CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Ohio
Efficiency #233
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-10 conf
@
South Alabama
Efficiency #188
2025-26: 21-12 · 11-8 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
70.9
win 32%
Projected
76.4
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: USA −5.5 · total 147.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: South Alabama 66.5, Ohio 69.4 → 67.6 possessions
−1.7
South Alabama offense vs Ohio defense
+1.1
Ohio offense vs South Alabama defense
−0.5
Projected total
147.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
South Alabama offense vs Ohio defense
+1.1
Ohio offense vs South Alabama defense
+0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
South Alabama by 5.5
5.5
Ohio side ◂▸ South Alabama side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.1 against a projected 147.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Alabama.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Ohio is the faster team (70.4, #79 of 365) and South Alabama the slower (65.7, #307). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.2
model
Projected team totals
70.9 / 76.4
Ohio / South Alabama
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.4#93
Ohio
66.5#320
South Alabama

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSouth Alabama
Where South Alabama scores: ball control
South Alabama turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#6); Ohio forces turnovers on 16.1% of opponent possessions (#217). Expect about 14.2%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashOhio
Style clash: ball movement
Ohio creates off the dribble (assists on 46.6% of its baskets); South Alabama allows assists on 71.1% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashSouth Alabama
Style match: ball movement
South Alabama creates off the dribble (assists on 45.9% of its baskets); Ohio breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.1% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Ohio, Ohio's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Ohio at about 54.6% of its shots from three, South Alabama about 33.3%.
GlassSouth Alabama
South Alabama gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against South Alabama's offense.
DefenseSouth Alabama
South Alabama's ball-hawking
South Alabama ranks #28 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.6% of Ohio's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Ohio has the ball
OffenseSouth Alabama allowsvs D1 avg
50.9% #197
50.1% #105
-1.1 pt/100
15.5% #101
18.1% #92
-0.1 pt/100
28.4% #248
31.4% #222
-0.6 pt/100
36.9% #132
25.4% #8
-0.6 pt/100
71.0% #237
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ohio net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100
South Alabama has the ball
OffenseOhio allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #120
53.0% #269
+2.4 pt/100
13.0% #6
16.1% #217
+3.2 pt/100
25.0% #341
32.8% #289
-1.6 pt/100
38.5% #89
38.2% #266
+0.4 pt/100
65.5% #357
—
-0.6 pt/100
South Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Ohiooffense vsSouth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio shoots
South Alabama allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.2%#8758.9%#18458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.9%#8334.4%#5039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.6%#1934.4%#5738.0%
Three30.1%#34133.1%#13333.7%
South Alabamaoffense vsOhiodefense
Share of shots by zone
South Alabama shoots
Ohio allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#15958.6%#16958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.9%#6639.8%#18939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28138.8%#19238.0%
Three34.5%#14636.8%#34033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Ohio
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#236 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#248
Def reb %
67.2%
#289
Turnover %
15.5%
#101
Forced TO %
16.1%
#217
FT rate
36.9%
#132
FT allowed
38.2%
#266
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8
South Alabama
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#25 of 365
Off reb %
25.0%
#341
Def reb %
68.6%
#222
Turnover %
13.0%
#6
Forced TO %
18.1%
#92
FT rate
38.5%
#89
FT allowed
25.4%
#8
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+2.6
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+2.5

South Alabama has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#25 of 365) to Ohio’s −1.1 (#236).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Ohio2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Ohio's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
13Jackson PaveletzkeGSr6'2"31-3136.717.33.05.32.351.1%31.6%3.280.5%26.4%
10Aidan HadawayFSr6'8"32-3231.814.47.42.11.954.3%30.1%4.669.7%26.3%
0Ajay SheldonGSr6'1"32-3030.87.52.41.91.250.9%37.1%5.670.0%15.3%
1Javan SimmonsFJr6'7"31-3127.115.15.71.61.754.6%20.0%1.068.5%30.4%
4JJ KellyGFr6'6"31-2626.68.63.80.60.958.0%32.9%2.477.3%17.2%
22Jalen BreathFSr6'8"28-113.43.73.00.40.852.9%0.0%0.041.7%18.8%
3Dior ConnersGSr6'3"31-311.54.21.20.70.642.2%27.5%2.978.8%24.4%
6Elijah ElliottGSo6'3"13-521.54.13.52.01.234.2%22.7%1.763.6%16.7%
17Kiir KuanyFFr6'9"31-18.93.51.40.20.357.2%24.1%0.973.7%20.5%
21Jesse BurrisGFr6'5"23-010.43.51.30.20.545.0%28.6%2.190.0%23.1%
5Ayden EvansFSo6'10"11-08.32.31.10.30.347.7%16.7%0.566.7%17.5%
24Jordan FisherFFr6'5"5-04.43.80.40.20.253.6%20.0%1.066.7%46.5%
11Carter ReeseGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Chase BoalsFFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Zay MosleyFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
OhioSouth Alabama
Efficiency
108.0
107.5
111.1
108.3
69.4
66.5
—
—
Shooting
50.9%
52.6%
54.5%
53.2%
30.1%
34.5%
71.0%
65.5%
36.9%
38.5%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
13.0%
16.1%
18.1%
28.4%
25.0%
32.8%
31.4%
8.5%
8.3%
7.5%
11.3%
Style
38.1%
36.5%
45.2%
47.3%
9.2%
13.8%
46.6%
45.9%
23.8%
25.6%
Roster
3.12
3.43
6'4.9"
6'4.6"
—
83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Ohio
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Ohio's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Alabama
Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 83.6%
Lost
  • Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
  • Samuel Shoptaw no D1 minutes last season
  • Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.