CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conference

Gardner-Webb

Efficiency #363

2025-26: 4-29 · 2-16 conf

UConn

Efficiency #10

2025-26: 34-6 · 19-4 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

58.4

win 1%

Projected

87.0

win 99%

No line posted yet.

Model: CONN −28.6 · total 145.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UConn 66.4, Gardner-Webb 69.8 → 67.9 possessions

−1.0

UConn offense vs Gardner-Webb defense

+11.4

Gardner-Webb offense vs UConn defense

−13.3

Projected total

145.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UConn offense vs Gardner-Webb defense

+11.4

Gardner-Webb offense vs UConn defense

+13.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UConn by 28.6

28.6

Gardner-Webb side ◂▸ UConn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.3 against a projected 145.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UConn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Gardner-Webb is the faster team (70.8, #62 of 365) and UConn the slower (65.7, #308). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.4

model

Projected team totals

58.4 / 87.0

Gardner-Webb / UConn

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#64

Gardner-Webb

66.4#324

UConn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageGardner-Webb

Where Gardner-Webb struggles: shooting

Gardner-Webb shoots an effective 47.8% (#317); UConn allows 45.7% (#7). Expect about 46.4%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUConn

Where UConn scores: shooting

UConn shoots an effective 54.3% (#59); Gardner-Webb allows 56.9% (#356). Expect about 55.9%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassUConn

UConn owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 37.1% is worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions for UConn's offense.

DefenseUConn

UConn's shot-blocking

UConn ranks #12 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.4% of Gardner-Webb's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassGardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.6% is worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions against Gardner-Webb's offense.

TurnoversGardner-Webb

Gardner-Webb turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Gardner-Webb's offense.

Gardner-Webb has the ball

OffenseUConn allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #317

45.7% #7

-6.9 pt/100

19.8% #344

17.8% #107

-2.9 pt/100

23.2% #350

28.8% #99

-3.6 pt/100

30.3% #302

40.7% #308

+0.1 pt/100

68.5% #313

—

-0.3 pt/100

Gardner-Webb net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -13.6 pts/100

UConn has the ball

OffenseGardner-Webb allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #59

56.9% #356

+6.6 pt/100

16.4% #163

15.3% #264

+1.4 pt/100

35.7% #30

36.6% #355

+4.1 pt/100

29.9% #313

35.2% #185

-0.3 pt/100

72.4% #192

—

+0.0 pt/100

UConn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Gardner-Webboffense vsUConndefense

Share of shots by zone

Gardner-Webb shoots

42.6

5.3

13.4

38.7

UConn allows

40.0

7.0

17.3

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.3%#315	50.8%#6	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.4%#361	45.3%#306	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#311	34.8%#70	38.0%
Three	31.0%#320	30.2%#8	33.7%

UConnoffense vsGardner-Webbdefense

Share of shots by zone

UConn shoots

37.7

7.8

14.2

40.3

Gardner-Webb allows

41.8

5.5

11.5

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.1%#36	65.9%#357	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	44.7%#287	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.9%#17	37.3%#139	38.0%
Three	34.4%#150	36.0%#300	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Gardner-Webb

−8.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#364 of 365

Off reb %

23.2%

#350

Def reb %

63.4%

#355

Turnover %

19.8%

#344

Forced TO %

15.3%

#264

FT rate

30.3%

#302

FT allowed

35.2%

#185

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed0.0

UConn

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#160 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#30

Def reb %

71.2%

#99

Turnover %

16.4%

#163

Forced TO %

17.8%

#107

FT rate

29.9%

#313

FT allowed

40.7%

#308

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed−1.4

UConn has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#160 of 365) to Gardner-Webb’s −8.5 (#364).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Gardner-Webb2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Colin Hawkins	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.2	8.2	1.8	2.1	2.1	46.0%	23.8%	1.4	59.0%	22.0%
5	Jacob Hogarth	F	So	6'9"	33-30	25.0	10.7	7.1	1.3	2.4	53.8%	40.0%	0.5	70.6%	26.3%
25	Ace Talbert	G	Jr	6'0"	32-29	25.3	6.9	1.9	1.4	0.9	44.3%	26.1%	4.4	61.7%	18.6%
6	Jacob Hudson	G	So	6'2"	29-17	27.1	10.7	4.0	1.7	1.6	48.8%	25.0%	1.8	65.1%	24.7%
1	Spence Sims	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	24.5	9.9	1.9	0.8	1.6	59.6%	43.0%	5.2	75.8%	22.6%
10	Curtis Williams III	G	Jr	6'7"	26-22	21.3	6.6	2.9	0.7	0.8	43.7%	27.4%	2.8	70.2%	20.5%
0	Jamias Ferere	G	Fr	6'6"	32-8	17.0	6.3	2.9	0.7	1.3	44.0%	23.7%	1.2	77.0%	25.6%
4	DJ Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-3	16.7	7.6	2.8	0.4	1.4	51.1%	35.1%	3.5	62.9%	29.0%
11	NaVuan Peterson	F	Sr	6'6"	27-4	13.2	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.4	43.5%	26.7%	2.2	84.6%	16.2%
7	Riek Riek	F	Sr	6'9"	27-0	10.4	1.4	1.3	0.5	0.8	47.2%	26.1%	0.9	66.7%	12.0%
35	Bo Barber	G	Sr	5'10"	17-0	8.2	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.8	28.6%	0.0%	0.4	90.9%	13.1%
3	Julius Clark	G	Jr	6'7"	8-4	17.0	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.6	52.7%	23.1%	1.6	73.1%	21.9%
21	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G	Jr	6'8"	10-0	4.7	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.8	30.0%	50.0%	0.2	0.0%	16.2%
12	Cameron Gales	G	So	6'0"	10-0	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	—	26.1%
9	Paul Lindberg	G	Jr	6'4"	8-1	1.9	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	35.7%	50.0%	0.3	—	26.2%
2	Isaiah Hicks	G	Jr	6'0"	5-1	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.2	20.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	34.3%
8	Ashton King	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UConn2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Silas Demary Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	39-38	28.4	10.1	4.5	5.9	2.2	50.9%	38.5%	2.3	80.1%	23.7%
1	Solo Ball	G	Jr	6'4"	39-39	28.3	12.8	3.0	1.5	1.2	48.4%	30.0%	6.6	85.2%	28.7%
24	Braylon Mullins	G	Fr	6'6"	33-29	28.2	12.0	3.5	1.4	1.2	52.4%	33.5%	6.5	88.9%	26.7%
23	Jayden Ross	F	Jr	6'7"	38-0	17.5	4.6	2.5	0.8	0.6	60.7%	39.1%	1.7	69.2%	15.0%
0	Malachi Smith	G	Sr	6'1"	40-2	15.9	3.6	1.5	3.0	0.9	46.1%	44.7%	1.2	53.2%	17.9%
12	Eric Reibe	C	Fr	7'1"	40-5	13.8	5.9	3.3	0.5	0.6	67.1%	30.8%	0.3	52.1%	22.6%
3	Jaylin Stewart	F	Jr	6'7"	32-12	16.2	4.2	2.6	1.1	0.7	51.3%	34.5%	1.7	59.3%	17.2%
4	Dwayne Koroma	F	Sr	6'8"	16-0	5.8	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.3	56.3%	—	0.0	54.5%	17.2%
9	Alec Millender	G	Sr	6'1"	18-0	3.3	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.2	40.9%	14.3%	0.4	66.7%	15.1%
77	Uros Paunovic	G	Jr	6'3"	12-0	1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	7.9%
10	Rrezon Elezaj	C	Fr	7'1"	4-0	1.3	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.0%
13	Jacob Ross	F	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Gardner-Webb2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Colin Hawkins	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.2	8.2	1.8	2.1	2.1	46.0%	23.8%	1.4	59.0%	22.0%
5	Jacob Hogarth	F	So	6'9"	33-30	25.0	10.7	7.1	1.3	2.4	53.8%	40.0%	0.5	70.6%	26.3%
25	Ace Talbert	G	Jr	6'0"	32-29	25.3	6.9	1.9	1.4	0.9	44.3%	26.1%	4.4	61.7%	18.6%
6	Jacob Hudson	G	So	6'2"	29-17	27.1	10.7	4.0	1.7	1.6	48.8%	25.0%	1.8	65.1%	24.7%
1	Spence Sims	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	24.5	9.9	1.9	0.8	1.6	59.6%	43.0%	5.2	75.8%	22.6%
10	Curtis Williams III	G	Jr	6'7"	26-22	21.3	6.6	2.9	0.7	0.8	43.7%	27.4%	2.8	70.2%	20.5%
0	Jamias Ferere	G	Fr	6'6"	32-8	17.0	6.3	2.9	0.7	1.3	44.0%	23.7%	1.2	77.0%	25.6%
4	DJ Jefferson	G	Jr	6'4"	27-3	16.7	7.6	2.8	0.4	1.4	51.1%	35.1%	3.5	62.9%	29.0%
11	NaVuan Peterson	F	Sr	6'6"	27-4	13.2	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.4	43.5%	26.7%	2.2	84.6%	16.2%
7	Riek Riek	F	Sr	6'9"	27-0	10.4	1.4	1.3	0.5	0.8	47.2%	26.1%	0.9	66.7%	12.0%
35	Bo Barber	G	Sr	5'10"	17-0	8.2	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.8	28.6%	0.0%	0.4	90.9%	13.1%
3	Julius Clark	G	Jr	6'7"	8-4	17.0	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.6	52.7%	23.1%	1.6	73.1%	21.9%
21	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G	Jr	6'8"	10-0	4.7	0.3	0.7	0.1	0.8	30.0%	50.0%	0.2	0.0%	16.2%
12	Cameron Gales	G	So	6'0"	10-0	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	—	26.1%
9	Paul Lindberg	G	Jr	6'4"	8-1	1.9	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	35.7%	50.0%	0.3	—	26.2%
2	Isaiah Hicks	G	Jr	6'0"	5-1	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.2	20.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	34.3%
8	Ashton King	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

7-3

Road

6-9-1

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +5.0

Covered 9 straightCovered 9 of 10 as an underdogCovered 9 of 10 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

8-2

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.5

Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 10 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 59–81	+27.5	W+5.5	156.5	U140	84.0	115.3	70.3
Mar 4	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	N	W 65–64	+11.0	W+12.0	144.0	U129	100.7	99.1	64.6
Feb 28	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 61–71	+13.5	W+3.5	146.5	U132	86.8	101.0	70.3
Feb 26	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	H	L 71–77	+12.5	W+6.5	145.5	O148	114.6	124.2	62.0
Feb 19	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 70–82	+19.0	W+7.0	162.5	U152	101.4	118.8	69.0
Feb 17	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	L 66–75	+17.5	W+8.5	160.5	U141	88.8	100.9	74.4
Feb 14	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 87–112	+25.5	W+0.5	162.0	O199	111.4	143.5	78.1
Feb 12	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	L 85–103	+20.5	W+2.5	155.0	O188	110.9	134.4	76.7
Feb 7	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	A	L 62–68	+17.5	W+11.5	145.5	U130	97.9	107.4	63.3
Feb 4	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	L 66–86	+12.5	L−7.5	148.0	O152	93.0	121.1	71.0

UConn

Against the spread

Season

17-23

Home

4-13

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-22-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.3

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 6	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 63–69	+6.5	W+0.5	146.0	U132	96.3	105.4	65.4
Apr 4	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 71–62	+1.5	W+10.5	139.0	U133	111.8	97.6	63.5
Mar 29	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	W 73–72	+4.5	W+5.5	135.5	O145	116.3	114.7	62.8
Mar 27	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	W 67–63	−2.0	W+2.0	136.0	U130	105.4	99.1	63.6
Mar 22	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	W 73–57	−5.5	W+10.5	136.0	U130	115.9	90.5	63.0
Mar 20	#15FurmanAdjEM #163	N	W 82–71	−21.0	L−10.0	135.0	O153	125.3	108.5	65.4
Mar 14	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 52–72	−2.0	L−22.0	139.5	U124	82.7	114.5	62.9
Mar 13	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	W 67–51	−14.0	W+2.0	139.0	U118	112.6	85.7	59.5
Mar 12	XavierAdjEM #129	N	W 93–68	−16.5	W+8.5	151.0	O161	144.4	105.5	64.4
Mar 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 62–68	−10.0	L−16.0	142.5	U130	92.2	101.1	67.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Gardner-WebbUConn

Efficiency

99.1

116.7

117.1

98.2

69.8

66.4

—

Shooting

47.8%

54.3%

48.6%

56.1%

31.0%

34.4%

68.5%

72.4%

30.3%

29.9%

Ball control & glass

19.8%

16.4%

15.3%

17.8%

23.2%

35.7%

36.6%

28.8%

11.7%

8.5%

10.4%

10.1%

Style

39.8%

40.9%

46.5%

45.8%

14.3%

11.7%

41.0%

64.9%

36.5%

27.5%

Roster

2.34

2.62

6'4.1"

6'5.5"

—

70.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Gardner-Webb

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Gardner-Webb's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UConn

Returning minutes: 70.6%Returning production: 63.9%

Lost

Alex Karaban 34.3 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tarris Reed Jr. 23.9 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Furphy 0.9 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Jacob Ross no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 71% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.