CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceChace Athletic Center, Smithfield, RI
Siena
Efficiency #134
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-7 conf
@
Bryant
Efficiency #347
2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
71.3
win 69%
Projected
65.4
win 31%
No line posted yet.
Model: SIE −5.9 · total 136.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Bryant 66.3, Siena 66.4 → 64.4 possessions
−8.5
Bryant offense vs Siena defense
−6.3
Siena offense vs Bryant defense
+3.3
Projected total
136.7
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Bryant offense vs Siena defense
−6.3
Siena offense vs Bryant defense
−3.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Siena by 5.9
5.9
Siena side ◂▸ Bryant side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bryant.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bryant is the faster team (64.4, #347 of 365) and Siena the slower (64.2, #350). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
136.7
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 65.4
Siena / Bryant
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.4#322
Siena
66.3#330
Bryant

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Bryant averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Siena 64.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageBryant
Where Bryant struggles: shooting
Bryant shoots an effective 46.9% (#340); Siena allows 48.5% (#48). Expect about 47.3%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversBryant
Bryant turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Bryant's offense.
ClashSiena
Style match: 3-point volume
Siena rarely shoots threes (32.2% of its shots); Bryant runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.3% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSiena
Where Siena scores: ball control
Siena turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#126); Bryant forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#316). Expect about 14.8%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bryant, Siena, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Siena at about 31.3% of its shots from three, Bryant about 46.2%.
Siena has the ball
OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #222
52.7% #257
+0.3 pt/100
15.8% #126
14.6% #316
+2.4 pt/100
31.8% #133
31.0% #203
+0.8 pt/100
33.4% #226
33.5% #141
-0.2 pt/100
77.1% #32
—
+0.4 pt/100
Siena net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
Bryant has the ball
OffenseSiena allowsvs D1 avg
46.9% #340
48.5% #48
-5.6 pt/100
20.2% #351
17.0% #152
-2.6 pt/100
27.7% #276
29.5% #133
-1.4 pt/100
29.4% #322
27.5% #27
-0.9 pt/100
76.0% #53
—
+0.3 pt/100
Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Sienaoffense vsBryantdefense
Share of shots by zone
Siena shoots
Bryant allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.7%#20657.5%#12858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.5%#4644.0%#26739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.1%#2334.7%#6538.0%
Three30.6%#33036.3%#32033.7%
Bryantoffense vsSienadefense
Share of shots by zone
Bryant shoots
Siena allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.6%#28353.4%#2958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27744.7%#28739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)27.8%#36339.7%#23238.0%
Three30.0%#34332.3%#8233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Siena
+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#50 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#133
Def reb %
70.5%
#133
Turnover %
15.8%
#126
Forced TO %
17.0%
#152
FT rate
33.4%
#226
FT allowed
27.5%
#27
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Bryant
−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#276
Def reb %
69.0%
#203
Turnover %
20.2%
#351
Forced TO %
14.6%
#316
FT rate
29.4%
#322
FT allowed
33.5%
#141
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Siena has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#50 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Siena2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Brendan CoyleGSr6'7"35-3530.58.74.60.91.046.8%30.0%6.882.1%19.8%
30Tan Yildizogluat VMIGSr6'4"31-3131.110.23.64.72.345.4%27.1%3.863.3%24.5%
2Isaiah HendersonGSo6'6"28-113.83.80.80.50.547.1%30.4%2.575.8%18.8%
11Owen SchlagerGSo6'3"5-010.02.81.20.61.431.8%14.3%1.470.0%27.5%
33Chris TorresGJr6'2"4-02.50.50.00.30.025.0%—0.0—24.4%
12Reid DucharmeGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Andrs AmnGFr7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Angelos BratakosGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Mana MartinGFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Pace ProsserGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Parrish Edmond Jr.GFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
94Paul LambertGFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Sei'Mir RobersonGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Tim IbukunoluwaGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Trent EgbiremolenGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
77Yannis StegerGFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tan Yildizoglu (from VMI)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SienaBryant
Efficiency
108.6
100.5
106.7
113.4
66.4
66.3
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
46.9%
52.5%
48.7%
30.6%
30.0%
77.1%
76.0%
33.4%
29.4%
Ball control & glass
15.8%
20.2%
17.0%
14.6%
31.8%
27.7%
29.5%
31.0%
10.2%
12.2%
9.5%
8.7%
Style
32.2%
47.9%
47.7%
39.2%
7.1%
7.9%
53.2%
53.1%
22.3%
28.4%
Roster
3.65
2.17
6'5.6"
6'7.1"
21.6%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Siena
Returning minutes: 21.6%Returning production: 12.4%
Lost
  • Gavin Doty 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
  • Justice Shoats 35.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Francis Folefac 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
  • Antonio Chandler 18.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Christian Jones 17.0 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Riley Mulvey 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Tan Yildizoglu from VMI · 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Paul Lambert no D1 minutes last season
  • Angelos Bratakos no D1 minutes last season
  • Mana Martin no D1 minutes last season
  • Yannis Steger no D1 minutes last season
  • Tim Ibukunoluwa no D1 minutes last season

Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bryant
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Mon, Nov 32025-26Bryant 66 – 82 Siena

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.