CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteBenchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
Florida A&M
Efficiency #316
2025-26: 15-16 · 12-8 conf
vs
Florida St
Efficiency #74
2025-26: 18-15 · 11-9 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · 8:30 PM ET
70.0
win 17%
Projected
81.0
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: FSU −10.9 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida St 70.5, Florida A&M 68.8 → 71.0 possessions
+5.9
Florida St offense vs Florida A&M defense
+3.9
Florida A&M offense vs Florida St defense
−7.0
Projected total
151.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Florida St offense vs Florida A&M defense
+3.9
Florida A&M offense vs Florida St defense
+7.0
Florida St by 10.9
10.9
Florida A&M side ◂▸ Florida St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida St is the faster team (71.8, #27 of 365) and Florida A&M the slower (70.3, #81). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.0
model
Projected team totals
70.0 / 81.0
Florida A&M / Florida St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#135
Florida A&M
70.5#26
Florida St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageFlorida A&M
Where Florida A&M struggles: ball control
Florida A&M turns it over on 21.5% of possessions (#359); Florida St forces turnovers on 19.0% of opponent possessions (#52). Expect about 20.9%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Florida St averages 71.8 possessions per 40, Florida A&M 70.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashFlorida St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Florida St takes 50.6% of its shots from three; Florida A&M runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
DefenseFlorida A&M
Florida A&M's ball-hawking
Florida A&M ranks #38 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.7% of Florida St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Florida A&M has the ball
OffenseFlorida St allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #283
52.2% #226
-1.0 pt/100
21.5% #359
19.0% #52
-5.1 pt/100
30.9% #168
34.1% #319
+1.3 pt/100
37.4% #116
32.7% #122
-0.0 pt/100
70.3% #264
—
-0.2 pt/100
Florida A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100
Florida St has the ball
OffenseFlorida A&M allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #132
51.2% #171
+0.8 pt/100
15.2% #83
19.1% #43
-0.8 pt/100
30.8% #170
30.9% #198
+0.3 pt/100
34.7% #191
39.6% #299
+0.3 pt/100
71.3% #231
—
-0.1 pt/100
Florida St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Florida A&Moffense vsFlorida Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida A&M shoots
Florida St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.7%#20860.2%#23658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.0%#30338.8%#15439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.9%#34738.8%#19438.0%
Three32.6%#24934.6%#22833.7%
Florida Stoffense vsFlorida A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida St shoots
Florida A&M allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.5%#10957.1%#11558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.1%#2043.8%#26539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24133.3%#3538.0%
Three33.1%#22634.9%#24333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Florida A&M
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#272 of 365
Off reb %
30.9%
#168
Def reb %
69.1%
#198
Turnover %
21.5%
#359
Forced TO %
19.1%
#43
FT rate
37.4%
#116
FT allowed
39.6%
#299
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−3.3
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.1
Florida St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#170
Def reb %
65.9%
#319
Turnover %
15.2%
#83
Forced TO %
19.0%
#52
FT rate
34.7%
#191
FT allowed
32.7%
#122
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.6

Florida St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#89 of 365) to Florida A&M’s −2.0 (#272).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Florida A&M2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Florida A&M's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Jaquan SandersGSr6'4"30-2631.811.73.13.62.449.6%34.1%5.883.7%23.7%
22Tyler ShirleyFSr6'8"31-3130.512.05.12.02.847.5%31.1%2.978.3%27.1%
2Jordan ChatmanGSr6'4"31-2326.59.13.21.11.254.3%36.9%5.176.0%19.4%
1Antonio Baker Jr.GJr6'3"29-1727.09.93.61.91.947.4%24.4%1.483.8%23.9%
11Micah OctaveGSr6'5"22-1932.610.08.11.92.058.3%38.0%3.663.8%18.2%
10Kaleb WashingtonFSr6'8"28-720.58.53.11.42.047.5%33.3%1.577.3%28.1%
34Miles NdalamaCJr6'11"25-2522.97.44.50.81.758.9%0.0%0.048.8%20.6%
4Anquan Boldin JrGJr6'4"22-518.15.83.00.91.250.5%21.1%0.947.5%21.2%
0Lenard Taylor Jr.GSr6'2"20-09.21.81.40.10.732.1%20.0%0.850.0%18.6%
12Anthony KnowlesGFr6'0"18-18.72.00.80.40.728.7%20.6%1.975.0%23.5%
13Devere Palmer JrGJr6'6"4-117.07.83.51.00.545.0%—0.065.0%24.7%
55Tuscan OnuohaFJr6'11"4-05.02.50.30.00.562.5%0.0%0.30.0%31.7%
14Malcolm StuteGFr6'4"9-02.00.00.10.20.00.0%0.0%0.10.0%10.3%
8Amir RahmanGFr6'3"8-01.40.60.00.00.150.0%0.0%0.150.0%29.2%
23Jacobi HallFFr6'7"1-02.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Florida A&MFlorida St
Efficiency
100.7
113.0
109.5
106.4
68.8
70.5
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
52.3%
49.4%
55.1%
32.6%
33.1%
70.3%
71.3%
37.4%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
21.5%
15.2%
19.1%
19.0%
30.9%
30.8%
30.9%
34.1%
12.5%
9.4%
9.7%
12.8%
Style
37.7%
50.6%
44.1%
39.3%
14.2%
12.4%
52.6%
52.5%
29.4%
34.4%
Roster
3.61
3.28
6'5.5"
6'7.4"
—
6.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Florida A&M
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Florida A&M's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Florida St
Returning minutes: 6.3%Returning production: 4.9%
Lost
  • Lajae Jones 29.5 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Robert McCray V 28.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chauncey Wiggins 27.1 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Martin Somerville 26.0 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kobe MaGee 19.8 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Thomas Bassong 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
  • Kam Taylor from UNC Asheville · 34.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg last season
  • Anthony Robinson II from Missouri · 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Sebastian Rancik from Colorado · 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
  • Cooper Schwieger from Wake Forest · 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg last season
  • Shon Abaev from Cincinnati · 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Elise Assui no D1 minutes last season

Returns 6% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.