CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUnited Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX

Jackson St

Efficiency #353

2025-26: 12-21 · 11-9 conf

Texas Tech

Efficiency #21

2025-26: 23-11 · 12-7 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

64.0

win 2%

Projected

88.1

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: TTU −24.1 · total 152.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Texas Tech 67.5, Jackson St 69.8 → 69.0 possessions

+1.4

Texas Tech offense vs Jackson St defense

+11.3

Jackson St offense vs Texas Tech defense

−8.8

Projected total

152.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Texas Tech offense vs Jackson St defense

+11.3

Jackson St offense vs Texas Tech defense

+8.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Texas Tech by 24.1

24.1

Jackson St side ◂▸ Texas Tech side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Texas Tech.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Jackson St is the faster team (71.0, #51 of 365) and Texas Tech the slower (67.9, #206). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.1

model

Projected team totals

64.0 / 88.1

Jackson St / Texas Tech

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#65

Jackson St

67.5#250

Texas Tech

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageJackson St

Where Jackson St struggles: shooting

Jackson St shoots an effective 45.7% (#354); Texas Tech allows 49.7% (#86). Expect about 47.2%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageTexas Tech

Where Texas Tech scores: shooting

Texas Tech shoots an effective 56.1% (#21); Jackson St allows 53.0% (#267). Expect about 55.0%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.

GlassTexas Tech

Texas Tech owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.7% is worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions for Texas Tech's offense.

ClashJackson St

Style match: ball movement

Jackson St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); Texas Tech breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.1% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Texas Tech) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jackson St at about 40.2% of its shots from three, Texas Tech about 46.1%.

ClashJackson St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Jackson St takes 43.3% of its shots from three; Texas Tech runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Jackson St has the ball

OffenseTexas Tech allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #354

49.7% #86

-5.8 pt/100

19.4% #336

14.8% #304

-0.3 pt/100

29.7% #215

30.6% #186

-0.2 pt/100

37.4% #117

31.4% #89

-0.1 pt/100

75.8% #55

—

+0.3 pt/100

Jackson St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.2 pts/100

Texas Tech has the ball

OffenseJackson St allowsvs D1 avg

56.1% #21

53.0% #267

+5.2 pt/100

15.8% #123

16.5% #185

+0.9 pt/100

33.2% #82

37.2% #359

+3.2 pt/100

27.7% #347

41.9% #319

+0.1 pt/100

71.5% #222

—

-0.1 pt/100

Texas Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Jackson Stoffense vsTexas Techdefense

Share of shots by zone

Jackson St shoots

31.3

5.4

20.2

43.1

Texas Tech allows

31.6

10.7

22.4

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.1%#348	63.4%#331	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.0%#121	38.1%#140	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.4%#305	39.3%#213	38.0%
Three	31.4%#311	32.1%#67	33.7%

Texas Techoffense vsJackson Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Texas Tech shoots

25.6

9.7

16.7

48.1

Jackson St allows

40.9

5.8

13.8

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.5%#46	60.9%#266	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#33	29.3%#12	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#56	31.1%#11	38.0%
Three	39.1%#4	34.8%#236	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Jackson St

−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#215

Def reb %

62.8%

#359

Turnover %

19.4%

#336

Forced TO %

16.5%

#185

FT rate

37.4%

#117

FT allowed

41.9%

#319

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Texas Tech

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#202 of 365

Off reb %

33.2%

#82

Def reb %

69.4%

#186

Turnover %

15.8%

#123

Forced TO %

14.8%

#304

FT rate

27.7%

#347

FT allowed

31.4%

#89

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.9

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Texas Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#202 of 365) to Jackson St’s −5.4 (#350).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jackson St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jayme Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	32.8	14.5	4.9	0.9	2.3	47.3%	33.2%	5.9	78.7%	27.5%
24	Daeshun Ruffin	G	Sr	5'10"	28-28	33.5	23.3	2.8	5.3	3.8	47.2%	30.9%	5.0	84.3%	41.5%
1	Dorian McMillian	G	So	6'3"	28-24	29.5	11.9	4.4	1.4	2.1	47.2%	32.8%	6.2	75.0%	26.4%
4	Devin Ree	F	Sr	6'9"	33-18	20.8	5.4	3.0	0.7	0.9	43.6%	27.6%	3.0	88.2%	17.9%
0	Tamarion Hoover	G	So	6'4"	30-4	19.8	5.9	3.1	0.3	0.5	52.4%	34.7%	3.9	87.5%	16.6%
12	Delyle Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	31-5	17.2	2.9	2.4	1.3	1.2	33.5%	25.6%	1.4	60.0%	16.3%
20	Raevon Thomas	F	Sr	6'9"	25-15	17.6	3.3	3.3	0.3	0.8	59.5%	38.9%	0.7	56.0%	11.7%
8	Dionjahe Thomas	F	Jr	6'8"	23-19	18.4	5.1	5.3	0.4	1.2	48.3%	33.3%	0.1	56.4%	19.0%
2	Jalen Tatum	G	Jr	6'4"	11-6	26.5	7.7	2.6	1.8	1.6	39.8%	41.7%	1.1	63.0%	21.0%
21	Kobe Butler	F	Fr	6'7"	27-4	10.4	1.8	1.8	0.1	0.4	39.6%	0.0%	0.1	83.3%	12.8%
10	Ebo Wilson	C	So	6'10"	18-7	10.8	0.7	2.1	0.2	0.7	28.6%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.3%
11	Mike Williams	G	Fr	6'2"	8-3	19.9	5.5	2.3	0.8	2.0	28.4%	15.0%	2.5	83.3%	26.6%
9	Deyan Kolev	F	Fr	6'9"	17-1	7.5	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.4	33.3%	18.2%	0.6	50.0%	12.8%
7	Kedrick Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	8-0	11.0	1.6	1.8	0.5	0.5	40.0%	25.0%	1.0	50.0%	12.5%
13	Cael Jones	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.0	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.2	0.0%	19.5%
5	Keiveon Hunt	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Texas Tech2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jaylen Petty	G	Fr	6'1"	33-22	30.4	9.9	3.9	2.2	0.9	53.3%	37.5%	5.6	77.1%	19.1%
3	LeJuan Watts	F	Jr	6'6"	33-28	27.3	11.8	6.0	2.4	2.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	76.9%	29.2%
15	JT Toppin	F	Jr	6'9"	25-25	34.8	21.8	10.8	2.1	2.5	56.7%	28.1%	2.3	57.9%	36.2%
1	Tyeree Bryan	G	Sr	6'5"	33-13	17.1	3.5	2.5	0.6	0.3	45.0%	28.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Luke Bamgboye	F	So	6'11"	21-12	16.5	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.6	50.8%	0.0%	0.1	71.1%	16.7%
6	Leon Horner	G	So	6'4"	23-0	9.0	2.8	2.0	0.2	0.3	50.0%	36.4%	0.5	86.7%	19.0%
5	Josiah Moseley	F	So	6'8"	14-0	13.9	5.5	3.6	0.5	0.6	71.6%	50.0%	0.4	36.4%	20.3%
8	Nolan Groves	G	Fr	6'5"	21-2	6.4	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	23.5%	0.8	58.3%	11.6%
13	Marial Akuentok	F	Fr	6'11"	15-1	5.9	1.1	1.7	0.2	0.4	54.2%	100.0%	0.1	30.8%	15.9%
10	Jack Francis	G	Sr	6'3"	13-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	8.9%
21	LaTrell Hoover	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Jackson St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jayme Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	32.8	14.5	4.9	0.9	2.3	47.3%	33.2%	5.9	78.7%	27.5%
24	Daeshun Ruffin	G	Sr	5'10"	28-28	33.5	23.3	2.8	5.3	3.8	47.2%	30.9%	5.0	84.3%	41.5%
1	Dorian McMillian	G	So	6'3"	28-24	29.5	11.9	4.4	1.4	2.1	47.2%	32.8%	6.2	75.0%	26.4%
4	Devin Ree	F	Sr	6'9"	33-18	20.8	5.4	3.0	0.7	0.9	43.6%	27.6%	3.0	88.2%	17.9%
0	Tamarion Hoover	G	So	6'4"	30-4	19.8	5.9	3.1	0.3	0.5	52.4%	34.7%	3.9	87.5%	16.6%
12	Delyle Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	31-5	17.2	2.9	2.4	1.3	1.2	33.5%	25.6%	1.4	60.0%	16.3%
20	Raevon Thomas	F	Sr	6'9"	25-15	17.6	3.3	3.3	0.3	0.8	59.5%	38.9%	0.7	56.0%	11.7%
8	Dionjahe Thomas	F	Jr	6'8"	23-19	18.4	5.1	5.3	0.4	1.2	48.3%	33.3%	0.1	56.4%	19.0%
2	Jalen Tatum	G	Jr	6'4"	11-6	26.5	7.7	2.6	1.8	1.6	39.8%	41.7%	1.1	63.0%	21.0%
21	Kobe Butler	F	Fr	6'7"	27-4	10.4	1.8	1.8	0.1	0.4	39.6%	0.0%	0.1	83.3%	12.8%
10	Ebo Wilson	C	So	6'10"	18-7	10.8	0.7	2.1	0.2	0.7	28.6%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.3%
11	Mike Williams	G	Fr	6'2"	8-3	19.9	5.5	2.3	0.8	2.0	28.4%	15.0%	2.5	83.3%	26.6%
9	Deyan Kolev	F	Fr	6'9"	17-1	7.5	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.4	33.3%	18.2%	0.6	50.0%	12.8%
7	Kedrick Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	8-0	11.0	1.6	1.8	0.5	0.5	40.0%	25.0%	1.0	50.0%	12.5%
13	Cael Jones	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.0	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.2	0.0%	19.5%
5	Keiveon Hunt	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Jackson St

Against the spread

Season

12-20-1

Home

6-3-1

Road

5-14

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16-1

Home

6-3-1

Road

8-11

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total +0.2

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	N	L 60–70	+6.5	L−3.5	142.5	U130	85.7	100.0	70.0
Mar 10	GramblingAdjEM #290	N	W 68–65	+7.0	W+10.0	140.5	U133	99.1	94.7	68.6
Mar 5	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 85–77	−11.5	L−3.5	145.0	O162	128.8	116.7	66.0
Mar 3	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	W 81–78	+1.0	W+4.0	153.0	O159	116.8	112.5	69.3
Feb 28	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 57–82	+6.0	L−19.0	152.0	U139	80.3	115.5	71.0
Feb 26	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 76–85 OT	+4.5	L−4.5	161.5	U161	102.1	114.2	74.4
Feb 21	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	A	L 65–83	+1.0	L−17.0	149.0	U148	90.7	115.8	71.7
Feb 16	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 91–86	+5.0	W+10.0	150.0	O177	118.0	111.5	77.2
Feb 14	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	W 80–60	+2.0	W+22.0	144.0	U140	115.2	86.4	69.4
Feb 9	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 63–84	+6.5	L−14.5	156.5	U147	96.1	128.1	65.5

Texas Tech

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

9-7

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#4AlabamaAdjEM #18	N	L 65–90	+1.0	L−24.0	164.5	U155	93.8	129.9	69.3
Mar 20	#12AkronAdjEM #48	N	W 91–71	−6.5	W+13.5	154.0	O162	139.4	108.8	65.3
Mar 12	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 53–75	+5.5	L−16.5	143.5	U128	81.9	115.9	64.7
Mar 7	BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 76–82	+3.0	L−3.0	159.5	U158	124.8	134.6	60.9
Mar 3	TCUAdjEM #51	H	L 65–73	−8.0	L−16.0	148.5	U138	101.6	114.1	64.0
Feb 28	#4Iowa StateAdjEM #7	A	W 82–73	+9.5	W+18.5	145.0	O155	127.1	113.1	64.5
Feb 24	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	W 80–68	−6.5	W+5.5	143.5	O148	131.5	111.8	60.8
Feb 21	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 100–72	−12.5	W+15.5	158.5	O172	144.9	104.3	69.0
Feb 17	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 67–72	−7.5	L−12.5	155.5	U139	101.3	108.9	66.1
Feb 14	#1ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	W 78–75 OT	+9.5	W+12.5	156.0	U153	110.8	106.6	70.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Jackson StTexas Tech

Efficiency

101.0

117.7

115.6

103.2

69.8

67.5

—

Shooting

45.7%

56.1%

44.6%

53.9%

31.4%

39.1%

75.8%

71.5%

37.4%

27.7%

Ball control & glass

19.4%

15.8%

16.5%

14.8%

29.7%

33.2%

37.2%

30.6%

11.1%

8.9%

12.4%

7.7%

Style

43.3%

47.6%

34.3%

36.6%

15.2%

8.6%

45.8%

55.0%

32.0%

20.5%

Roster

2.87

2.40

6'4.6"

6'5.8"

—

63.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jackson St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Texas Tech

Returning minutes: 63.4%Returning production: 60.4%

Lost

Christian Anderson 37.3 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Donovan Atwell 34.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jazz Henderson Jr. 1.5 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

LaTrell Hoover no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.