CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Coastal.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, E Michigan is the faster team (68.3, #184 of 365) and Coastal the slower (68.3, #189). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#129 | 48.8%#3 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.4%#259 | 45.2%#302 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 32.5%#338 | 38.9%#198 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#258 | 32.8%#105 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#324 | 57.0%#112 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.3%#215 | 35.7%#82 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.6%#245 | 42.0%#304 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.5%#196 | 32.9%#111 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCoastal has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.7 (#291 of 365) to E Michigan’s −3.0 (#305).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mohammad Habhab | F | So | 6'10" | 30-30 | 36.0 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 41.1% | 22.2% | 1.2 | 74.3% | 28.6% | |
| 3 | Jabri Fitzpatrickat New Haven | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-30 | 34.5 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 50.0% | 29.8% | 3.9 | 74.5% | 28.7% | |
| 2 | Emanuel Richardsat Longwood | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 26.0 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 48.4% | 32.1% | 2.4 | 73.5% | 23.6% | |
| 14 | Kilian Brockhoffat William & Mary | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 54.1% | 32.3% | 4.0 | 75.0% | 28.7% | |
| 5 | Braelon Green | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-14 | 20.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 49.2% | 36.4% | 1.6 | 56.5% | 15.9% | |
| 0 | Gregory Lawson II | G | So | 6'3" | 28-12 | 17.9 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 52.3% | 43.2% | 3.1 | 90.0% | 23.5% | |
| 8 | Sencire Harrisat Cincinnati | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-8 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 40.5% | 18.2% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 24.1% | |
| 44 | Aviv Aronov | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | DaCory Porter | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Jaiden Martin | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Jordan Wright | F | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Kaden Johnson | F | Sr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Max Booher | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Omar Suleiman | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rasheed Jones | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 36.2 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 49.1% | 36.7% | 6.1 | 80.7% | 24.8% | |
| 0 | AJ Dancler | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.2 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 49.6% | 39.3% | 6.3 | 75.7% | 28.5% | |
| 5 | Joshua Beadle | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.2 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 46.2% | 26.3% | 3.7 | 79.7% | 35.8% | |
| 21 | Reggie Hill | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 25.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 45.3% | 35.1% | 3.6 | 72.1% | 19.2% | |
| 4 | Nadjrick Peat | F | Sr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 23.1 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 68.6% | — | 0.0 | 63.5% | 10.6% | |
| 1 | Tristan Thompson | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 43.2% | 16.1% | 1.0 | 65.1% | 14.9% | |
| 3 | DaJohn Craig | G | So | 6'1" | 32-0 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 37.2% | 2.9 | 88.9% | 20.9% | |
| 15 | Derrick Green | F | So | 6'9" | 31-0 | 10.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 65.7% | — | 0.0 | 43.2% | 12.4% | |
| 14 | Jerry Ngopot | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 41.4% | 28.1% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 19.2% | |
| 13 | Braeden MacVicar | F | So | 6'11" | 23-0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 43.3% | 29.6% | 2.3 | 68.8% | 25.1% | |
| 11 | Jackson Keil | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 30 | Charles Dunlap | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 8.1% | |
| 20 | Connor Martin | F | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 17.7% | |
| 7 | Andre Mulibea | G | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Devin Brown | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mohammad Habhab | F | So | 6'10" | 30-30 | 36.0 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 41.1% | 22.2% | 1.2 | 74.3% | 28.6% | |
| 3 | Jabri Fitzpatrickat New Haven | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-30 | 34.5 | 15.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 50.0% | 29.8% | 3.9 | 74.5% | 28.7% | |
| 2 | Emanuel Richardsat Longwood | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 26.0 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 48.4% | 32.1% | 2.4 | 73.5% | 23.6% | |
| 14 | Kilian Brockhoffat William & Mary | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 21.7 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 54.1% | 32.3% | 4.0 | 75.0% | 28.7% | |
| 5 | Braelon Green | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-14 | 20.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 49.2% | 36.4% | 1.6 | 56.5% | 15.9% | |
| 0 | Gregory Lawson II | G | So | 6'3" | 28-12 | 17.9 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 52.3% | 43.2% | 3.1 | 90.0% | 23.5% | |
| 8 | Sencire Harrisat Cincinnati | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-8 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 40.5% | 18.2% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 24.1% | |
| 44 | Aviv Aronov | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | DaCory Porter | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Jaiden Martin | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Jordan Wright | F | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Kaden Johnson | F | Sr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Max Booher | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Omar Suleiman | F | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Bowling Green | H | L 69–77 | +5.0 | L−3.0 | 143.0 | O146 | 96.9 | 108.2 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Buffalo | A | L 67–72 | +5.5 | W+0.5 | 143.0 | U139 | 100.7 | 108.2 | 66.5 |
| Feb 24 | #21Miami OH | H | L 64–74 | +9.0 | L−1.0 | 152.5 | U138 | 89.5 | 103.5 | 71.5 |
| Feb 21 | Toledo | A | L 75–94 | +8.5 | L−10.5 | 147.0 | O169 | 105.2 | 131.9 | 71.3 |
| Feb 17 | C Michigan | H | W 66–54 | −5.0 | W+7.0 | 143.0 | U120 | 99.5 | 81.4 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | W Michigan | H | L 62–76 | −6.5 | L−20.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 96.0 | 117.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | Kent State | A | L 91–95 | +10.0 | W+6.0 | 144.5 | O186 | 129.6 | 135.3 | 70.2 |
| Feb 7 | App State | A | L 60–65 | +7.5 | W+2.5 | 131.0 | U125 | 92.9 | 100.7 | 64.6 |
| Feb 3 | Akron | H | L 64–66 | +12.5 | W+10.5 | 153.0 | U130 | 92.2 | 95.1 | 69.4 |
| Jan 31 | UMass | A | L 67–70 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 149.0 | U137 | 102.9 | 107.5 | 65.1 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | GA Southern | N | L 72–96 | −1.0 | L−25.0 | 150.5 | O168 | 105.7 | 140.9 | 68.1 |
| Feb 27 | James Madison | A | W 69–68 | +6.0 | W+7.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 108.6 | 107.0 | 63.5 |
| Feb 24 | Georgia St | A | W 76–71 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 141.0 | O147 | 113.3 | 105.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 21 | Marshall | H | W 79–75 | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 153.5 | O154 | 104.8 | 99.5 | 75.3 |
| Feb 18 | James Madison | H | L 65–67 | +1.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 99.1 | 102.2 | 65.6 |
| Feb 12 | Louisiana | A | W 69–65 | −1.0 | W+3.0 | 132.0 | O134 | 98.7 | 93.0 | 69.9 |
| Feb 7 | UMass | H | W 94–91 3OT | +2.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | O185 | 112.2 | 108.6 | 83.8 |
| Feb 4 | Arkansas St | H | L 66–70 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 151.5 | U136 | 94.3 | 100.0 | 70.0 |
| Feb 1 | UL Monroe | A | W 83–79 | −9.0 | L−5.0 | 145.0 | O162 | 124.4 | 118.4 | 66.7 |
| Jan 29 | South Alabama | A | L 48–53 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 140.0 | U101 | 80.0 | 88.3 | 60.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Addison Patterson 29.7 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Godslove Nwabude 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Carlos Hart 18.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jon Sanders II 14.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mak Manciel 13.0 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mehki Ellison 11.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jabri Fitzpatrick from New Haven · 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg last season
- Emanuel Richards from Longwood · 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Kilian Brockhoff from William & Mary · 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Sencire Harris from Cincinnati · 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Omar Suleiman no D1 minutes last season
- Aviv Aronov no D1 minutes last season
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.