CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLevien Gymnasium, New York, NY
Elon
Efficiency #228
2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf
@
Columbia
Efficiency #166
2025-26: 16-12 · 5-9 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
72.4
win 30%
Projected
78.5
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: COLU −6.1 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Columbia 68.0, Elon 68.0 → 67.6 possessions
−1.5
Columbia offense vs Elon defense
+3.2
Elon offense vs Columbia defense
+1.0
Projected total
151.0
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Columbia offense vs Elon defense
+3.2
Elon offense vs Columbia defense
−1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Columbia by 6.1
6.1
Elon side ◂▸ Columbia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.9 against a projected 151.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Columbia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Elon is the faster team (67.9, #205 of 365) and Columbia the slower (67.1, #236). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.0
model
Projected team totals
72.4 / 78.5
Elon / Columbia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#209
Elon
68.0#211
Columbia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColumbia
Where Columbia scores: shooting
Columbia shoots an effective 53.5% (#83); Elon allows 54.0% (#300). Expect about 53.9%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassColumbia
Columbia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.9% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for Columbia's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Elon's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Elon at about 40.2% of its shots from three, Columbia about 41.1%.
AdvantageElon
Where Elon scores: ball control
Elon turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#134); Columbia forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#288). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversColumbia
Columbia turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.0% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against Columbia's offense.
ClashElon
Style clash: 3-point volume
Elon takes 43.2% of its shots from three; Columbia runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Elon has the ball
OffenseColumbia allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #137
51.2% #168
+0.7 pt/100
15.9% #134
15.0% #288
+1.9 pt/100
32.2% #116
27.2% #42
-0.2 pt/100
33.5% #222
33.5% #140
-0.2 pt/100
71.4% #225
—
-0.1 pt/100
Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100
Columbia has the ball
OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg
53.5% #83
54.0% #300
+3.8 pt/100
19.3% #333
16.4% #193
-1.5 pt/100
36.1% #23
33.5% #307
+3.3 pt/100
28.6% #337
34.6% #169
-0.4 pt/100
70.1% #271
—
-0.2 pt/100
Columbia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Elonoffense vsColumbiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Elon shoots
Columbia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19855.9%#8458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25635.6%#7739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.9%#35442.1%#30838.0%
Three34.3%#15435.2%#25833.7%
Columbiaoffense vsElondefense
Share of shots by zone
Columbia shoots
Elon allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.8%#16761.8%#29758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.0%#22242.7%#24139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13735.1%#8238.0%
Three35.9%#6136.5%#32833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Elon
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#116
Def reb %
66.5%
#307
Turnover %
15.9%
#134
Forced TO %
16.4%
#193
FT rate
33.5%
#222
FT allowed
34.6%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Columbia
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#241 of 365
Off reb %
36.1%
#23
Def reb %
72.8%
#42
Turnover %
19.3%
#333
Forced TO %
15.0%
#288
FT rate
28.6%
#337
FT allowed
33.5%
#140
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.4

Elon has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#186 of 365) to Columbia’s −1.2 (#241).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
7Chandler CuthrellFSr6'8"32-3228.219.86.51.72.251.9%25.5%3.372.9%40.7%
11Randall Pettus IIGJr6'3"32-3127.311.03.11.21.848.7%35.4%5.976.2%26.7%
0Bryson CokleyGSo6'6"32-1227.012.33.81.31.055.7%39.2%4.980.0%25.1%
12Isaac HarrellFJr6'8"32-3125.87.43.60.50.356.3%35.7%3.572.1%15.4%
3Ja'Juan CarrGSr6'2"32-3125.17.52.74.31.348.5%30.0%1.971.4%19.9%
6Kacper KlaczekFSr6'8"24-2228.011.46.02.81.861.0%44.9%2.964.2%23.1%
22Ned HullGSo6'3"32-017.94.51.80.90.653.2%35.8%3.086.7%15.7%
8DeMarco JohnsonGFr6'4"30-015.33.02.32.41.250.0%21.7%0.857.1%15.6%
5Caleb MiddletonCSo6'11"29-010.23.13.40.30.355.6%—0.066.7%17.6%
33Bryson SpellFSr6'9"23-16.91.30.90.20.536.4%0.0%0.483.3%17.4%
4Iker GarmendiaFFr6'9"15-04.51.31.00.30.325.0%20.0%0.764.3%26.5%
13Savion TaylorGFr6'4"1-04.00.01.01.00.00.0%0.0%3.0—42.7%
25Alex OlanderFSo6'4"2-01.50.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
14Alex BrabecGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Austin WilliamsGSr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Trey O'NeilGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
ElonColumbia
Efficiency
109.8
109.0
112.7
108.6
68.0
68.0
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
53.5%
52.8%
53.2%
34.3%
35.9%
71.4%
70.1%
33.5%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
19.3%
16.4%
15.0%
32.2%
36.1%
33.5%
27.2%
9.4%
10.1%
11.2%
9.9%
Style
43.2%
37.5%
44.1%
47.0%
11.6%
9.9%
54.6%
54.3%
33.3%
32.6%
Roster
2.96
2.59
6'5.8"
6'5.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Elon
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Columbia
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Columbia's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.