8"	33-7	10.1	2.7	1.5	0.2	0.8	61.9%	—	0.0	39.3%	17.7%
24	Isaac Dye	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	8.2	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	2.3	75.0%	22.3%
3	Tylan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	24-0	5.0	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.3	30.0%	0.0%	0.1	25.0%	14.1%
20	Isaiah Carrillo	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	5.1	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	45.0%	25.0%	0.4	50.0%	15.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Abilene Chrstn

Against the spread

Season

13-17

Home

4-7

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

6-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +6.5

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	Utah TechAdjEM #216	N	L 74–80	+1.5	L−4.5	141.5	O154	105.1	113.6	70.4
Mar 11	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	N	W 84–78	−1.0	W+5.0	135.0	O162	109.8	102.0	76.5
Mar 7	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	H	L 57–64	−1.0	L−8.0	133.0	U121	87.1	97.8	65.4
Mar 5	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	A	L 48–87	+10.0	L−29.0	137.0	U135	66.2	120.1	72.5
Feb 28	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	A	L 67–74	+15.0	W+8.0	140.5	O141	96.6	106.7	69.3
Feb 26	Utah TechAdjEM #216	A	L 81–85	+2.0	L−2.0	139.0	O166	115.9	121.7	69.9
Feb 21	Southern UtahAdjEM #293	H	W 87–83	−8.0	L−4.0	143.5	O170	115.9	110.6	75.1
Feb 16	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	A	L 62–65 OT	−1.0	L−4.0	133.5	U127	81.8	85.8	75.8
Feb 14	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	H	W 73–59	−3.0	W+11.0	135.5	U132	104.1	84.2	70.1
Feb 12	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	H	W 67–63	−1.5	W+2.5	135.0	U130	99.7	93.7	67.2

Colorado

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

11-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-16

Home

9-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over 5 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 86–90 OT	+9.0	W+5.0	162.0	O176	103.8	108.6	82.9
Mar 10	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	L 83–92	−1.0	L−10.0	165.0	O175	113.5	125.8	73.1
Mar 7	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 79–89	+13.5	W+3.5	156.0	O168	108.7	122.5	72.7
Mar 3	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 92–78	−1.0	W+13.0	148.5	O170	143.9	122.0	63.9
Feb 28	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 62–102	+19.0	L−21.0	138.5	O164	89.7	147.5	69.1
Feb 25	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 79–70	−6.0	W+3.0	163.0	U149	98.2	87.0	80.4
Feb 21	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 83–69	−3.5	W+10.5	162.5	U152	114.9	95.6	72.2
Feb 14	#22BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 86–90 OT	+15.5	W+11.5	162.0	O176	104.6	109.5	82.2
Feb 11	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 44–78	+13.5	L−20.5	155.5	U122	69.1	122.4	63.7
Feb 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 78–70	−3.5	W+4.5	158.0	U148	118.9	106.7	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Abilene ChrstnColorado

Efficiency

102.6

113.2

107.7

108.7

68.4

69.3

—

Shooting

47.5%

52.9%

48.0%

53.0%

31.0%

35.2%

70.4%

76.1%

41.7%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

20.8%

14.6%

23.4%

15.3%

31.0%

29.0%

29.1%

29.6%

12.3%

8.4%

12.6%

9.2%

Style

32.8%

35.2%

44.0%

43.9%

16.5%

16.7%

54.1%

55.2%

37.1%

34.7%

Roster

3.22

1.94

6'4.5"

6'5.6"

—

87.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Abilene Chrstn

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Abilene Chrstn's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%

Lost

Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.