CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNewman Arena, Ithaca, NY
Pepperdine
Efficiency #307
2025-26: 9-23 · 4-15 conf
@
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · 6:00 PM ET
76.5
win 17%
Projected
87.6
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: COR −11.2 · total 164.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Cornell 70.9, Pepperdine 69.0 → 71.6 possessions
+7.1
Cornell offense vs Pepperdine defense
+7.9
Pepperdine offense vs Cornell defense
+0.9
Projected total
164.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Cornell offense vs Pepperdine defense
+7.9
Pepperdine offense vs Cornell defense
−0.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Cornell by 11.2
11.2
Pepperdine side ◂▸ Cornell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.1 against +11.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cornell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Pepperdine the slower (69.5, #116). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
164.1
model
Projected team totals
76.5 / 87.6
Pepperdine / Cornell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#124
Pepperdine
70.9#19
Cornell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Pepperdine allows 54.2% (#306). Expect about 57.0%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Cornell averages 71.3 possessions per 40, Pepperdine 69.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Pepperdine at about 38.5% of its shots from three, Cornell about 49.8%.
Pepperdine has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
47.6% #323
55.9% #343
+0.3 pt/100
18.3% #289
15.1% #279
+0.2 pt/100
29.1% #234
30.6% #187
-0.5 pt/100
33.8% #216
37.2% #244
+0.1 pt/100
75.8% #58
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pepperdine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
Cornell has the ball
OffensePepperdine allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
54.2% #306
+8.1 pt/100
16.0% #139
16.5% #182
+0.8 pt/100
30.2% #193
34.0% #318
+1.0 pt/100
30.2% #304
28.5% #35
-0.8 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Pepperdineoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.0%#29860.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.2%#17044.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25241.7%#29338.0%
Three31.4%#31037.5%#34933.7%
Cornelloffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
Pepperdine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7760.5%#25258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#749.1%#34939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3139.6%#22438.0%
Three38.3%#1435.5%#27633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Pepperdine
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#234
Def reb %
66.0%
#318
Turnover %
18.3%
#289
Forced TO %
16.5%
#182
FT rate
33.8%
#216
FT allowed
28.5%
#35
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5

Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#245 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Pepperdine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Styles PhippsGSo6'2"32-3234.013.45.95.22.845.1%27.0%2.378.5%26.7%
3Aaron ClarkGSo6'4"32-2632.315.33.42.72.850.0%36.1%5.276.9%29.9%
23Javon CooleyGSr6'5"32-2730.111.44.71.11.448.0%29.5%4.383.2%23.3%
35Danilo DozicCSo6'10"27-2631.311.32.71.51.352.2%36.3%4.677.0%21.3%
18Yonatan LevyFSo6'10"32-2820.55.24.21.71.451.1%31.9%1.576.2%17.3%
4Pavle StosicFSo6'9"31-1216.23.63.80.70.648.9%20.0%0.854.3%15.2%
14Stefan CicicCFr7'0"31-512.84.62.70.40.954.6%23.1%0.455.8%22.4%
77Luka VudragovicGFr6'6"31-412.03.71.20.30.545.3%24.6%2.284.6%21.3%
1David MagerGJr6'4"31-010.64.40.90.20.249.2%39.2%1.670.8%24.1%
33Nikola RadovanovicFFr6'9"17-05.01.41.10.40.253.6%25.0%0.266.7%16.0%
7Vladimir SudarFFr6'5"17-04.41.00.40.40.328.1%16.7%0.466.7%20.2%
9Pasha ShemiraniFFr6'5"17-04.10.50.60.10.134.6%33.3%0.5—11.6%
24Preston PhillipsFSr6'8"3-011.70.72.70.70.750.0%0.0%0.3—6.7%
25Anto BalianGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Ty VirgilGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Yassine GharramGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PepperdineCornell
Efficiency
103.9
116.2
111.8
114.3
69.0
70.9
—
—
Shooting
47.6%
58.5%
48.0%
59.7%
31.4%
38.3%
75.8%
74.1%
33.8%
30.2%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
16.0%
16.5%
15.1%
29.1%
30.2%
34.0%
30.6%
10.9%
9.1%
10.7%
9.6%
Style
39.2%
51.6%
40.5%
38.9%
9.4%
14.4%
56.2%
66.7%
27.8%
41.9%
Roster
2.21
3.37
6'6.3"
6'3.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Pepperdine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.