CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteRock Hill Sports & Event Center, Rock Hill, SCField of 68 Opening Day Marathon

Grambling

Efficiency #290

2025-26: 14-19 · 8-12 conf

N Illinois

Efficiency #341

2025-26: 9-21 · 4-14 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · 3:00 AM ET

71.6

win 61%

Projected

68.2

win 39%

No line posted yet.

Model: GRAM −3.3 · total 139.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: N Illinois 68.5, Grambling 68.4 → 68.6 possessions

+0.6

N Illinois offense vs Grambling defense

−6.2

Grambling offense vs N Illinois defense

−2.8

Projected total

139.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

N Illinois offense vs Grambling defense

−6.2

Grambling offense vs N Illinois defense

+2.8

Grambling by 3.3

3.3

Grambling side ◂▸ N Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −3.4 against −3.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Grambling is the faster team (69.4, #123 of 365) and N Illinois the slower (69.0, #149). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.8

model

Projected team totals

71.6 / 68.2

Grambling / N Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#174

Grambling

68.5#172

N Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN Illinois

Where N Illinois struggles: ball control

N Illinois turns it over on 21.8% of possessions (#360); Grambling forces turnovers on 20.8% of opponent possessions (#12). Expect about 22.2%, 5.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGrambling

Where Grambling struggles: ball control

Grambling turns it over on 21.2% of possessions (#357); N Illinois forces turnovers on 16.3% of opponent possessions (#205). Expect about 19.0%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (N Illinois) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Grambling at about 37.3% of its shots from three, N Illinois about 41.1%.

ClashN Illinois

Style clash: 3-point volume

N Illinois takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Grambling runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Grambling has the ball

OffenseN Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

48.8% #295

55.6% #342

+1.1 pt/100

21.2% #357

16.3% #205

-2.7 pt/100

30.3% #188

30.0% #161

-0.2 pt/100

41.1% #45

38.3% #267

+0.6 pt/100

72.9% #172

—

+0.0 pt/100

Grambling net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100

N Illinois has the ball

OffenseGrambling allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #324

50.0% #97

-4.0 pt/100

21.8% #360

20.8% #12

-6.7 pt/100

30.3% #187

32.5% #280

+0.6 pt/100

38.3% #95

40.0% #302

+0.6 pt/100

65.7% #356

—

-0.6 pt/100

N Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Gramblingoffense vsN Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Grambling shoots

41.6

5.1

15.0

38.4

N Illinois allows

44.0

4.6

13.3

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.0%#273	62.9%#323	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	26.0%#364	33.9%#42	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.9%#330	40.6%#259	38.0%
Three	32.3%#265	36.3%#315	33.7%

N Illinoisoffense vsGramblingdefense

Share of shots by zone

N Illinois shoots

41.7

3.7

8.9

45.7

Grambling allows

43.0

5.1

17.5

34.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	51.9%#350	56.4%#97	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	30.3%#16	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.8%#333	36.9%#126	38.0%
Three	30.9%#323	32.7%#99	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Grambling

−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#201 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#188

Def reb %

67.5%

#280

Turnover %

21.2%

#357

Forced TO %

20.8%

#12

FT rate

41.1%

#45

FT allowed

40.0%

#302

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−3.0

Forcing turnovers+2.8

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−1.2

N Illinois

−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#315 of 365

Off reb %

30.3%

#187

Def reb %

70.0%

#161

Turnover %

21.8%

#360

Forced TO %

16.3%

#205

FT rate

38.3%

#95

FT allowed

38.3%

#267

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−3.4

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Grambling has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#201 of 365) to N Illinois’s −3.5 (#315).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Grambling2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Roderick Coffee III	F	Sr	6'4"	31-31	33.5	10.9	4.6	4.2	2.6	50.4%	37.5%	3.9	75.3%	21.6%
0	Derrius Ward	G	Sr	6'6"	32-20	30.7	10.7	3.2	2.4	2.2	47.5%	33.3%	4.7	78.5%	23.4%
11	Jamil Muttilib	G	Sr	6'6"	33-23	26.9	12.1	3.4	0.5	1.2	52.8%	32.6%	5.3	82.4%	25.3%
3	Rickey Ballard	F	Sr	6'7"	33-22	22.3	7.1	2.7	0.9	0.8	54.7%	37.6%	4.0	75.4%	17.9%
15	Antonio Munoz	F	Fr	6'6"	28-21	24.8	12.5	3.5	2.0	2.5	47.4%	5.9%	0.6	66.3%	33.1%
21	Devyn Franklin	G	Sr	6'8"	33-23	19.2	4.8	4.5	0.7	1.2	42.0%	4.8%	0.6	68.8%	18.6%
5	Jimel Lane	F	Sr	6'7"	28-14	22.4	8.3	4.5	1.0	1.7	46.4%	21.4%	1.5	80.0%	24.3%
24	Randarius Jones	C	Sr	6'7"	20-7	15.6	5.0	3.1	0.5	1.1	48.7%	—	0.0	78.8%	21.3%
23	Mekhi Fitts	F	Jr	6'7"	23-3	10.7	3.3	2.5	0.3	1.0	64.4%	66.7%	0.1	58.1%	19.0%
10	Richard Amaefule	F	Sr	6'9"	14-0	8.2	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.7	35.0%	0.0%	0.1	87.5%	16.9%
7	Saliou Seye	F	Sr	7'0"	15-1	7.1	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	23.1%	22.0%
4	P.J. Edwards	G	Sr	6'4"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.4	21.1%	0.0%	0.8	100.0%	14.3%
20	Chancellor Perkins	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.9	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.4	52.9%	66.7%	0.4	100.0%	15.1%
2	Nazar Mahmoud	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	13.5	5.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	2.0	80.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Makhai Valentine	G	So	6'3"	29-29	30.7	13.3	5.3	1.0	1.2	53.1%	35.8%	6.7	81.3%	24.0%
0	Gianni Cobb	G	So	6'0"	30-19	29.0	9.8	2.7	3.9	2.4	46.2%	26.8%	2.4	59.8%	24.3%
6	Taj Walters	G	Fr	6'5"	29-23	27.1	8.5	5.4	0.6	1.3	52.4%	38.3%	2.8	78.3%	18.8%
96	Gustav Winther	F	Fr	6'10"	30-21	21.2	8.1	4.2	0.9	1.4	64.5%	42.9%	0.2	54.7%	21.2%
3	Daemar Kelly	G	Jr	6'5"	29-15	20.6	5.6	3.1	1.2	1.2	35.2%	25.6%	2.8	76.7%	21.9%
7	Hassan Washington	F	Jr	6'8"	29-14	16.6	4.7	3.2	0.6	1.9	59.9%	43.8%	0.6	44.4%	20.6%
10	Jao Ituka	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	14.1	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3	48.9%	34.4%	4.1	81.0%	27.4%
2	Carlos Coronado	G	Fr	6'3"	20-1	10.3	3.9	0.8	0.6	1.0	41.2%	20.8%	1.2	68.9%	26.2%
8	Ladji Kante	F	Fr	6'7"	17-0	9.2	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.6	43.8%	20.0%	0.9	65.0%	21.2%
23	Jaylen Wharton	F	Jr	6'9"	18-0	7.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.3	45.2%	—	0.0	42.1%	20.2%
11	Isaiah Washington	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	8.9	2.7	1.3	0.5	0.5	38.9%	11.1%	0.8	64.3%	22.3%
16	Isaiah Stewart	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.5	1.2	0.9	0.3	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	0.4	66.7%	11.0%
4	JJ Taylor	F	Jr	6'8"	3-2	21.0	8.7	2.7	0.3	3.0	41.7%	11.1%	3.0	68.8%	29.3%
21	Max Laskey	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	13.9%
15	Lataevyon Taylor	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grambling2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Roderick Coffee III	F	Sr	6'4"	31-31	33.5	10.9	4.6	4.2	2.6	50.4%	37.5%	3.9	75.3%	21.6%
0	Derrius Ward	G	Sr	6'6"	32-20	30.7	10.7	3.2	2.4	2.2	47.5%	33.3%	4.7	78.5%	23.4%
11	Jamil Muttilib	G	Sr	6'6"	33-23	26.9	12.1	3.4	0.5	1.2	52.8%	32.6%	5.3	82.4%	25.3%
3	Rickey Ballard	F	Sr	6'7"	33-22	22.3	7.1	2.7	0.9	0.8	54.7%	37.6%	4.0	75.4%	17.9%
15	Antonio Munoz	F	Fr	6'6"	28-21	24.8	12.5	3.5	2.0	2.5	47.4%	5.9%	0.6	66.3%	33.1%
21	Devyn Franklin	G	Sr	6'8"	33-23	19.2	4.8	4.5	0.7	1.2	42.0%	4.8%	0.6	68.8%	18.6%
5	Jimel Lane	F	Sr	6'7"	28-14	22.4	8.3	4.5	1.0	1.7	46.4%	21.4%	1.5	80.0%	24.3%
24	Randarius Jones	C	Sr	6'7"	20-7	15.6	5.0	3.1	0.5	1.1	48.7%	—	0.0	78.8%	21.3%
23	Mekhi Fitts	F	Jr	6'7"	23-3	10.7	3.3	2.5	0.3	1.0	64.4%	66.7%	0.1	58.1%	19.0%
10	Richard Amaefule	F	Sr	6'9"	14-0	8.2	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.7	35.0%	0.0%	0.1	87.5%	16.9%
7	Saliou Seye	F	Sr	7'0"	15-1	7.1	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	23.1%	22.0%
4	P.J. Edwards	G	Sr	6'4"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.4	21.1%	0.0%	0.8	100.0%	14.3%
20	Chancellor Perkins	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	5.9	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.4	52.9%	66.7%	0.4	100.0%	15.1%
2	Nazar Mahmoud	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	13.5	5.0	2.0	1.5	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	2.0	80.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Grambling

Against the spread

Season

13-16-2

Home

4-6

Road

6-9-2

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-20-1

Home

3-7

Road

5-11-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −2.1

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Jackson StAdjEM #353	N	L 65–68	−7.0	L−10.0	140.5	U133	94.7	99.1	68.6
Mar 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	N	W 77–52	−13.5	W+11.5	137.0	U129	116.2	78.5	66.2
Mar 5	Alabama StAdjEM #324	A	W 65–63	+2.5	W+4.5	145.5	U128	91.9	89.0	70.8
Mar 3	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	A	L 63–77	+2.0	L−12.0	140.0	P140	98.8	120.8	63.8
Feb 28	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 59–66	−5.0	L−12.0	141.0	U125	87.5	97.9	67.4
Feb 26	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	L 71–76	−1.0	L−6.0	144.0	O147	93.3	99.8	76.1
Feb 23	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 83–62	−16.0	W+5.0	137.0	O145	105.2	78.6	78.9
Feb 21	SouthernAdjEM #286	A	L 73–87	+5.5	L−8.5	143.0	O160	97.8	116.6	74.6
Feb 16	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 63–68	−2.5	L−7.5	152.0	U131	89.4	96.5	70.5
Feb 14	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 79–82	+1.0	L−2.0	140.0	O161	112.3	116.5	70.4

N Illinois

Against the spread

Season

13-15

Home

3-8

Road

10-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −10.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

8-20

Home

4-7

Road

4-13

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −4.7

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 9 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	AkronAdjEM #48	A	L 55–94	+23.5	L−15.5	156.0	U149	79.5	135.8	69.2
Mar 3	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	L 76–102	+10.0	L−16.0	149.5	O178	100.2	134.5	75.9
Feb 28	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 43–79	−1.5	L−37.5	133.5	U122	68.4	125.7	62.8
Feb 24	ToledoAdjEM #115	A	L 69–79	+12.5	W+2.5	150.0	U148	104.3	119.5	66.1
Feb 21	OhioAdjEM #233	H	L 66–74	+5.5	L−2.5	150.0	U140	102.2	114.6	64.6
Feb 17	BuffaloAdjEM #186	A	W 72–70	+8.5	W+10.5	147.5	U142	108.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	C MichiganAdjEM #283	A	L 46–88	+4.5	L−37.5	146.0	U134	67.4	128.9	68.3
Feb 11	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	L 52–68	+7.5	L−8.5	145.0	U120	74.6	97.6	69.7
Feb 7	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 75–74	+4.5	W+5.5	142.0	O149	104.8	103.4	71.6
Jan 31	#24Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 61–85	+17.0	L−7.0	155.5	U146	83.2	116.0	73.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

GramblingN Illinois

Efficiency

101.0

100.3

107.7

111.9

68.4

68.5

—

Shooting

48.8%

47.6%

48.9%

48.5%

32.3%

30.9%

72.9%

65.7%

41.1%

38.3%

Ball control & glass

21.2%

21.8%

20.8%

16.3%

30.3%

32.5%

30.0%

12.2%

11.7%

13.1%

14.5%

Style

38.1%

45.0%

41.9%

41.5%

16.5%

12.7%

51.6%

51.8%

32.7%

31.5%

Roster

3.60

1.91

6'6.2"

6'4.7"

—

86.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Grambling

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Grambling's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

N Illinois

Returning minutes: 86.8%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Dylan Ducommun 26.5 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Lataevyon Taylor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.