CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

Robert Morris

Efficiency #142

2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf

Nevada

Efficiency #71

2025-26: 24-13 · 14-9 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

68.1

win 27%

Projected

75.4

win 73%

No line posted yet.

Model: NEV −7.3 · total 143.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Nevada 67.4, Robert Morris 66.4 → 65.5 possessions

−6.1

Nevada offense vs Robert Morris defense

+2.4

Robert Morris offense vs Nevada defense

−1.0

Projected total

143.5

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Nevada offense vs Robert Morris defense

+2.4

Robert Morris offense vs Nevada defense

+1.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Nevada by 7.3

7.3

Robert Morris side ◂▸ Nevada side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.2 against +7.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nevada.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Nevada is the faster team (66.8, #253 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (66.1, #289). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.5

model

Projected team totals

68.1 / 75.4

Robert Morris / Nevada

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.4#323

Robert Morris

67.4#263

Nevada

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRobert Morris

Where Robert Morris scores: shooting

Robert Morris shoots an effective 54.9% (#39); Nevada allows 51.1% (#166). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Nevada averages 66.8 possessions per 40, Robert Morris 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashNevada

Style match: 3-point volume

Nevada rarely shoots threes (32.3% of its shots); Robert Morris runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.5% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageNevada

Where Nevada scores: ball control

Nevada turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (#55); Robert Morris forces turnovers on 15.9% of opponent possessions (#225). Expect about 15.1%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Robert Morris) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Robert Morris at about 42.3% of its shots from three, Nevada about 31.5%.

ClashRobert Morris

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Robert Morris (#11 in offensive rebounding) against Nevada (#33 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.7%. Historically Robert Morris's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

Robert Morris has the ball

OffenseNevada allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #39

51.1% #166

+2.9 pt/100

18.6% #302

17.0% #150

-1.4 pt/100

37.5% #11

26.9% #33

+2.0 pt/100

28.0% #343

38.9% #282

-0.1 pt/100

69.4% #289

—

-0.3 pt/100

Robert Morris net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100

Nevada has the ball

OffenseRobert Morris allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

50.0% #100

-2.0 pt/100

14.8% #55

15.9% #225

+2.1 pt/100

32.2% #119

28.8% #98

+0.3 pt/100

44.8% #6

40.1% #303

+1.0 pt/100

75.7% #61

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nevada net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Robert Morrisoffense vsNevadadefense

Share of shots by zone

Robert Morris shoots

38.1

6.1

15.5

40.2

Nevada allows

38.7

5.9

12.9

42.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#86	53.7%#36	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.8%#271	37.8%#132	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#85	46.9%#359	38.0%
Three	38.0%#18	33.7%#168	33.7%

Nevadaoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Nevada shoots

39.2

6.2

22.1

32.5

Robert Morris allows

42.6

6.6

15.3

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#335	55.8%#80	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#236	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#123	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	35.8%#70	33.2%#135	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Robert Morris

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#267 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

71.2%

#98

Turnover %

18.6%

#302

Forced TO %

15.9%

#225

FT rate

28.0%

#343

FT allowed

40.1%

#303

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.2

Nevada

+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#26 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#119

Def reb %

73.1%

#33

Turnover %

14.8%

#55

Forced TO %

17.0%

#150

FT rate

44.8%

FT allowed

38.9%

#282

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.5

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Nevada has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#26 of 365) to Robert Morris’s −1.9 (#267).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Robert Morris2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Prather Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	34.0	15.7	3.9	3.6	0.8	54.3%	36.8%	6.9	84.7%	25.8%
16	Nikolaos Chitikoudis	F	Jr	6'9"	32-27	26.1	11.3	7.7	1.8	1.3	54.7%	0.0%	0.1	39.8%	27.8%
12	Darius Livingston	G	Fr	6'2"	27-7	25.8	9.6	2.0	3.0	2.6	52.5%	38.4%	5.9	64.3%	27.3%
20	Albert Vargas	G	Sr	5'10"	28-26	24.1	7.5	2.3	4.0	2.0	47.6%	38.9%	3.2	87.5%	22.3%
4	Kaleb Brown	G	Sr	6'7"	32-20	19.7	4.1	2.5	2.3	1.3	50.4%	30.0%	2.2	60.0%	16.2%
3	Ta'Zir Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	31-11	19.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.0	47.1%	30.6%	2.7	77.4%	23.3%
1	Josh Hill	F	So	6'11"	22-6	16.9	7.5	4.4	0.4	1.5	51.7%	29.0%	2.8	51.9%	30.7%
5	Cam Wilds	G	Jr	6'6"	24-3	13.1	4.0	1.6	0.6	0.7	57.4%	48.3%	1.2	75.0%	18.3%
13	Samuel Obenjo	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	9.0	1.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	13.2%
6	Eddie Cooke III	F	Fr	6'5"	14-0	8.6	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.6	47.6%	0.0%	0.2	94.1%	19.2%
35	Ubong Okon	C	Sr	7'1"	17-0	6.2	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.6%
21	Jeremiah Littlejohn	G	Jr	6'5"	5-0	4.2	3.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	80.0%	54.0%
9	Cyril Arvanitis	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	25.1%
8	Tanner O'Grady	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Vasilije Serafimoski	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nevada2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Elijah Price	F	So	6'9"	37-37	30.0	12.8	8.5	1.1	1.9	46.3%	35.5%	0.8	73.3%	26.5%
12	Tayshawn Comer	G	Sr	6'1"	37-36	25.2	11.0	1.8	3.6	2.0	44.2%	35.1%	3.1	79.7%	30.7%
7	Vaughn Weems	G	Jr	6'5"	34-25	25.0	10.1	4.2	0.9	1.1	60.4%	38.2%	2.0	76.8%	21.8%
6	Kaleb Lowery	F	Sr	6'8"	36-27	18.3	4.6	3.1	1.0	0.5	56.9%	33.9%	1.7	75.8%	14.4%
0	Chuck Bailey III	G	Jr	6'4"	33-14	18.0	6.3	2.4	1.0	0.5	45.9%	39.4%	2.2	74.4%	23.3%
3	Tyler Rolison	G	Jr	6'0"	34-4	17.2	5.5	1.7	2.6	1.0	41.1%	22.0%	1.2	76.0%	23.0%
17	Peyton White	G	Fr	6'6"	36-0	13.9	4.6	1.7	0.4	0.4	48.1%	32.7%	1.4	79.2%	20.2%
21	Joel Armotrading	C	Sr	6'10"	21-10	16.9	5.2	4.0	0.5	0.9	50.7%	—	0.0	77.4%	18.3%
5	Amire Robinson	G	So	6'3"	36-0	9.4	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	56.0%	33.3%	1.3	70.6%	16.0%
2	Myles Walker	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	0.6	1.4	0.4	46.3%	33.3%	0.6	100.0%	13.7%
10	Jeriah Coleman	C	Sr	7'1"	29-0	5.8	1.1	1.6	0.0	0.1	70.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	9.6%
50	Ethan Croley	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.3	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.3	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	46.2%	22.5%
24	Christopher Baudreau	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	40.0%	—	0.0	—	37.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Robert Morris2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Prather Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	34.0	15.7	3.9	3.6	0.8	54.3%	36.8%	6.9	84.7%	25.8%
16	Nikolaos Chitikoudis	F	Jr	6'9"	32-27	26.1	11.3	7.7	1.8	1.3	54.7%	0.0%	0.1	39.8%	27.8%
12	Darius Livingston	G	Fr	6'2"	27-7	25.8	9.6	2.0	3.0	2.6	52.5%	38.4%	5.9	64.3%	27.3%
20	Albert Vargas	G	Sr	5'10"	28-26	24.1	7.5	2.3	4.0	2.0	47.6%	38.9%	3.2	87.5%	22.3%
4	Kaleb Brown	G	Sr	6'7"	32-20	19.7	4.1	2.5	2.3	1.3	50.4%	30.0%	2.2	60.0%	16.2%
3	Ta'Zir Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	31-11	19.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.0	47.1%	30.6%	2.7	77.4%	23.3%
1	Josh Hill	F	So	6'11"	22-6	16.9	7.5	4.4	0.4	1.5	51.7%	29.0%	2.8	51.9%	30.7%
5	Cam Wilds	G	Jr	6'6"	24-3	13.1	4.0	1.6	0.6	0.7	57.4%	48.3%	1.2	75.0%	18.3%
13	Samuel Obenjo	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	9.0	1.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	13.2%
6	Eddie Cooke III	F	Fr	6'5"	14-0	8.6	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.6	47.6%	0.0%	0.2	94.1%	19.2%
35	Ubong Okon	C	Sr	7'1"	17-0	6.2	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.6%
21	Jeremiah Littlejohn	G	Jr	6'5"	5-0	4.2	3.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	80.0%	54.0%
9	Cyril Arvanitis	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	25.1%
8	Tanner O'Grady	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Vasilije Serafimoski	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Robert Morris

Against the spread

Season

19-11-1

Home

10-4-1

Road

9-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.9

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	N	L 64–70	−4.0	L−10.0	146.5	U134	101.5	111.1	63.0
Mar 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 68–53	−4.0	W+11.0	143.5	U121	109.0	84.9	62.4
Feb 28	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 83–64	−12.5	W+6.5	157.5	U147	129.8	100.1	63.9
Feb 25	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 73–62	−8.0	W+3.0	150.5	U135	114.8	97.5	63.6
Feb 22	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	W 81–68	+4.0	W+17.0	146.5	O149	119.9	100.6	67.6
Feb 15	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 93–69	−1.5	W+22.5	156.0	O162	140.7	104.4	66.1
Feb 12	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 85–68	−4.0	W+13.0	154.0	U153	135.3	108.3	62.8
Feb 7	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	144.0	U138	111.5	102.2	64.6
Feb 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	W 72–66	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U138	105.0	96.2	68.6
Jan 31	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 71–83	+2.5	L−9.5	144.5	O154	101.6	118.8	69.9

Nevada

Against the spread

Season

21-15-1

Home

12-7

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.0

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

21-16

Home

10-9

Road

7-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.2

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	153.0	U144	107.2	116.5	64.4
Mar 21	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	W 73–63	−7.0	W+3.0	147.5	U136	117.6	101.5	62.0
Mar 18	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 89–75	−9.0	W+5.0	160.0	O164	123.2	103.8	72.2
Mar 13	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 66–79	+6.5	L−6.5	144.5	O145	90.3	108.1	73.1
Mar 12	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	N	W 84–80	+3.5	W+7.5	137.5	O164	119.3	113.6	70.4
Mar 11	Air ForceAdjEM #360	N	W 80–45	−19.0	W+16.0	141.0	U125	112.3	63.2	71.2
Mar 7	Air ForceAdjEM #360	H	W 74–59	−25.5	L−10.5	145.0	U133	114.2	91.1	64.8
Mar 3	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 73–83	−1.5	L−11.5	144.0	O156	110.1	125.2	66.3
Feb 28	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 83–85 OT	−1.0	L−3.0	151.5	O168	110.0	112.7	75.4
Feb 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	W 67–60	+1.0	W+8.0	150.0	U127	94.7	84.9	70.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Robert MorrisNevada

Efficiency

110.0

112.3

108.4

105.3

66.4

67.4

—

Shooting

54.9%

50.0%

53.5%

48.2%

38.0%

35.8%

69.4%

75.7%

28.0%

44.8%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

14.8%

15.9%

17.0%

37.5%

32.2%

28.8%

26.9%

10.3%

8.7%

10.0%

9.5%

Style

40.7%

32.3%

43.9%

39.9%

8.4%

15.7%

62.8%

57.6%

32.8%

34.5%

Roster

2.82

2.84

6'5.2"

6'5.1"

84.8%

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Robert Morris

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 77.0%

Lost

DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Tanner O'Grady no D1 minutes last season
Vasilije Serafimoski no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Nevada

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 81.9%

Lost

Corey Camper Jr. 28.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.