CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Lafayette

Efficiency #319

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

68.6

win 12%

Projected

82.1

win 88%

No line posted yet.

Model: BTLR −13.6 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Butler 69.3, Lafayette 68.0 → 69.0 possessions

+1.4

Butler offense vs Lafayette defense

+5.3

Lafayette offense vs Butler defense

−4.2

Projected total

150.7

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Butler offense vs Lafayette defense

+5.3

Lafayette offense vs Butler defense

+4.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Butler by 13.6

13.6

Lafayette side ◂▸ Butler side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +13.5 against +13.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Butler.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and Lafayette the slower (66.9, #248). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.7

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 82.1

Lafayette / Butler

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.0#214

Lafayette

69.3#97

Butler

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLafayette

Where Lafayette scores: ball control

Lafayette turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#90); Butler forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#275). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashButler

Style match: ball movement

Butler assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; Lafayette allows assists on 59.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.8% — both habits push the same way.

GlassLafayette

Lafayette gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.0% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Lafayette's offense.

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: ball control

Butler turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#132); Lafayette forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#276). Expect about 15.2%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

Lafayette has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #278

51.9% #208

-1.2 pt/100

15.3% #90

15.1% #275

+2.3 pt/100

25.8% #326

30.0% #163

-2.1 pt/100

32.4% #249

24.9% #6

-0.9 pt/100

68.9% #303

—

-0.3 pt/100

Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100

Butler has the ball

OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

53.6% #286

+1.4 pt/100

15.9% #132

15.1% #276

+1.9 pt/100

34.6% #58

28.6% #88

+1.2 pt/100

42.1% #29

30.6% #76

+0.1 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Lafayetteoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Lafayette shoots

41.6

5.2

13.5

39.7

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#231	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#152	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.9%#331	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	32.2%#273	33.3%#141	33.7%

Butleroffense vsLafayettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

Lafayette allows

37.2

8.3

16.3

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	62.6%#314	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	41.5%#224	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	37.7%#152	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	36.0%#298	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Lafayette

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365

Off reb %

25.8%

#326

Def reb %

71.4%

#88

Turnover %

15.3%

#90

Forced TO %

15.1%

#276

FT rate

32.4%

#249

FT allowed

30.6%

#76

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to Lafayette’s −0.4 (#194).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Lafayette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Andrew Phillips	G	So	6'4"	32-32	33.4	13.9	4.6	1.3	1.1	48.1%	31.1%	6.5	71.3%	26.3%
1	Caleb Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	31-31	32.7	16.1	3.6	3.2	2.2	48.3%	33.2%	7.4	87.9%	31.1%
22	Christian Humphrey-Rembert	F	Fr	—	32-31	30.1	7.7	6.6	0.5	0.7	52.4%	37.2%	4.9	66.0%	15.6%
44	Shareef Jackson	F	Fr	6'8"	30-30	22.1	10.0	5.0	1.6	2.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	52.4%	29.6%
0	Ryan Pettit	G	Jr	6'2"	28-3	20.8	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.7	52.0%	25.0%	1.4	58.3%	16.9%
13	Misha Bednostin	C	So	6'11"	28-0	10.0	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.6	57.7%	—	0.0	55.6%	11.1%
2	KaiMani Murdock	G	So	6'6"	25-0	10.6	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	49.3%	33.3%	2.5	33.3%	19.1%
34	Luke Bevilacqua	F	Fr	6'11"	25-1	9.1	2.8	1.6	0.5	1.1	58.5%	—	0.0	55.0%	22.1%
24	Folabomi Fayemi	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	6.1	1.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	31.5%	16.7%	0.4	44.4%	21.2%
23	Joshua Wyche	G	So	6'7"	11-0	6.9	0.6	1.6	0.3	0.2	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	25.0%	9.7%
20	Ashton Wallace	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.0%
14	Malik Rasul	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	6.0	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.6	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.4%
11	Luke Azzinaro	F	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.8	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	—	23.1%
3	Beckett Currie	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Chris Rubayo	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Justin Vander Baan	C	Sr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
99	Luka Savicevic	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	TJ Berger	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Lafayette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Andrew Phillips	G	So	6'4"	32-32	33.4	13.9	4.6	1.3	1.1	48.1%	31.1%	6.5	71.3%	26.3%
1	Caleb Williams	G	Fr	6'0"	31-31	32.7	16.1	3.6	3.2	2.2	48.3%	33.2%	7.4	87.9%	31.1%
22	Christian Humphrey-Rembert	F	Fr	—	32-31	30.1	7.7	6.6	0.5	0.7	52.4%	37.2%	4.9	66.0%	15.6%
44	Shareef Jackson	F	Fr	6'8"	30-30	22.1	10.0	5.0	1.6	2.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	52.4%	29.6%
0	Ryan Pettit	G	Jr	6'2"	28-3	20.8	5.6	3.3	1.5	0.7	52.0%	25.0%	1.4	58.3%	16.9%
13	Misha Bednostin	C	So	6'11"	28-0	10.0	1.4	1.9	0.8	0.6	57.7%	—	0.0	55.6%	11.1%
2	KaiMani Murdock	G	So	6'6"	25-0	10.6	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.3	49.3%	33.3%	2.5	33.3%	19.1%
34	Luke Bevilacqua	F	Fr	6'11"	25-1	9.1	2.8	1.6	0.5	1.1	58.5%	—	0.0	55.0%	22.1%
24	Folabomi Fayemi	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	6.1	1.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	31.5%	16.7%	0.4	44.4%	21.2%
23	Joshua Wyche	G	So	6'7"	11-0	6.9	0.6	1.6	0.3	0.2	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	25.0%	9.7%
20	Ashton Wallace	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.0%
14	Malik Rasul	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	6.0	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.6	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	18.4%
11	Luke Azzinaro	F	Fr	6'5"	6-0	2.8	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	—	23.1%
3	Beckett Currie	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Chris Rubayo	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Justin Vander Baan	C	Sr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
99	Luka Savicevic	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	TJ Berger	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Lafayette

Against the spread

Season

14-17

Home

4-11

Road

10-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.9

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 77–82	−4.5	L−9.5	141.5	O159	114.0	121.4	67.5
Feb 28	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 83–77	−3.0	W+3.0	144.5	O160	114.5	106.2	72.5
Feb 25	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	W 70–69	+8.5	W+9.5	147.5	U139	112.2	110.6	62.4
Feb 22	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 61–75	+3.5	L−10.5	141.0	U136	103.5	127.3	58.9
Feb 18	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 86–83	+2.0	W+5.0	139.5	O169	120.3	116.1	71.5
Feb 14	LehighAdjEM #273	H	L 69–78	−1.0	L−10.0	140.5	O147	106.8	120.7	64.6
Feb 11	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 54–68	−3.0	L−17.0	148.5	U122	82.5	103.9	65.5
Feb 7	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 63–60	−1.0	W+2.0	143.0	U123	93.6	89.1	67.3
Feb 4	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 50–65	+3.5	L−11.5	141.5	U115	78.7	102.3	63.5
Jan 31	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 67–65	+5.5	W+7.5	143.0	U132	105.4	102.2	63.6

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LafayetteButler

Efficiency

103.4

112.2

112.5

107.4

68.0

69.3

—

Shooting

49.3%

50.9%

50.0%

51.9%

32.2%

32.7%

68.9%

71.9%

32.4%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

15.9%

15.1%

25.8%

34.6%

28.6%

30.0%

7.9%

9.5%

10.5%

11.9%

Style

39.8%

34.9%

46.1%

46.6%

9.7%

15.0%

55.4%

57.2%

24.7%

32.1%

Roster

1.53

2.54

6'4.4"

6'6.1"

83.1%

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Lafayette

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%

Lost

Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.